The 2021-22 DobberHockey Fantasy Guide dropped on Saturday, and I've had the chance to skim/read through it once now, and I am on my second run-through with a finer toothed comb now. There's too much information to digest in just one sitting or one read-through, so I typically try to get through it a few times before draft season.

With the guide comes the start of trying to organize my thoughts for the season, and sorting out which players I want to target, which I want to fade, and what market inefficiencies there may be that I can try to exploit (I'll get to those next week). Some of these are general thoughts, others are relative to what Dobber has in the guide, but overall it's just how I start to organize how I can optimize my offseason/preseason buying and selling.

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Some players I am buying:

Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jack Roslovic – The pair on Blue Jackets have flown under the radar for a while, and Dobber is reasonable with his projections in the guide. However, I think they have another gear above what they are projected for, and out from under John Tortorella, their ice time should start to see a bit more of an offensive slant. The power play should also prominently feature both players, which would be a boon to their overall numbers, as they only had a combined 16 power play points last season, and the unit only clicked at a 15% success rate. I'm taking the over on both for the 69.5-point threshold.

Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas – This pair may not be linemates, but they are both favourites of mine, and have point-per-game upside, with the very realistic potential to hit at least 70-points this coming season. For Thomas that would more than double his pace from last year's injury plagued season, but it would only be a 40% increase on his previous campaign, which is right in line with the usual breakout season amount. Oh, and guess what, he hits his breakout threshold 30 games into the season, and should have some even more skilled linemates this year. Meanwhile for Buchnevich, it would actually just be a continuation of his pace from last season. I dove into it a bit more last week, but he's someone that you can't be caught sleeping on at the draft table.  

Andre Burakovsky – Not one of the biggest names in Colorado, but perhaps the top option in the second tier, Burakovsky has paced for about 65 points in each of the last two seasons. At six-foot-three and 200 pounds, he's a little shy of being considered with the big players for the 400-game breakout threashold, however, he did only pass that 400-game threshold in the second quarter of last season, and in the second half he caught fire, and was playing at a 77-point pace. His shooting percentage has been elevated over the last two years, with both marks coming in over 18%. That is very high, but he has always converted at a solid clip, putting up a career 13% mark with the Capitals, and being put in a better position to succeed with Colorado. Even if the shooting percentage does drop, it should be countered by the fact that he was actually unlucky overall on the ice last season. His goal numbers may dip a touch, but overall, I expect the point totals to jump.

Marco Rossi – Take a moment to think of a fantasy relevant centre playing in Minnesota over the last number of years. There are a couple, but it gets scarce after Eric Staal, Joel Eriksson Ek, and maybe Mikko Koivu. Marco Rossi not only has the potential to be better than all of them, but he has the potential to do it right away. The 19-year-old battled with Covid symptoms last year, and that was all that kept him from pushing for the top line gig then, because he was one of the most NHL ready players to be drafted in 2020. With another year of growth, and a full offseason of training under his belt, expect his skill to be on full display in training camp. He is my early pick for the Calder Trophy.

Neal Pionk – With the additions of Nate Schmidt and Brendan Dillon to the Jets’ blueline, there is finally some depth there for the first time in years. This means that the top players won’t have to be over-extended to cover other roles, and they can focus on what they do best. For Pionk, that is his offence, meaning if he is ever going to put up 60+ points, this should be the year. Pionk's shot rate and powerplay ice time were down last season, but if both can rebound with some more opportune deployment, then he should easily take a step forward from the 50-point pace he posted the last two seasons.

Ryan Ellis – Ellis has a pattern of up and down seasons, and is due for a high this year. The move the Philadelphia may not change his slotting on the power play pecking order, however, the Flyers’ offence is much stronger than what the Predators have. He is an excellent puck-mover, and having an improved set of forwards ahead of him means he can only build on his usual 45-point floor. In the 50-to 55-point range wouldn’t be a surprise. 

Juuse Saros, but only at a certain point in the season. Buy the Fantasy Guide to read my thoughts on him there and other goalies to watch. He also was just signed to a great $5 million AAV contract for the next four years, walking the Predators right to the Yaroslav Askarov window, and Saros to a big payday at the peak goalie age of 30.

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Some players I am fading:

Viktor Arvidsson – The former Pred was a great fit on the top line in Nashville for a few years, however, of late he has been inefficient and ineffective. He sprained both MCLs from a Robert Bortuzzo cross-check over a year ago, and hasn't been the same player since. Even earlier that season though, he was becoming more of a perimeter shooter whose previously high shooting percentages were catching up to him. It is possible he finds his game in a new system in Los Angeles, but I won't be one of the people betting on it. I think he is down on the third line (at best) by mid-season.

Alec Martinez – The 31-year-old defenceman re-upped with Vegas for three more years, eating up most of the rest of his prime playing years. After the career-best season he had, followed up with a stellar post-season, Martinez has nowhere to go but down. He only puts up 1.5 shots per game, but that was enough this past year with a shooting percentage double his career average, on top of some very high on-ice luck metrics. Coming off of a broken foot this offseason, he will need to really string that luck out to be worth his ADP this fall.

Tyson Barrie – He put up the most points by a defenceman last year, and he's in the same position running a power play that also features the best player on the planet, plus another top-five offensive talent. Then why am I down on him? Well, for starters, the underlying numbers are not exactly favourable. Two thirds of his assists were secondary points, and those can be variable and unrepeatable from year to year. On top of that, there is also the internal competition to consider. Evan Bouchard is going to be pushing even harder for a roster spot this year, and after giving up a second-round pick plus Caleb Jones to bring in Duncan Keith, maybe he gets a spin with the top unit as well at some point.

Thatcher Demko – In a vacuum, Demko would be an excellent player to have as the second goalie on your fantasy team, and a reasonable option for your number-one guy. However, there are a lot of outside factors that bring down his value. Vancouver's defence is one of the worst in the league at suppressing quality shots against, and despite a few new names, that is unlikely to change. The team also brought in goalie Jaroslav Halak to be the backup behind Demko, and that is a big upgrade on Braden Holtby. With Halak available to vulture more starts, and the team again doing their best imitation of an old sieve, Demko isn't someone that presents a lot of upside this season. His saving grace though is that his floor is relatively sturdy, having only put up a really bad start in eight percent of his appearances last season.

Cam Talbot – Outside of a 36-year-old Alex Goligoski, the Minnesota Wild haven't made any real notable additions on top of last year's team, and they also bought out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter just to get their contracts off the books. On top of that, the team is moving from the weaker West division, to the much stronger Central division. On top of that, Kaapo Kahkonen looks primed to take on a larger role this season, and was the stronger goalie over stretches where he played regularly. None of this bodes well for Talbot, who, at 34-years of age, saw his numbers drop drastically in the final quarter of the 2020-21 season. His quality start rate in those 11 games was a measly 27%, which is not going to cut it for a team with playoff, and maybe even Stanley Cup hopes. By American Thanksgiving I think we see Kahkonen as the clear go-to goalie for the Wild.

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The annual offseason fantasy grades have begun with the Anaheim Ducks. They should be trickling out over the next few weeks, so keep checking back.

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Feel free to either drop a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.

Stay safe!