Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades 2021: Boston Bruins
Michael Clifford
2021-08-20
For the last 18 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.
The 19th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer…er, winter. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.
Enjoy!
Gone – David Krejci, Jaroslav Halak, Nick Ritchie, Kevan Miller, Ondrej Kase, Dan Vladar, Sean Kuraly, Jeremy Lauzon
Incoming – Derek Forbort, Nick Foligno, Linus Ullmark, Tomas Nosek, Erik Haula, Troy Grosenick
Impact of Changes – The two big changes are to the second line and to the goaltending situation. For much of the last few years, Jake DeBrusk and David Krejci were staples of the second line. DeBrusk has fallen out of favour and Krejci left for Czech Republic, which opens a lot of roles, particularly in combination with Nick Ritchie leaving. There are likely two roles on the second line and one on the top PP unit, depending on what they do with Taylor Hall. Erik Haula and Tomas Nosek are ostensibly in the running for the second-line centre position, though Charlie Coyle likely starts there.
This isn't a team that is going to sit back and let things work themselves out, either. Patrice Bergeron has one year left on his deal and is 36 years old while David Pastrnak has two years left on his deal. The window for this team is closing and whatever works is what will get used. That means we can expect some movement with the last forward on the top PP unit.
There is also turnover on the blue line. It was a weakness last year and they haven't really upgraded it beyond adding Forbort. This is again going to be the Charlie McAvoy show, though what happens with the power play is uncertain. Matt Grzelcyk had the PP1 role but lost it to McAvoy late in the season. Mike Reilly is also capable of running a power play, in case they don't want to run McAvoy 24-25 minutes a night with regularity. McAvoy should get that role back, but there are other options available.
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Be sure to grab your copy of the 2021 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Guide!
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Ready for Full Time – With Jaroslav Halak moving on and Tuukka Rask injured for a good chunk of 2021-22 as it is, Jeremy Swayman was always going to play a big role on the team. That they signed Linus Ullmark to such a hefty deal kind of speaks to their situation: Halak is gone and Rask's availability is up in the air. Ullmark is likely to be the 1A in this situation, but even the 1A here probably doesn't get more than 55 starts. That should leave Swayman as a valuable fantasy goalie on a team that should still be very good.
He got in three-quarters of the games last year, but this should be a full year in the lineup for Trent Frederic. There was a chance Boston would lose him in the expansion draft, but the were able to hold on to him. He was able to put up about 1.5 hits per game last season, playing just 11 minutes a night. His offensive upside is in question, but with 13-14 minutes a night, he could bring enough physicality to be valuable in banger leagues.
Fantasy Outlook – There isn't much reason to think the stars aren't going to keep shining. The top line of Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak scored over 4.5 goals per 60 minutes last year a 5-on-5, which is super elite. Their play-driving numbers were elite as well, so the trio showed no signs of slowing down. The problems could be injuries as Bergeron and Marchand keep aging, but if they're on the ice, they should still be one of the most dominant lines in hockey.
The key for Hall's fantasy value being the fourth forward on the power play. He wasn't that last year – David Krejci and Nick Ritchie got the PP1 time after Hall's arrival. Even with that PP time at the end of the year and a great season, Krejci only paced out to about 70 points. That isn't a terrible season, obviously, but that is probably Hall's ceiling without consistent top power-play time, whereas he can be a point-per-game player with it. The same goes, at lower point totals, for Charlie Coyle and Jake DeBrusk. Whichever guy wins the PP1 lottery probably gets a 10-12 PPP boost. It is a lot.
Charlie McAvoy has seen his shots/game steadily climb in his career, and he should get close to 2.0 shots a night this season. With consistent top PP time, he's a threat for 20 PPPs, and thus a threat 50 points. In fact, if we knew he was going to be PP1 all year, 50 points would be a reasonable floor. Combine that with triple-digit hits and blocks, plus those shots, and the makings of a top-10 fantasy defenceman are here. The lynchpin is those PP minutes, and that goes for Grzelcyk and Reilly, too. Reilly hits enough to bring value even without the PP minutes, but Grzelcyk does not. In fact, if we know McAvoy is PP1 in September, then Reilly is likely the better draft pick than Grzelcyk. They are similar playmakers but Reilly brings more across the board.
As mentioned, there is likely going to be a split in net, one favouring Linus Ullmark. That should give Jeremy Swayman value early in the year, at least. Do not forget that Tuukka Rask could be back after Christmas, at which point Swayman could be sent to the AHL. Anyone drafting Swayman should keep in mind that they may only have a backup for three months before having to cut him. That is a gamble to take on draft day.
Fantasy Grade: A- (last year was B)
Offseason Fantasy Grades: