Fantasy Take: Danault Goes West to Los Angeles
Michael Clifford
2021-07-28
All season, my main goal has been to get the Los Angeles Kings to start going for it. They have Anze Kopitar signed for three more years, and that is effectively their window with the current core. Beyond that, they'll be turning the team over to Byfield, Turcotte, Clarke et al. In my mind, I thought they could take advantage of all these prospects on ELCs and start building a contender now that could see Kopitar make another Cup run before his deal ends.
The Kings started down that road trading for Viktor Arvidsson a couple weeks ago and now have made another big addition:
The AAV works out to $5.5M a season. It is a big raise from his last contract (a little over $3M AAV) and that makes a big difference for cap-league owners. Danault has one 50-point season to his name, no 60-point seasons, and has never had a season of two shots per game in his career. He is good for face-off wins, hits, and assists. It makes him a mixed bag fantasy-wise, because we can't say "he's a power forward" because he doesn't score enough and we can't say, "he's a play-making centre" because he hits a lot more than the Wennbergs and Scheifele's of the world. He doesn't fit into a neat box, which makes him kind of fun.
What Danault was signed for is his defensive ability. There are questions as to just how much is on him and how much is on Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher. As a trio, they formed arguably the best 5-on-5 line in hockey. Apart, they were typically much worse without each other.
But even without Gallagher and Tatar, Danault was still better than average this year defensively (from HockeyViz):
Remember: even without those guys, Danault was often charged with the shutdown role. Being better-than-average while missing your typical wingers in a shutdown role is very good.
I went and looked at 2019-20 and it was the same thing: above-average defensively without both Tatar and Gallagher on the ice. At least at the defensive end, there shouldn't be issues with Danault.
Where the issues might come is driving offensive play. Without those wingers, Montreal suffered greatly offensive with Danault on the ice, and it's a wonder if it was his other line mates or him that was the issue. Regardless, this is a guy near the top of the league in shot assists basically every season, so as long as he gets some decent line mates, he'll be fine.
The kicker here is the division. Besides Vegas, there is Vancouver, the two Alberta teams, Seattle, and the two other California teams. He will be tasked with shutting down some top centres like Elias Pettersson and Connor McDavid, but with good line mates he should be just fine offensively.
I am not expecting much for points here. A 40-point season should suffice. The Kings' kids are still developing and beyond Viktor Arvidsson, there isn't much for proven scorers on the wing. He may be tasked with a true shutdown role with guys like Austin Wagner and Blake Lizotte, in which case his fantasy value is neutered. Regardless, he won't get top PP minutes.
In the real world, this is a good signing for LA. It bridges them between now and when the kids are all ready to go. In fantasy, this could be a good deal for him, but it depends what his role will be. For right now, a 40-point season with 100 hits is firmly within reach, and that plays in deeper leagues.
What this does is insulate the young centres like Vilardi and Byfield, but it does limit their immediate upside as well. It is good for the team but bad for fantasy in that regard.
Who this helps
Jesperi Kotkaneimi
Jake Evans
Austin Wagner
Who this hurts
Quinton Byfield
Montreal goaltending