If this trade is going to be a harbinger of things to come, we are going to be in for a wild, wild offseason.

Not that long ago, Alex Nedeljkovic – the goalie who looked the future in net for Carolina and was a finalist for Rooke of the Year – was traded to Detroit for a UFA contract and a mid-round pick. We can add one more odd goalie trade to the pile:

It was clarified by ESPN's Emily Kaplan that a minor leaguer was included.

That is your reigning Vezina Trophy winner, who has one year left on his current contract, being traded for basically nothing. We now have the Vezina winner and a Calder finalist traded for Jonathan Bernier, minor-league depth, and a mid-round pick in total. Yeah, it's a bit weird.

Well, let's get to it.

What Chicago gets

The reason for the weird goalie trades is goalies are weird. Remember that Vegas signed Robin Lehner to a five-year, $5M AAV deal strictly because of Fleury's struggles from 2018-20. Then he goes out and wins the Vezina Trophy. Such is hockey. For that reason, we need to take years of performance into account, not just 2021.

Over the last three years, here are Fleury's ranks across the league in various statistical measures that aren't just standard box stats:

• 27^th out of 37 goalies with 4000 minutes at 5-on-5 in high-danger save percentage
• 24^th out of 37 goalies by goals saved above average per 60 minutes
• 15^th out of 33 goalies with 3000 fenwick events at 5-on-5 in goals saved above expected

Charitably, when looking at Fleury's full body of work over the last three years, he's been about average, maybe a bit worse. That is the nature of goaltending: Fleury can be among the absolute elite in the league, or he can cost you games. In total, he works out to be about average.

For fantasy, Fleury leaves one of the best defensive environments in hockey – third-fewest shots allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 the last two years – to one of the worst in Chicago.  Over the last two seasons, the Blackhawks are a distant last in shots allowed per 60 minutes. Shots allowed has a direct effect on Goals Against Average, a key component of any fantasy goaltender. GAA is dictated by goals allowed per 60 minutes, and goals allowed is largely a result of shots allowed; five of the six teams who've allowed the most goals at 5-on-5 over the last two years are the five teams who've allowed the most shots. There is a big, big difference between facing 27 shots a game or 34 shots a game.

That is the problem here. If Fleury is an average goalie making 50 starts for Vegas, the team's defensive ability makes him a potential top-10 goalie in the fantasy game. If Fleury is an average goalie making 50 starts for Chicago, he's a backup in 12-team leagues. In that sense, Fleury needs to repeat close to his 2021 campaign, or Chicago needs to improve massively in one offseason. It is just a lot to ask.

Despite the likelihood of more starts, I'm not sure this good for Fleury in the fantasy game. It is good for Lehner, though, who now gets the net to himself, at least for the most part. They will sign a 1B for him but I expect Lehner to get 50-55 starts now.

Poor Kevin Lankinen. The Blankinen keeps Chicago in the race for three months, falters down the stretch as a rookie, and loses his starting role. It's a tough time in the NHL for goalies.

Who this helps

Robin Lehner

The Chicago Blackhawks

Vegas's hopes of trading for Jack Eichel

Who this hurts

Marc-André Fleury

Kevin Lankinen