Well, what a week last week was. We saw blockbuster trades, an expansion draft, and the entry draft all squeezed into a span of 3-4 days. I would not blame anyone for having missed a deal or a trade here and there, so I'll link all our stuff quickly.

All our Ramblings are archived here and all our trade/signing analysis are saved here. Ian covered the Reinhart and Voracek/Atkinson trades over the weekend and I will get to those in a minute. But anyone that may have missed our fantasy analysis on the Bean trade, the OEL trade, or Buchnevich's deal, everything is included in there. There are also smaller deals that and other types of analysis included in the Ramblings as well. It has just been a very busy time around here at Dobber Hockey and this week presumes to be just as busy, if with fewer official events.

*

Now that the Entry Draft is over with, it's a great time to read up on the future fantasy stars you'll need to know and the teams they're going to. Check out our 2021 Prospects Report to get all the information you need here.

*

Yesterday was the last day to qualify RFAs and two big names were not: Ondrej Kase of Boston and Pius Suter of Chicago. Both players become unrestricted free agents. For Kase, it's clear his injuries have gotten the best of him for a few years now and Boston is just moving on. If he can come all the way back, Kase is a fringe first liner. It is just a matter of getting health, but there should be a lot of suitors.

Suter is weird. The Blackhawks could really use the centre depth, considering what happened just last year with Kirby Dach and Jonathan Toews. Seems they think otherwise. Suter looked like a middle-six centre to me.

Nick Ritchie also wasn’t qualified by Boston. Another middle-six winger who may have just commanded more than they were willing to pay.

*

I am going to talk about UFAs in a minute, but one potential name was taken off the board:

Hearing Vegas @GoldenKnights are closing in on an extension to keep D Alec Martinez off the market.

Expect Martinez to come in around $5 million, perhaps a little more, on a three-year deal.@DFOHockey

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) July 26, 2021

A nice little deal for Martinez.

*

The Panthers cleared up one of their signees:

Sam Bennett 4x$4.4 in FLA

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 26, 2021

It seems the team is betting he'll be more like he was with them and less like he was in Calgary. I think he will, too.

Just so everyone is on the same page here: Bennett over-achieved in Florida, but that doesn't mean it wasn't warranted to some degree. With him and Jonathan Huberdeau on the ice, the Panthers controlled a whopping 73.6 percent of the expected goals and had an xG rate per 60 minutes over 3.8, which is just beyond elite. (For comparison, Hyman-Matthews-Marner was just over 3.9 for the season, and that led the league.) Even a 20 percent decline in expected goals rate would see Huberdeau/Bennett still among the elite in the league. So, even if there's a downturn, they could still be great together. We shouldn't expect Bennett to put up 95 points, but 60+? That's very doable.

*

As much as I'd like to dig even deeper on the trades and signings we had last week, and I'm sure there is stuff I've missed, we have to keep looking forward. Tomorrow (July 28^th) is free agency so we don't really have much time to catch our collective breath here. We have to look forward to what could be a wild, wild free agency.

(I only say that because a lot of hockey insiders seem to be indicating a lot of movement this summer, both with signings and trades. We have a flat cap and it seems some teams are under pressure to do some cap clearing. Whether this is all posturing or conjecture, we'll see. Just judging by some of the blockbusters we've seen and the lack of movement we saw last offseason, maybe this will be the case. We'll find out tomorrow.)

How about some predictions? No better way to spend our time than by researching some stuff that will probably be mostly useless information in 30 hours anyway. Such is the NHL life.

I want to talk about Alex Ovechkin. It sure seems there hasn't been a lot of chatter about this particular UFA considering, you know, he's Alex Ovechkin. I think part of it is we all assume he'll be re-signed by now given his history with the team, but he hasn't yet. He is a day from free agency, at which point he'll be able to sign anywhere. Again, I think we all expect him to be back with Washington… except…?

Where could he realistically go? For sake of argument, let's assume he's at least testing the UFA waters and some teams want to sign him. We are probably looking at teams at or near their Cup window that have cap space. That really narrows down potential suitors. There are always team that clear out space for a move like this, but predicting those mavericks doesn't feel like a good use of time. I feel like if teams are going to do that, just go the whole way for Jack Eichel. (Please note I don't think all these teams are bidding for Ovechkin now, they just theoretically have the space and are in a spot to potentially sign him.)

Three teams that I think could be heavy on the Ovechkin bidding wars assuming that he and the Caps just aren't taking their time on finishing touches for another deal.

Los Angeles

Hey, here's the team I bring up basically every time a big name becomes available. As always, the reasons are three-fold: they have two future Hall of Famers on the roster that are still varying levels of good signed to big-AAV deals, they have an absolutely loaded cupboard of high-end prospects, and they have loads of cap space. If the vets and the future superstars all progress together over the course of the 2021-22 season, if all goes right, I think Los Angeles can be a threat in the West as soon as 2022-23 and a true Cup contender a year after. Again, that's if everything falls into place, but they at least have the pieces necessary to make that possibility a reality.

Do the bright lights of Los Angeles and the chance to join one of the top up-and-coming teams appeal to Ovechkin? If he didn't have a Cup, I would say no, but he has his trophy so maybe he feels different? Only Ovechkin knows. What I know is the Kings have a full roster, lots of prospects, no significant RFAs, over $13M in cap space, and is just a great destination for free agents. Maybe we see Ovi in the purple and gold in October?

St. Louis

Personally, I believe this to be a longshot. Ovechkin is a huge personality and that type of player just doesn't seem to fit what the St. Louis Blues have as a franchise identity. They are very much around everyone filling their roles and doing what they're told, not something that is really Ovechkin's game. His game is playing the way he knows how, which is how he became perhaps the greatest goal scorer of all time. Any attempts to greatly change that wouldn't work out.

At the same time, the Blues are still firmly in their Cup window and are losing both Mike Hoffman and Jaden Schwartz to free agency. They have cap space, but they also have to sign the newly-acquired Pavel Buchnevich, and they still need to sign guys like Kyrou, Thomas, Barbashev, and Sanford. It seems possible that they just sign their RFAs and move along.

At the same time, none of their RFAs besides Buch will probably command a significant contract just because of a lack of true scoring in their careers. They could trade either of Kyrou or Thomas for a return to clear some space, but they likely just keep their guys.

Out of the three teams named, this is the longest shot, but they have the cap space if they make a move or two and we know they want another Cup.

NY Rangers

All summer, we've heard the rumblings of Jack Eichel being traded to the Rangers. This very much remains in play and to be honest, the Rangers don't need another winger. They traded Buchnevich for peanuts because they just wanted to clear space and wingers from the roster. Panarin, Kreider, Kakko, Lafrenière, Goodrow, and Kravtsov figure to be the team's top-9 wingers, in some combination. Aside from Kravstov, each of those players is either a proven NHLer or had a successful 2021 season (or they're a number-1 pick). Is the best use of New York's short-term cap space to sign another winger and push Kravtsov to the bottom-6? I don't think so, but I also didn't think they should trade a first-line winger for a fourth-line winger and a non-first rounder, so what do I know.

The Rangers truly believe they're in their Cup window now and there aren't many bigger markets to play in in America than with the Rangers. If Ovechkin wants to stay in in the East and have a chance at a Cup, the Rangers may be his best chance given his contract demands. Whether the Rangers feel the same is another question entirely. My guess is they stay focused on another centre, but we'll see.

Those are the potential Ovi landing spots I see. What do you guys think?

*

Some other potential UFA landing spots, rapid-fire.

Ryan Suter – From rumours, it appears he wants four years on his next deal and that's a big ask for a defenceman turning 37 years old in January. It isn't a perfect comparison, but I think he ends up closer to what Kevin Shattenkirk got (around 3x$4M) and is off to Boston.

Keith Yandle – One thing Montreal hasn't been afraid to do is to play a primarily-offensive defenceman to help along their power play. Yandle fits this bill perfectly and should come relatively cheap given his fall from grace in Florida.

Paul Stastny – If the Rangers don't land Eichel, he makes a lot of sense for them. He will be cheap-ish to sign and is still capable of being a good playmaker. With that said, Phillip Danault makes more sense for them than Stastny does. They need the defensive ability.

EDIT: Well Stastny re-signed with Winnipeg, so we’ll just transfer all that to Danault and the Rangers.

Ryan Getzlaf – Though I talked about Ovechkin to the Blues earlier, I think Getzlaf makes a lot more sense. It would give them another veteran centre, allow Brayden Schenn to move to the wing (or leave Schenn/Thomas at centre and move Getzlaf to the wing), and gives Robert Thomas a bit of a safety net. He won't be very expensive, either.

Alex Edler – Assuming he doesn't just return to Vancouver, he has "future New York Islander" written all over him. He is reliable defensively, is a left shot (which they need), and will block any shot that comes his way. He is a Barry Trotz defenceman already and he doesn't even know it.

Antti Raanta – While Carolina makes the most sense here, I wonder if he ends up in Colorado. The Avalanche would be very familiar with how good he is and they need a proven goalie now, not a goalie that could be good in 2-3 years.