It's Christmas in (checks month) August today! Get your Fantasy Guide at the Dobber Sports shop. If you've preordered it, you should now be able to download it by going to Downloads on the Dobber home page. Go ahead, order it and download it, and come back and read the Ramblings later. I'll wait here. If not, you can still read the Ramblings and maybe pick up a few tips.

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Dobber's 16th Annual #FantasyHockey Guide and Draft List

Updated Throughout the Offseason

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— Dobber (@DobberHockey) August 14, 2021

I know I've spent plenty of time diving in and checking out the projections of players that are on my keeper team and that I'm interested in otherwise. Let's just say I'm going to be referring to the PDF and Excel spreadsheet a lot before the start of the season. 

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It wasn't Elias Pettersson or Quinn Hughes, but the Canucks had a signing to announce on Saturday. Jason Dickinson, who was acquired from the Stars just before the Seattle expansion draft, signed a three-year contract with an AAV of $2.65 million. Dickinson won't likely be on many fantasy teams, but he is an effective two-way center who will likely be on the Canucks' third line.

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Dallas' signing of Braden Holtby was a curious one, particularly since it happened so quickly after the Canucks bought him out.

Fantasy Take: Backup Goalie Signings

At the time, his acquisition signaled the following possibilities:

1. Ben Bishop still might not be ready to play
2. Jake Oettinger may start the season in the AHL
3. Anton Khudobin might be on the trade block

Mike Heika of the Dallas Stars' website was taking questions this morning. GoaliePost inquired about this four-man logjam.  

I don't think that's their plan. I think they made decision to try a combination of Holtby/Khudobin feeling each veteran could push the other. I think they want to start that way and know that Oettinger is a great safety net. They will have to be open to change if needed. https://t.co/etdC6toTVv

— Mike Heika (@MikeHeika) August 14, 2021

Based on Heika's answer, it seems as though 1 and 2 are probably truer. Obviously this is not good news for Oettinger owners, who no doubt look at a nearly 30-game sample of a 2.36 GAA and .911 SV% and believe that he is really ready.

Among 47 goalies who played at least 20 games, this is how Oettinger ranked in the following categories:

41.4 QS% (29 GP, 12 QS) – 39^th (Holtby ranked dead last with a 33.3 QS%)

13.8 RBS% – 23^rd

0.09 GSAA/60  – 22^nd

Oettinger has a strong goals-against average, but that is likely aided by the strong Dallas defense in front of him. If you consider the above goalie metrics, he is probably a league-average goalie at this point. He is probably NHL-ready at this point, but perhaps the Stars are reverting to their original long-term plan here. He is still only 22 (will be 23 during the season), and it's possible that the Stars organization didn't expect him to play in 2020-21.

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The August edition of the Top 100 Roto Rankings will be available later today. Want to get a head start on your fantasy drafts? Feel free to review and leave feedback (any further changes you suggest won't be published until September, though).

As part of my review of the rankings, here are a few players that I recently revalued.

Joe Pavelski

Lots of Dallas Stars content in the Ramblings today. Pavelski was one of fantasy's top comeback players of the 2020-21 season. He finished just outside the top 10 in goals (25) and just outside the top 20 in points (51) at a near point-per-game pace. Of those 25 goals, 13 were on the power play, which was a PPG total that was only surpassed by Leon Draisaitl. His 21 power-play points were within the top 15, while his plus-22 also helped a lot of fantasy teams. The success he had in the 2020-21 season was a carryover from the 2019-20 playoffs, where he scored 13 goals in 27 games during Dallas' run to the Stanley Cup Final.

It's easy to assume that because he's 37 years of age, Pavelski will experience an age-related decline. However, that's not the only cause for concern. Pavelski had both a 9.9 5-on-5 SH% and a 1042 PDO, which are slightly higher than expected. His 18.0 SH% overall also seems quite high, although he's no stranger to high shooting percentages. Do the math and you'll see that he scored 25 goals on just 139 shots. He doesn't necessarily need to have a high shot volume, because he has a higher percentage of goals from tip-ins (12%) and backhands (16%) than most other goal scorers.   

Those who believe Pavelski is due for a regression will also point out his first season with the Stars, where he slumped to just 14 goals and 31 points in 67 games. That might have been the time he needed to adjust to his new team, as he was able to find his stride by the playoffs. The following season, he was able to find success with what was the Stars' top line (Pavelski – Roope Hintz – Jason Robertson) because of injuries. He won't score 35 goals, which is what he was on pace for last season, but 25 over a full season seems doable.

Seth Jones

I had removed Jones from the top 100 just before the trade to Chicago. For a 26-year-old defenseman, his scoring numbers had been trending in the wrong direction.

2017-18: 0.73 PTS/GP

2018-19: 0.61 PTS/GP

2019-20: 0.54 PTS/GP

2020-21: 0.50 PTS/GP

Fantasy Take: Seth Jones, Adam Boqvist Traded in Blockbuster Deal

Now that he has been acquired by a higher-scoring team with a more effective power play, I have to rethink that decision. If you follow the money that the Blackhawks paid to Jones after acquiring him, he will be the guy. And since franchise icon Duncan Keith was moved out prior to Jones moving in, there will be no doubt who will run the first-unit power play. Jones was a 25+ minute defenseman over his last three seasons in Columbus, which I don't think will change in Chicago now that they have what they view as a true #1 defenseman.

Prorated over a full 82-game season, Jones would have averaged about 12 power-play points over each of his last two seasons. That's a number that stands to improve in Chicago, where Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat should each easily reach over 25+ power-play points themselves. That should drive a reversal on the scoring decline, perhaps even up to 50 points.

Jones is also valuable in multicategory leagues because of decent contributions in shots, hits, and blocked shots (depending on the league). He should be able to accumulate these stats based on minutes.

Overall, Jones should be universally owned in 12-team leagues as a D2 or a D3. There's enough potential for him to be back in the top 100.  

Max Pacioretty

Here are the top even-strength forward lines by goals scored in 2020-21:

Line Combination	Team	GF
SIDNEY CROSBY – BRYAN RUST – JAKE GUENTZEL	PIT	42
MAX PACIORETTY – MARK STONE – CHANDLER STEPHENSON	VGK	39
GABRIEL LANDESKOG – NATHAN MACKINNON – MIKKO RANTANEN	COL	39
PATRICE BERGERON – BRAD MARCHAND – DAVID PASTRNAK	BOS	35
REILLY SMITH – WILLIAM KARLSSON – JONATHAN MARCHESSAULT	VGK	25

Of course, Pacioretty did much of the goal-scoring, leading the Golden Knights with 24 goals. Since he played 48 games, he would have been on pace for 40 goals. But would he actually have made it to 40 goals? Some advanced stats show some higher-than-normal numbers for him, including a 13.8 SH%, 11.8 5-on-5 SH%, 3.6 PTS/60, and 1031 PDO. I didn't mention his assist total (27), which was comprised of 44.4% secondary assists. Although he and Stone looked at times unstoppable on the ice, there are enough reasons for at least a mild regression.

I won't push down Pacioretty's value too far, as he is very valuable in multicategory leagues. He is a high-volume shooter who finished fourth in the league with 12.1 SOG/60 (min 20 GP). As well, he has scored at least 20 goals in seven of his last eight seasons, and he shouldn't have trouble reaching that mark again. That means the Pacioretty/Stone combination (should it stay together) should remain one of the top-producing units in the league.

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding