Eastern Edge: Analyzing Impact Moves in Atkinson and Reinhart

Brennan Des

2021-08-10

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll continue discussing the fantasy impact of recent moves around the conference. In particular, we'll focus on Cam Atkinson joining the Flyers, Will Butcher in Buffalo and Sam Reinhart in Florida.

Cam Atkinson

In moving from Columbus to Philly, Atkinson sees a significant upgrade in supporting cast. He leaves behind a team that struggled offensively in recent years, devoid of high-end playmakers to complement his scoring ability. Atkinson seemed to peak in 2018-2019 when he posted 41 goals and 28 assists for a nice 69 points in 80 appearances. Since then, he's scored at a disappointing 50-point pace. You'll recall that Atkinson shared the ice with superstar Artemi Panarin during the 2018-2019 campaign, so it's tempting to discount his offensive success that year as a product of playing with the Russian superstar. That argument would be further fueled by his underwhelming output since Panarin's departure. However, we're quick to forget that Atkinson posted 27 and 35 goals, respectively, in the two seasons before Panarin joined the Jackets – so he clearly possesses some goal-scoring ability. Playing on Philly's top line beside strong playmakers like Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier could help Atkinson rediscover his place near the top of goal-scoring leaderboards. However, there's a chance he slots in on the second line, beside Kevin Hayes and one of Joel Farabee or Travis Konecny. While those guys certainly possess strong offensive talent, I don't think their skillsets represent a slam-dunk fit for Atkinson. While there's some uncertainty regarding his place at even strength, Atkinson's power-play role is even harder to project because Philly has an abundance of competent power-play personnel. Fortunately, he's never been reliant on power-play production to boost his overall point totals. As such, it wouldn't be the end of the world if he found himself on the second unit next year. 

Last season was especially disappointing for Atkinson because he didn't live up to his reputation as one of the league's highest volume shooters. In recent years, he managed roughly 3.5 shots per game, but last year he averaged just 2.8 shots a night. The decrease may be explained by his line mates as Atkinson saw stretches beside either Patrik Laine or Oliver Bjorkstrand last season. Those guys are high-volume shooters as well and may have taken away some shots from Atkinson.

Will Butcher

The 26-year-old defenseman had an excellent rookie campaign back in 2017-2018, posting 44 points in 81 games. That impressive point total was fueled by 23 points on the power play as Butcher largely benefitted from playing on a unit with Taylor Hall, who was in peak form at the time. It's unlikely that Butcher will be able to match that level of offense as a member of the Sabres – a team devoid of offensive talent. Butcher is unlikely to see a high volume of offensive opportunity in Buffalo as he'll always be behind Rasmus Dahlin on the depth chart. He may provide some value in an increased role if Dahlin misses time next year, but I think it's safe to say that Butcher's fantasy value has dropped since last season.

Sam Reinhart

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Reinhart was one of the few bright spots in Buffalo last year as he led the Sabres with 25 goals in 54 appearances. To provide some perspective, Victor Olofsson and Casey Mittelstadt finished second and third in team scoring, with just 13 and 10 goals, respectively. No one else on the team finished with a double-digit goal total. Reinhart is a strong two-way forward who has consistently scored at a 60-point pace in recent years. His fantasy value seems to increase with this move from Buffalo to Florida, in which he abandons a sinking ship to join what is arguably the league's most talented forward corps. However, its' important to recognize that the abundance of talent in Florida's forward group is a double-edged sword. On one hand, Reinhart is virtually guaranteed to share the ice with a superstar – either on the first line with Aleksander Barkov or on the second with Jonathan Huberdeau. But on the other hand, with four capable lines, it's unlikely that Reinhart sees as much ice time in Florida as he did in Buffalo – where he was always a key component of the team's one good line and skated around 20 minutes a night. Fortunately, the threat of reduced ice time is easily outweighed by the insulation that Florida's depth provides. In Buffalo, the opposition would focus on shutting down Reinhart's line because it was the only one capable of producing offense. In contrast, Florida's deep roster makes it harder to focus on shutting down just one line, so Reinhart should benefit from facing lower quality opponents.

                In Buffalo, Reinhart held a prominent power-play role as he saw a 70-percent share of the team's total PP time. He managed decent levels of production, but the offense didn't really flow through him. As a result, I don't think there's any urgency for Florida to incorporate Reinhart into their top power-play unit. The Panthers have been pretty dangerous with the man advantage in recent years and five spots on the top unit seem to be accounted for by Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett and Patric Hornqvist. Hornqvist is probably the least talented of that group but his net-front role will be hard for Reinhart to replicate. As a result, Reinhart's most realistic path to the top unit, aside from injury-related openings, would be swapping places with Bennett. It's certainly possible, but I think the most likely scenario sees Reinhart on the second unit, which would represent a downgrade in both power-play opportunity and unit quality compared to Buffalo.

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