Winnipeg's blue line overhaul continues. It is a necessary overhaul because it was the glaring weakness of the team last year, and really has been ever since the retirement of Dustin Byfuglien. They are trying to piece it back together and managed to retain Dylan DeMelo through the Expansion Draft. Winnipeg went out and got themselves another guy to slide into the top-4 mix:

Just a third-round pick goes back the other way.

Let's get to it.

What Winnipeg gets

It really, really depends which version shows up for Winnipeg. For years, Schmidt was one of the more underrated defencemen in the league; he was just stuffed down the depth chart on a Cup-chasing Washington team that trusted other players more. But he showed promise at both ends of the ice, shown in his offensive and defensive impacts in his final three years with the Caps (Evolving Hockey):

That isn't elite or anything, but good across the board and he was just 25 at the time.

Without just launching a bunch of charts, there's been a trade-off since. His defensive impacts have worsened, but his offensive impacts have gotten better, and that's across both Vegas and Vancouver. This past season was his worst year and it's tough what to make of it. I have often said I will not discredit players with track records for a bad COVID-shortened season. His team, specifically, appeared to deal with the worst outbreak in the league, too.

All that is to say we have evidence of Schmidt's defensive abilities falling off even before he got to Vancouver, but his offensive skills falling off was new. I am willing to write off a decline in offensive impacts because of a very weird year, but the defensive concerns are real.

The offensive ability is important here because Schmidt has typically been a very good playmaking defenceman in his career. He was at least 80^th percentile in shot assists (passes leading to shots), zone exits with control, and zone entries with control for three years before Vancouver. If he can get back to being that guy, he goes to a team that has at least four potential 20-goal scorers and three 30-goal threats. An environment to improve his assist totals exists, he just needs to be the guy he was his entire career before he got to Vancouver. I think he can be an assist machine for them.

Then we get to the power play. They used both Neal Pionk and Josh Morrissey at times last year, and if I'm not mistaken, used five forwards a few times as well. There is an opportunity for Schmidt to be the PP1 guy for them this year. I think Ville Heinola is the guy long-term, but they don't seem very high on him in the immediate-term, so Schmidt could sneak the PP1 QB spot out of camp.  

Schmidt played over 20 minutes a night last year and he should again this year. If he gets top PP minutes, we're looking at 22+ minutes per game. We are looking at genuine 50-point potential with triple-digit blocks (he doesn't hit much, though). Keep an eye on training camps.

Who this helps

Nate Schmidt

Connor Hellebuyck

Jack Rathbone

Winnipeg's top-6

Who this hurts

Josh Morrissey

Neal Pionk