Eastern Edge: Fantasy Values for Ristolainen, Leddy, and Nedeljkovic

Brennan Des

2021-07-27

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll look at the fantasy value of a few players that were recently traded. In particular, we'll focus on Rasmus Ristolainen, Nick Leddy and Alex Nedeljkovic.

Rasmus Ristolainen

The Flyers paid a high price to acquire Ristolainen, giving Buffalo a first-round pick in 2021, second-round pick in 2023 and defenseman Robert Hagg. Ristolainen has not been held in high regard over the past few years, with advanced stats highlighting his struggles at both ends of the ice. I feel like because the Flyers overpaid for him in this trade, our perception of Ristolainen has dropped lower than it should have. With the trade being so lopsided, Ristolainen's deficiencies are constantly being discussed as people try to explain how bad this deal was for Philly. With that being said, my initial reaction is that this trade hurts Ristolainen's fantasy value. His most productive years in Buffalo saw him hold a prominent role with the man advantage, which allowed him to post healthy power-play point totals. His path to power-play time in Philly will be much less straightforward, with Ryan Ellis and Ivan Provorov representing the most obvious obstacles. I think it's important to mention that Ristolainen is a versatile option on the power play as he has some experience providing a net-front presence. It's an unusual spot for a defenseman, but his big body is hard to displace. I believe James van Riemsdyk is typically the net-front guy on Philly's power-play, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Flyers test out different looks next year as they attempt to accommodate their new personnel. 

Ristolainen struggled offensively last season as he managed just 18 points in 49 games, which translates to 30 points in your typical 82-game campaign. As we all know, 2021 was far from a typical season. The league and its players navigated a condensed schedule and global pandemic – challenges which were especially prominent for Ristolainen, who contracted COVID early in 2021. He battled through a variety of severe symptoms and undoubtedly felt some fatigue when he eventually returned to the lineup. His struggles were magnified without any time to rest amidst the season's busy schedule. From a fantasy perspective, it's important to highlight his battle with COVID because it correlates with reduced production. Ristolainen had six points in 10 games prior to his bout with the virus, and 12 points in 39 games after it. As a result, I wouldn't read too much into his uncharacteristically low 30-point pace last season. At present, I think we've reached a point where Ristolainen's perceived value has fallen below his actual fantasy value due to the bad press he's received from this trade. I don't think his offensive production is doomed as a result of his new surroundings, and I still think he can be an effective multicategory defenseman next year.

Nick Leddy

The 30-year-old defenseman represents an underrated fantasy asset heading into the 2021-2022 campaign. Leddy should have more offensive freedom next year, leaving behind the defensively focused system that coach Barry Trotz runs in New York. Although he may encounter some competition for power-play time in the form of Filip Hronek and Troy Stecher, Leddy possesses the most power-play prowess of Detroit's blueliners and should see a major role with the man advantage. The 23-year-old Hronek was a prominent piece of the top unit last year when the Red Wings converted on just 11.4-percent of their power-play opportunities. Thus, it makes sense to hand the reins over to Leddy, making Detroit more of a threat with the man advantage. An improved power-play would also bode well for the fantasy value of young forwards like Jakub Vrana, Dylan Larkin and Filip Zadina.

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Alex Nedeljkovic

When discussing Rasmus Ristolainen, I said that his perceived fantasy value fell below his actual fantasy value, due to the bad press he received when the Flyers overpaid for him. I think the opposite may be true for Nedeljkovic, who was traded for the small price of Jonathan Bernier and a third-round pick in 2021. Since he was acquired at such a low cost, most of the media coverage surrounding Nedeljkovic supports the idea that his current value outweighs the price that Detroit paid to acquire him. In other words, he was undervalued in the real-world. Sometimes, the line between real-world value and fantasy value becomes blurred. I think that may be the case here, with Nedeljkovic perceived as a more valuable fantasy asset than he actually is. Sure, he was excellent last season, sporting a 15-5-3 record alongside a 1.90 GAA and .932 save percentage. However, that's an incredibly small sample size and he benefitted from playing behind one of the league's best bluelines. In addition, he's only 25-years of age and we've often seen goaltenders experience ups and downs early in their careers as they find their footing in the NHL. Nedeljkovic seems to have a bright future ahead of him but given the state of Detroit's defense and the unpredictability of young goaltenders, I'd prefer to stay away from him in one year-leagues, where I think he'll be overvalued.

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