Ramblings – Wait Times for Drafting Goalies (Aug 2)
Dobber
2021-08-02
The Fantasy Guide is out August 14, which is a very fast turnaround (fastest ever).
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Non-fantasy relevant mostly, but some thoughts on the Jack Eichel situation. For those of you who didn't know, Eichel's agents put out a statement saying they felt Eichel should have been traded by now and using some strong words pretty much said Buffalo needs to get moving ASAP.
The Buffalo Sabres have a reputation, or are quickly gaining one, of being a "garbage team" is a direct quote tweeted to me by a couple of my followers. So what can a new GM do in such a situation to try to fix that reputation? Well, for starters he can do his best to make a Jack Eichel trade a home run. Next, give Eichel his blessing to have the damn surgery. You're trading him anyway, let it happen. If the surgery screws it up that's the next team's problem. This should have been immediately – Adams dropped the ball there big time.
But – the agents were out of line. Adams can't bring down his asking price too much, other than negotiating the finer points of it. And now, with that statement, every team with an offer on the table just tweaked it downwards. Every team. Now Adams is even further away from a trade. If I'm Adams, I am absolutely enraged. I still hold the line. I want a Joe Sakic/Matt Duchene-type of patience and end result. And if the agents just made that process worse and take longer, then so be it. That's on them. If I'm Eichel, I fire the agents. Incredibly unprofessional. And if that statement was Jack Eichel's brilliant idea, then the agents need to control their client. I could go on about this ridiculousness probably forever…but I'll save that for when I'm having a few beers with my friends and I'm speaking, not typing!
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Also well known by this time, but I wanted to put in my two cents – the Evander Kane situation. He was accused by an Instagram account that is apparently from his wife accusing him of betting on NHL games that he played in, among other things (like abandoning her and her child). The NHL is investigating and if this turns out to be true, I don't see how Kane plays this season (or possibly not at all – if MLB's treatment of Pete Rose is any indication). Once again, for the second straight offseason, Kane owners in keeper leagues get to worry about if they simply lose a good asset for nothing.
Kane's response:
Robin Lehner also chimed in for his former teammate's defense here.
Whatever happens, I hope it is resolved quickly in the best interests of the children. They come first. We don't want to screw them up before life even truly begins for them.
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Washington has little NHL depth. That's just how they run their team. Last year they had their full roster signed and set, with the exception of Conor Sheary and Daniel Sprong taking turns getting into the lineup. We knew their roster a month before the season started.
With Toronto…it's the opposite. For three years now, they sign 100 players and have them do battle. The best roster comes out on top – although "best" isn't necessarily true as politics play a role – why else did Joe Thornton and Wayne Simmonds get regular ice time? But theoretically, it's the "best". This is a great strategy for the Leafs, and I applaud them for it.
But, from a player's standpoint, it's a stupid idea for an unproven or fringe NHL player agreeing to a contract there. After seeing Alexander Barabanov, Travis Boyd, Jimmy Vesey, Denis Malgin – all these players sign there last year, plus Nic Petan – and which one of them got ice time? The answer is Vesey. And he didn't even win out because he was the best, he won out because he was the most NHL-proven. And in the end, he didn't do anything. Meanwhile, Barabanov did great – as soon as he went to San Jose. Makes you think he should have signed there to begin with.
So why would a player sign in Toronto after seeing this for the last two years? (The year before was Kenny Agostino, Pontus Aberg, Ilya Mikheyev, Nick Shore, plus prospects Trevor Moore and Dmytro Timashov were ready to get a spot). Only Mikheyev and Moore won out, while the rest were press box or minors. This year we have Denis Malgin, Michael Bunting, Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, Josh Ho-Sang, Adam Brooks, Nick Robertson, Brett Seney, Joey Anderson, Wayne Simmonds and Kurtis Gabriel. For four spots. Nick Ritchie is pretty much assured of his spot, so the rest battle for three. Only one of which is in the top six, so if Malgin (for example) wins the third spot but is stuck on the fourth line then that's even worse. Why sign there when you can sign with Washington or Columbus or any number of teams and pretty much just battle one guy for a spot? My guess is that Simmonds, Bunting and Kase win the other spots. But why would Bunting risk his career on that? I get that he's from Toronto (nearby to me in Scarborough, in fact), but it's still quite a risk.
Anyway, if I'm a coveted undrafted European that NHL teams are trying to sign, there is no way I would consider the Leafs under this regime. I wouldn't get a sniff, no matter how well I played. Every year, for three years now, when I put the Fantasy Guide together it's the Toronto roster that's the most bloated.
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Same goes for defensemen. Mikko Lehtonen? Calle Rosen? And now we have Brennan Menell. He didn't want to play for the Wild when I think he could have made the team, so he goes to the KHL. Now he's traded to the Leafs and immediately signs with them. And for what? I doubt he makes the team. The No.7 spot is between him, Timothy Liljegren, Alex Biega and Carl Dahlstrom. It's winnable, but what's the prize – 12 minutes a night and no PP time?
Anyway, it's the job of the agent to see these things and get their client on a team where they stand the best chance of succeeding.
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Don't forget, in fantasy leagues, when you draft a goalie you usually have to wait until he is 25 before he significantly helps your pro team. And that's on the high end. The elite goalies may be a couple of years earlier. Carey Price was 21 and 'kind of' helped. But he didn't start really helping until he was 23. Carter Hart was 'kind of' helping us at 21 with 43 mostly good games (24 wins). But then last year happened. So assuming he turns it around this year, he'll be 23. These are exceptions. Most goalies follow the Thatcher Demko path. Kaapo Kahkonen was 24 last year and he 'kind of' helped. He's two years away from 'really' helping, making him 26. This is all normal for goalies. So don't go out and draft Jesper Wallstedt expecting him to help in two or three years. And he's one of the best goalies to come out of the draft in a decade. So at 23 (i.e. 'early') I'd expect him to help fantasy leagues. By then, Kahkonen will be 29 and either in the midst of a big contract, or he never got going. Same idea with Yaroslav Askarov and Spencer Knight. With Knight – he was awesome last year. But there's 10,000,000 reasons why Sergei Bobrovsky gets all the starts this season. And on this Florida team, Bobrovsky can have a terrible year again and still pile up the wins.
The point is – be patient and understand your timelines. Rule of thumb: goalies need to be 25. So in my dynasty league I look at drafting them when they are 21-23, and pick based on organizational needs two or three years into the future.
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Marc-Andre Fleury has this message for you:
This pushes the Blackhawks from 20th to 15th or even higher. Huge impact here. And now Kevin Lankinen becomes backup, Collin Delia and Malcolm Subban become career minor leagues. I still believe Delia is better than Lankinen, and his numbers hinted at this in the final month. But he's 27 now, so his window has closed.
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Still with goaltenders and the wait times needed, Anthony Stolarz was a high draft pick (45th overall in 2012) and a highly-touted prospect. He's huge, at 6-5. But an injury cut his 2014-15 and 2016-17 short, and nearly wiped out all of 2017-18 and into 2018-19. So yeah, those are key development years. And in 2018-19 when he returned, he took a couple of months to get acclimated so let's give him a mulligan for those numbers (which weren't great). Neither Philadelphia nor Edmonton gave him that mulligan – Philly traded him away and Edmonton didn't re-sign him.
But in 2019-20, with a partial season under his belt to shake the rust off, the Ducks took a chance on him. He dominated for San Diego (21-12-8, 0.922 SV%) and had a great one-game stint with Anaheim. But then the pandemic cut it short. Last year he mostly played for the Taxi Squad, but in a conditioning stint went undefeated for San Diego. Late in the season the Ducks gave him a start and he was great, so they went back to him again and again. He ended up 4-3-0, 2.20 GAA and 0.926 SV%. Just eight games played but was the best goalie for the Ducks last season. Now, at 27 years of age, he will finally be a backup goalie – and injury-free for two years. I just finished saying that 27 was probably too late for Delia, but now I'm contradicting myself with Stolarz. He didn't have a real chance due to bad injury timing. But now? John Gibson hasn't been good for two years now, and he is always missing a few games here, a few games there for injuries. Could Stolarz get in more starts than expected? I'm seriously considering drafting him in my dynasty league in the final round.
Craig Anderson was 27 years old when he finally got in a career-high (at the time) 31 games for Florida in 2008-09. It was enough for Colorado to give him a contract and the rest is history.
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Just a thought but – say Henrik Lundqvist gets medical clearance (as he’s reportedly awaiting)… is Arizona waiting to make a play there? It would be an attempt to keep the fans happy while they tank this year. They can’t possibly be rolling into the season with Carter Hutton and Josef Korenar…
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See you Monday.