Fantasy Take: Tampa adds Corey Perry

Michael Clifford

2021-07-29

After losing to Tampa in the 2020 Finals in the summer bubble, and then losing to Tampa in the 2021 Finals as a member of the Montreal Canadiens, it appears as if Corey Perry has had enough. He is done losing to Tampa Bay, so he's decided to join the Bolts instead:

Perry is coming off a successful season with Montreal, Cup run aside. He had 9 goals, 21 points, 56 hits and 7 PPPs in 49 contests. That works out to 15 goals, 35 points, 94 hits, and 12 PPPs over the course of a full season. It is a far cry from what he could do five years ago, but that's still useful in deeper multi-cat leagues.

What does he bring to Tampa? Let's get to it.

First, he's a hard-nosed winger. He is very much in the vein of now-teammate Patrick Maroon, in that his game is best below the goal line and in front of the net. He is not a sniper and he's not a grand playmaker (though we'll get back to that).

We just need to be careful here. Despite playing most of the regular season on Montreal's "fourth" line, the Habs spread out their ice time a lot; their 12 regular forwards played between 12:50 and 18:10 last year. Conversely, Tampa Bay's 12 regular forwards were between 10:55 and 18:30. Tampa played their top-6 a lot, their third line a little, and their fourth line rarely. That wasn't Montreal's M.O., so if the Bolts continue this trend and Perry starts on the fourth line, he could lose 2-3 minutes of ice time. Losing a quarter of your ice time when you don't have much to start with will kill your fantasy value.

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Perry's shot rates have declined four years in a row to a career-low in 2021. He was also well below average in playmaking metrics like zone entries and high-danger passes. It does seem as most of his puck skills are starting to fall off greatly.

He can still be useful on the power play but Tampa loads the top unit and without injuries, Perry probably doesn't get there. Secondary PP minutes in Tampa Bay combined with fourth-line minutes means there just isn't much fantasy value here. We will get a better answer when we see lines in training camp, but for now he's waiver fodder in almost every format.

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