With Colorado re-signing Gabriel Landeskog to his monster extension, it seemed likely Brandon Saad would be moving on from the Avalanche. Exactly where he would land might take some time, but that he was gone was pretty much a sure thing.

The 28-year-old winger made his decision on Thursday, and he's going to a rival:

Saad is coming off a season where he had 15 goals in 44 games, not a bad season at all. The concern was his ice time fell off the map, but he may not have those concerns in St. Louis. Let's dig in.

The first thing about Saad is that he's an excellent 5-on-5 goal scorer but he just can't translate it to the power play. He has 44 power-play points in his 642-game career, and a lot of those came in his first Chicago stint (half, in fact).

That is Saad's problem in fantasy: he just doesn't have upside. He is a very safe player; we can probably get 20 goals and 45 points out of him this year in his sleep. But he doesn't have a 30-goal season since 2016 nor has been on pace for 30 goals in any of those seasons.

Saad goes to a St. Louis team that did lose Jaden Schwartz in the offseason and could lose Vladimir Tarasenko in a trade. Theoretically, those are two top-6 spots that opened up. They did bring in Pavel Buchnevich, however, and Jordan Kyrou showed well at times this year. Could Saad be used in a hybrid third-line role with Robert Thomas? That is very possible.

In reality, it's hard to see Saad not starting in the top-6. That is good for his ice time, but without killing penalties or significant PP production, how much can we really expect from him? Again, some secondary PP minutes and 14 even-strength minutes a night isn't enough to support a lot of fantasy value.

There is also the problem of his across-the-board production. In his career, Saad has never reached these marks in any season:

• 30 assists
• 25 PIMs
• 60 hits
• 35 blocks

So, if we were to look at Saad's best marks in different scoring categories across his entire career, the absolute most we can expect from him is something like: 30 goals, 30 assists, 20 PIMs, 240 shots, 50 hits, 30 blocks, 10 PPPs. That is his absolute max upside. That is a good season in points-only leagues, and a good season in multi-cat leagues. But if his absolute maximum upside is "a good season," then what are his median projections? A lot worse. I don't have projections ready but something close to 20 goals, 40 points and 180 shots feels about right. That just… isn't a lot for a winger.

Saad is a player where there is a chasm between his real-world value and his fantasy value. In the real world, he's a fantastic second-line winger. In fantasy, he just doesn't bring enough across the board, and lack of PP production caps his upside. I will wait to see ADP data before making a determination, but he's probably a pass for me in shallower 12-team leagues.