Wild West: Western Roster Changes – Part Two

Grant Campbell

2021-08-16

I spent quite a few hours this weekend, reading Dobber's Hockey Fantasy Guide for 2021-22 and as usual, found it super enlightening. Part of what I enjoy the most is seeing what Dobber and the other writers have to say about players and teams and how it measures up to what I think. Differences happen but the information is the key and of that there is plenty.

Here is part two of our look at additions and subtractions:

Dallas Stars

Addition:

Luke Glendening – C – The 32-year old Glendening was signed as an unrestricted free agent for two years at $1.5 million AAV. Players like Glendening never show up well with analytics, partially because of their OZ starts (he hasn't exceeded 36% since 2013-14) and their defensive role. He is one of the best face-off men in the NHL, can play physically and is a very good penalty killer. His career-high in goals is 12 and points 23, so he won't provide much in the way of offense.

Ryan Suter – D – Suter was bought out by Minnesota and signed as an unrestricted free agent by Dallas for four years at $3.65 million AAV. He is 36-years old so it is difficult to imagine this contract not being a burden by year three or four. If Suter can mentor Miro Heiskanen and improve his play in any way then that might be worth the price alone.

Jani Hakanpaa – D – The big Finn was signed as an unrestricted free agent for three years at $1.5 million AAV. He has 230 hits in 62 NHL games in his career and the Stars will look for him to continue his physical play while playing 16-18 minutes per game on the bottom pairing.

Braden Holtby – G – He was bought out of the last year of his contract by Vancouver and signed by Dallas for one year at $2 million. This was a bit of a peculiar signing as Jake Oettinger played 29 games last year with a 91.1 save percentage. Holtby has been well below average the past two seasons and there is not much to suggest him reversing that trend at 31 years of age.

Michael Raffl – F – He was signed as an unrestricted free agent for one year at $1.1 million. The Stars added Raffl to bolster the bottom six as he is capable of sliding up to the third line at times, but his offense is limited. He is capable of 10 goals and 20 points while providing a solid defensive game.

Subtractions:

Jason Dickinson – C – The Stars feared that they would lose Dickinson in the expansion draft so they traded him to Vancouver for a 3rd round pick in 2021. He has emerged as a fairly good shutdown center with limited offensive capabilities. Dallas will miss him but the addition of Glendening should be an even exchange for the next two seasons.

Jamie Oleksiak – D – Seattle took Oleksiak in the expansion draft as he provided tremendous size at 6'7" and 255 lbs and played top-four minutes last season averaging 20:29 of ice time. The Stars are hoping the addition of Hakanpaa alleviates the departure of Oleksiak.

Andrew Cogliano – F – Cogliano was signed as an unrestricted free agent by San Jose for one year at $1 million. He was on a very expensive three-year contract before that at $3.25 million AAV and only produced 14 goals and 42 points over three seasons of 200 regular-season games. Raffl was signed instead.

Mark Pysyk – D – Pysyk signed as an unrestricted free agent with Buffalo for one year at $900k. He averaged 11:43 of ice time last season in the 36 games he dressed for Dallas as a 6th/7th defenseman.

The Stars have upgraded a little on defense with the addition of Suter and Hakanpaa over Oleksiak and Pysyk while Glendening and Raffl for Dickinson and Cogliano is perhaps a wash for next season. The addition of Holtby might be their only downgrade. If Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov are healthy, they will be the two biggest additions to the roster next season.

Edmonton Oilers

Additions:

Zach Hyman – F – Hyman was signed as an unrestricted free agent to a seven-year deal at $5.5 million AAV. He's 29-years old and his career-high in goals is 21 and points is 41 but he is coming off his most productive season at 0.77 pts/game in his 43 games last year. Short-term this signing makes the Oilers much better if Hyman can stay healthy and put up 20 goals and 40 points for the next three or four seasons. It is the last three or four years of this contract when Hyman is 33 to 36 years old that are the problem.

Warren Foegele – F – The Oilers gave up Ethan Bear to trade for Foegele and then signed him to three years at $2.75 million AAV. He is a very good add for the Oilers and should improve their 3rd line and he could slide up the lineup if needed as well. He is 25-years old and has a career-high of 13 goals and 30 points, which he should be able to duplicate if not improve on this year or next.

Derek Ryan – F – At 34 years of age, the Oilers signed Ryan as an unrestricted free agent to two years at $1.25 million AAV. His production dipped last season from about 0.45 pts/game to 0.3 when his ice time went from around 14 minutes per game to 11:54 last season. He isn't likely to see 3rd line minutes in Edmonton so expect closer to 0.3 than 0.4 this season. He will kill penalties and he is very good in the face-off circle.

Duncan Keith – D – Even though his salary is only $2.1 million this season and $1.5 million next year his salary cap is $5.538 million for both seasons. Edmonton traded Caleb Jones and a likely 3rd round draft pick in 2022, which seems pretty steep to provide Chicago cap relief for a 38-year-old Keith. While Keith can still kill penalties and play on the power play if needed, his offense has declined to 0.28 pts/game from about 0.45 the prior three years combined. His possession numbers at even-strength are not very good any longer, but he has won three Stanley cups, so there is that.

Cody Ceci – D – Ceci was signed as an unrestricted free agent for four years at $3.25 million AAV. At 27 years of age, Ceci has played 548 games in the NHL and has had stints as a top-four defenceman in Ottawa and for a bit of his time in Toronto, but seemed to settle in with Pittsburgh last season averaging 18:31 per game. He certainly has his critics, but he does hit, block shots, kill penalties and chip in with 20-25 points each year.

Subtractions:

Alex Chiasson – F – Three seasons ago, Chiasson had 22 goals for the Oilers, with eight of those coming on the power play. In the 110 games he played over the past two years he had 20 goals and 11 of those were on the power play. His production was declining at even strength but his power-play time never was below 52.8 percent with Edmonton. He remains an unrestricted free agent.

Dominik Kahun – F – Kahun had a disappointing one-year experiment with Edmonton, struggling to nine goals and 15 points in 48 games. His lack of production was in spite of the fact that he played with either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid 68.1 percent of the time at even strength. He remains an unrestricted free agent.

James Neal – F – The Oilers bought out Neal this off-season and will now carry a salary cap of $1.916 million for the next four years. After 19 goals and 27 points in his first 45 games as an Oiler, he only managed five goals and 14 points in his next 39 games and was a regular healthy scratch last year. He remains an unrestricted free agent.

Adam Larsson – D – He was picked in the expansion draft by Seattle. Larsson is 28-years old and was perhaps unfairly maligned in Edmonton for most of his five seasons there as the player acquired in return for Taylor Hall. He will usually be amongst the league leaders in blocked shots and hits while averaging around 20 minutes per game. The Oilers will miss him and I'm not sure Ceci makes up the difference.

Tyler Ennis – F – Ennis was the 13th forward on the Oilers last season only playing 30 games while only posting three goals and nine points in 12:08 of ice time per night. If Ennis can get a role similar to what he had in Ottawa two years ago or Toronto three years ago he might stay in the NHL. He remains an unrestricted free agent.

Ethan Bear – D – Bear was traded to Carolina for Foegele. After a breakout year in 2019-20 where he had 21 points in 71 games and averaged 21:58 of ice time per night, he took a bit of a step back last season. He lost four minutes of playing time per night but did maintain pretty good possession numbers. His role should be filled by Evan Bouchard and made his time in Edmonton expendable once they re-signed Tyson Barrie.

Caleb Jones – D – He has joined his brother Seth in Chicago as he was part of the Keith trade. Jones had played 76 games over the past two seasons with four goals and 13 points while only averaging just under 14 minutes per night.

Gaetan Haas – F – In 92 games over his two seasons in Edmonton, Haas had seven goals and 13 points. At 29-years of age, that is not going to get you an extension. He remains an unrestricted free agent.

It is difficult not to improve your roster when the players you are moving out are struggling to find full-time employment with other teams as five of the eight departed Oilers are currently doing. The addition of Keith and Ceci will be hard-pressed to make up for the departures of Larsson, Bear and Jones, but Evan Bouchard should come into play at some point this year.

At forward, the Oilers have improved significantly with Hyman, Foegele and Ryan being added and essentially replacing replacement-level players.

Los Angeles Kings

Additions:

Phillip Danault – F – Danault proved during the Montreal playoff run that he is a Selke calibre player even with only five goals and 24 points in 53 games. The Kings have added an elite shutdown center, who should allow Anze Kopitar to get more OZ starts this season as well as give Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte valuable time to develop in the AHL. Danault's career-high is 13 goals and 53 points so expect about 10 goals and 40-45 points. Unfortunately, he did not come cheap as an unrestricted free agent as the Kings signed him for six years at $5.5 million AAV.

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Viktor Arvidsson – F – The addition of Arvidsson is a big upgrade for the Kings in the top six as it gives the team a legitimate 25-30 goal scorer. Los Angeles dealt a 2nd round pick in 2021 (Scott Morrow) and a 3rd round pick in 2022 to Nashville for Arvidsson. He has three years remaining on his $4.25 million AAV contract.

Alexander Edler – D – The Kings signed the 35-year old Edler to a one-year deal at $3.5 million. Never fast, to begin with, Edler has lost not just one step but perhaps two in the past few years. He is still one of the league’s best penalty killers and shot blockers, but his offense has completely dried up as evidenced by his zero goals and eight points in 52 games last season. It will be interesting to see how the Kings deploy Edler next season as his 31.7 percent OZ starts should increase, but his 20:54 of ice time might decrease.

Subtractions:

Kurtis MacDermid – D – MacDermid was curiously taken by Seattle in the expansion draft and was then traded to Colorado for a 4th round pick in 2023. The Kings lose a 6'5" 233 lb defender who has averaged 12:37 of ice time in 118 NHL games. They will miss his physical presence but not his team-worst puck possession numbers.

The Kings have improved with Danault, Arvidsson and Edler being added to the lineup. The timing is a little curious as the team is not close to playoff contention this year or next. Kopitar's contract is up at the end of 2024, so it appears that they are operating on a window with that in mind or they are giving their strong prospect pool time to properly develop.

Minnesota Wild

Additions:

Frederick Gaudreau – F – The Wild must have liked what they saw in the 19 games Gaudreau played with Pittsburgh last year where had 10 points. They signed him as an unrestricted free agent to a two-year deal at $1.2 million AAV. It is not a contract you would expect for a 28-year-old who has played 103 NHL games with five goals and 18 points who doesn't add a physical element to his game. What might have caught their eye last season is that Gaudreau is fairly good in the face-off circle and managed to carry play with only 26.9 percent of his starts in the OZ. It's a bit of a gamble for Minnesota as players like Gaudreau (over his career) should be available for $750k per year.

Alex Goligoski – D – Minnesota added the 36-year-old Goligoski as an unrestricted free agent and signed him to a one-year deal at $5 million. They probably spent a little more cash to not give more term and that might be the wiser route. He was paired with Jakob Chychrun for much of last season and they both faced the other team’s better players and held their own. He will be surrounded by some pretty good defensemen in Minnesota and should see an upswing in plus/minus. Over the last seven seasons, his points per game have been very consistent between 0.36 and 0.46 so no reason to think he can't sustain that range next year.

Dmitry Kulikov – D – He was signed as an unrestricted free agent for two years at $2.25 million AAV. He is an interesting player as he was drafted 14th overall in 2009 by Florida as an offensive defenseman after 62 points in 57 games with Drummondville of the QMJHL in 2008-09. He made the team in Florida the next season at 18-years old and played 68 games with 16 points. After peaking with 28 points in 58 games (0.48 pts/game) in 2011-12 he has never produced more than 21 points or 0.29 pts/game. He changed his game on the fly and has become a good puck possession defender who matches against the top players on the other team.

Jon Merrill – D – He was signed as an unrestricted free agent for one year at $850k. He was added as a 6th or 7th defenseman who will be in and out of the lineup and might average 16-18 minutes per night.

Subtractions:

Nick Bonino – F – He was signed by San Jose as an unrestricted free agent for two years at $2.05 million AAV. He didn't have his best year last season where he was consistently buried at even strength. Usually, I would defend a player that had OZ starts at 35.9 percent but Bonino has consistently had similar starts over the past four years with much better possession numbers. The Wild will miss his 15 goals and 30-35 points along with his abilities in the face-off circle. They are hoping that Gaudreau is a better, cheaper fit.

Ryan Suter – D – Suter was bought out by Minnesota and they will now have a cap hit of $833k for each of the next eight seasons. The 36-year-old Suter was with the Wild for nine seasons and was their team captain, so the hole he leaves will be large. He was quickly signed as an unrestricted free agent by Dallas for four years at $3.65 million AAV. Other than his offense declining from 0.7 to 0.34 pts/game, his puck possession was still fairly good so he should have a few years of productive hockey left in Dallas.

Zach Parise – F – The 37-year-old was bought out as well and will have the same cap hit as Suter over each of the next eight years. He remains an unrestricted free agent. He might have one more 20-goal season in him.

Carson Soucy – D – Soucy was taken by Seattle in the expansion draft. Soucy was a 6th or 7th defenseman in Minnesota and is now 27-years old. He has 108 NHL games with eight goals and 31 points but the red flag for me is his 15:27 of average ice time and unimpressive possession numbers. I'm not sure the Wild are worse without him and his departure alleviates two years remaining at $2.75 million AAV.

Marcus Johansson – F – Johansson was never a great fit in his one year with Minnesota at $4 million in salary. He battled injuries and only played 36 games with six goals and 14 points while being buried at even strength. He signed with Seattle as an unrestricted free agent for one year at $1.5 million.

Bill Guerin removed a big chunk of leadership by buying out Suter and Parise and we won't know the effect of that until next season. On paper, the team has come close to replacing the subtractions and will hope some of the youth in Marco Rossi, Matthew Boldy and Calen Addison step up for roster spots this year. If so, they might be ahead of last year, if Kirill Kaprizov is back. What a blow to the roster that would be, if Kaprizov stays in the KHL.

Nashville Predators

Additions:

Cody Glass – F – Glass was acquired in the deal that sent Ryan Ellis to Philadelphia and brought Phillippe Myers and Nolan Patrick who was dealt to Vegas for Glass. The 6th overall pick in 2017 is now 22 years of age and has battled injuries in each of the past two seasons. He has played 66 games in the NHL with nine goals and 22 points while averaging 13:56 of ice time. Vegas gave him quite a bit of power-play time for such a young player as he averaged 48.6 percent. In Nashville, Glass has a little more of an opening to play center in the top six than in Vegas as Ryan Johansen and Mikael Granlund are ahead of him right now, but both have struggled with offense over the past two seasons. He should get an opportunity to succeed in Nashville, but it is always a concern when a team trades a high draft pick after 66 games.

David Rittich – G – Rittich was signed as an unrestricted free agent to a one-year deal worth $1.25 million. His game has been below average for the past two seasons, resulting in Jacob Markstrom being signed before last season and Rittich being dealt to Toronto for a 3rd round pick in 2022 from Calgary at the trade deadline last year. He could see 25-35 starts in Nashville this year backing up Juuse Saros.

Philippe Myers – D – As part of the Ryan Ellis return, Myers should see 16-20 minutes next season depending on whether he slots in ahead or behind Dante Fabbro and Alexandre Carrier on the depth list in Nashville. Myers is a big-bodied defender who has decent puck possession numbers and can kill penalties and block shots. His career points per game after 115 NHL games is 0.25, so 20-25 points are perhaps his ceiling.

Subtractions:

Calle Jarnkrok – F – He was selected by Seattle in the expansion draft. In seven years in the NHL with Nashville, his career-high was 16 goals and 35 points. In his 508 games, he averaged 0.42 pts/game but his last two seasons were 0.53 and 0.57. On a low-scoring team like Nashville, his production will be missed.

Viktor Arvidsson – F – The Predators got what they could from Los Angeles with a 2nd and 3rd round pick for Arvidsson, but ended up losing Jarnkrok and Arvidsson for two draft picks. It is not going to be easy replacing both of these players’ goal scoring from within.

Erik Haula – F – He was signed as an unrestricted free agent by Boston for two years at $2.375 million AAV. Haula had nine goals and 21 points in 51 games last season with less than impressive possession numbers. At his salary, he should be replaceable.

Ryan Ellis – D – Ellis was traded to Philadelphia in a bit of a surprise move bringing back Myers and Glass. Ellis has played his whole career in Nashville and other than injury wasn't slowing down. Staying healthy has been an issue for him over the past two seasons as he has played 84 games combined, but his production was impressive with 13 goals and 56 points in those games. He plays top two minutes, kills penalties and carries the play. The Predators will miss him a lot.

Pekka Rinne – G – Retired. Rinne played his whole career in Nashville and in 681 regular-season games he had 368 wins, 91.7 save percentage and a cumulative GSAA of 93.7.

On paper, I'm not sure how the Predators are even in playoff contention with the players they have subtracted with only Glass, Myers and Rittich on the other side of the column. The biggest holes will be Arvidsson and Ellis and I don't think they can even come close to filling them next year.

We will divide this article into three parts, so next week we will look at San Jose, St. Louis, Vancouver, Vegas and Winnipeg.

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions please message me or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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