The Journey: An Early Look at the 2022 Calder Trophy Race

Hadi Kalakeche

2021-08-14

The 2021-2022 NHL season is set to commence on October 12, and is already shrouded with mystery as multiple teams drastically changed their projected lineup in the last few weeks. From blockbuster trades to shrewd free agency pick-ups, teams such as the New Jersey Devils have gone from bottom-standing clubs to playoff race contenders overnight, and others such as the St. Louis Blues have further solidified their ability to make a Stanley Cup run.

The most important change in teams' lineups, however, will likely come from within the organization: so many promising NHL prospects are on the brink of their first shot at the big league, especially after COVID-19 opened the door for many of them to play in North America and earn some level of professional experience. This includes high-profile prospects who have a solid shot at earning the Calder trophy, and being top NHL players in their respective positions.

Prospects like Peyton Krebs, Cole Perfetti, and Jamie Drysdale, who will all likely have excellent NHL careers, won't even make the five-player shortlist I will present below – not due to anything particularly wrong with their game, but simply due to how unbelievably talented the 2021-2022 crop of rookies will be.

Trevor Zegras, C, Anaheim Ducks

The most likely candidate for the 2022 Calder Trophy, Zegras started the season off with a World Juniors tournament in which he was without a doubt the best player, scoring 18 points in only seven games. He then joined the Ducks organization and played just under the 25 games required to lose his Calder eligibility, earning three goals and 10 assists in 24 games. He was then returned to the AHL, picking up where he had left off prior to his call-up and finishing with 21 points in 17 games with the San Diego Gulls.

The hallmark of Zegras' game is his elite playmaking, which he combines with his high-end skating to create chances and put the puck in dangerous areas consistently for his teammates. He has an elite set of hands that blend with his passing quite well to create a threatening arsenal of behind-the-back and spin-o-rama passes that will leave opponents second-guessing his intentions at all times.

He also has a lethal shot; he can release off either foot, can shoot off-balance, and his intentions are very well hidden on his blade, which adds a layer of difficulty for goaltenders as they often have to wait and see the puck's trajectory instead of reading off Zegras' body language.

He can receive pucks in-stride and make quick adjustments to get the puck in a position to maximize power and accuracy, even in tight quarters. His ability to stickhandle in a phone booth especially shines in this area of his game, as he needs no time and space at all to make his adjustments, as he showed when he scored his first NHL goal.

If anyone is going to lead the 2021-2022 crop of rookies in points, I'm betting on Zegras. He adds above-average defensive involvement and physicality to his already-mesmerizing offensive game, which makes him a good multi-cat pick-up on top of being the runaway points-only option among first-year players. If you're picking a rookie in any fantasy league at all, there's no going wrong with Zegras.

Cole Caufield, RW, Montréal Canadiens

Caufield's game is simple, yet so effective: he scores goals. Doesn't matter at what level, doesn't matter who he plays with, doesn't matter how big his opponents are, the 5 -7 winger will either find or create a pocket of space to exploit, and release the puck faster than anyone can say "tiny". He has a long-lasting track record of scoring above or around a goal per game, which spans from his high school league to the AHL, and he earned 12 points in 20 playoff games for the Habs as they made their way to the Stanley Cup final.

His shot is mechanically close to perfect. A player with his build would usually struggle to put power behind a wrist shot, but Caufield's release is already among the most powerful in the league due to refined weight transfer and wrist mechanics. He finds corners with regularity, and constantly misdirects defensemen and goaltenders into reading the wrong intentions to add a couple percentage points to his shooting efficiency.

His skating is smooth and elusive. Although he lacks top-end straight-line speed, his acceleration in his first three steps makes him a deadly player in small-ice situations, as he will often create a quick separation from his opponents and benefit from small pockets of space to either release the puck right under the crossbar, or find an open teammate with a better chance of putting it in.

He can also get around even the most physically imposing defensemen using an array of quick-touch skills, and is comfortable using the boards to his advantage, as he showed in Game 6 against the Vegas Golden Knights:

Caufield has built up some chemistry with the Canadiens' top center Nick Suzuki, and the two will likely remain unseparated for the 2021-2022 campaign. Top-line and first power-play unit responsibilities are to be expected for the rookie winger, which makes him very likely to contend for the Calder Trophy. He will probably lead his rookie crop in goals scored this season, but doesn't hold as much value in multi-cat fantasy leagues as he won't throw his weight around at all, nor will he accumulate as much in the plus-minus category if he remains more of a power-play threat.

Moritz Seider, RD, Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings shocked everyone when they took Seider from a lesser-known German program with their sixth-overall pick in 2019, as the most generous rankings had him in the mid-teens and players such as the aforementioned Trevor Zegras (9th) and Cole Caufield (15th) were still up for grabs. He turned out to be an outstanding pick-up, as the 6-foot-4, 200-pound right-handed blueliner showed more and more of an offensive touch to his game in the months following the 2019 NHL Draft, adding to an already-solid defensive game.

He first earned 22 points in 49 AHL games in 2019-2020 following his draft year, and then went to the SHL last season and earned 28 points in 41 games, in one of the most defensive leagues in the world. He was also Germany's most reliable defenseman at the men's World Championship, while outscoring current and former NHLers such as Tobias Rieder, Korbinian Holzer and Dominik Kahun with his five points in 10 games.

He was initially ranked lower in the 2019 NHL Draft due to the obscurity surrounding the DEL, Germany's top level of hockey, and questions on how efficiently his skills within that league would translate to higher levels of hockey, but he has shown so far that German hockey should not be underestimated. He only scored six points in 29 DEL games in his draft year, yet followed it up with close to half a point per game in the AHL with Grand Rapids the next season.

Seider's poise, his fluid skating, his heavy shot, and especially his pro-level defensive positioning and physical presence, all point towards a lengthy career as a top NHL blueliner. Seeing him regularly in the SHL, it is outstanding to watch a 20-year-old dominate the men's level like he does; he identifies and exploits opponents' weak spots very easily when making decisions with and without the puck, and he can throw down full-grown men with a well-timed shoulder check, all while playing against the best hockey players in Sweden.

The likelihood of Seider reaching the NHL this season with the Red Wings is quite high, with the team holding few defensemen in the main roster who could outplay him at the moment. Their top-four is up for grabs, and Seider could very well showcase his high-end talent as soon as 2021-22. If your dynasty or fantasy draft values defensemen, especially ones who hit, jump on Seider wherever he's available.

Anton Lundell, C, Florida Panthers

Lundell makes this list following a 2020-2021 season that can unequivocally be called a success. After falling to 12th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft due to subpar skating and perceived shortcomings on the offensive side, Lundell showed the scouting world why it is unwise to bet against smarts. His production rate in the very low-scoring Finnish Liiga reached near-unprecedented heights, as his 0.962 points per game (25 in 26) are eighth all-time for players his age within that league, trailing Sebastian Aho (1.000) by a thin margin. He was also HIFK's best defensive forward on an almost nightly basis, making high-IQ reads constantly on and off the puck.

Most of his points stem from his ability to read the play three or four steps ahead and make the right adjustments to stay above the puck; he would create multiple turnovers a game and then make a shrewd pass to an open teammate, or he would simply rip it with his ever-improving shooting abilities. When he was drafted, his 10 goals in 44 games did indicate that there was some ability there, but he scored 16 goals in 26 games this past season. He got more comfortable with his offensive tools, and utilizing them more led to their improvement as he learned to beat goalies in more various ways.

He also led his team in scoring at two different international tournaments, with seven points in 10 games at the men's World Championship, and 10 points in seven games at the World Juniors as Finland's captain. He finished tied for third-overall in scoring at the latter tournament, behind only Dylan Cozens (16) and Trevor Zegras (18).

Lundell's brain is what makes him a stronger Calder candidate than other very talented forwards who missed the cut. The types of goals he scores, as well as the way he thinks the game, should carry very well onto NHL ice very soon. His skating has also come a long way since his draft year, and should only improve once he gets to work with NHL training staff. Multi-cat leagues should value Lundell as a top-5 prospect in the league.

Spencer Knight, G, Florida Panthers

The second Panthers prospect on this shortlist, Knight took over for a struggling Sergei Bobrovsky after ending a successful NCAA season (21 GP, 2.18 GAA, .932 SV%) by inking his entry-level contract. He made the most of his chance with the team, earning four starts in the season for a .919 save percentage, followed by a two-game playoff performance (2.07 GAA, .933 SV%) that solidified his position as one of the best goaltender prospects in hockey.

The addition of Knight to this shortlist comes with a big asterisk; dislodging a $10.5 million goalie is not something that a rookie netminder often manages to do, mainly due to the perception by coaches and managers that the money spent on the former is lost if they don't play him. However, if Bobrovsky continues with the same stats earned in 2020-2021 (2.91 GAA, .906 SV%), there will be no denying that Knight is a better goaltender, and I believe the Panthers staff will be wise enough to recognize that.

He covers his net with confidence and calmness, sliding left to right in controlled but strong movements. He can get into desperation mode and sprawl out with an impressive wingspan, and he manages his rebounds efficiently. He plays outside of his net with ease due to his good awareness and communication with his teammates, but can be a bit aggressive when coming out of his crease to challenge shooters. Knight is a truly impressive goaltender who could very well steal the starter role in Florida and run away with it.

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Follow me on Twitter @HadiK_Scouting for all of your fantasy prospect needs!

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