Frozen Tool Forensics: Fourth Year Breakout

Chris Kane


We are back at it this week, and going to dive into the fun topic of fourth year breakouts. The mythical fourth year is often pegged as a perfect breakout opportunity, with reason. We have a ton of examples of players who broke out in their fourth year. It might be that it takes most young players a few years to adjust and grow into the NHL. It might be that GMs and coaches take a few years to put these players into positions of prominence, or it could just be some preconceived bias we have as fantasy managers.

Any way you slice it, there will be some players who break out in their fourth year, and we have some reports that can help us take a look at candidates. Specifically, there are two reports on the Frozen Tools Reports page, 4th Yr Breakout, and Next Yr Breakout. We will be looking at both today: One to check on who were 2020's breakouts, and who might be up next.

Process description this week: I ran the reports for the 2020 season, exported them, added a PTS/G column and ranked by that metric. I also added a cutoff of 15 games to eliminate any player who just played a few games. For this week we are going to focus on forwards so any defensemen were also removed.

Oh, and all point pace references are projecting out over a full 82-game season.

2020 Fourth Year Breakouts

ALEX DEBRINCATL23CHI4285523224561.0818155
MARTIN NECASC22CAR4125531427410.7711114
JESPER BRATTL23N.J423146723300.658101
ANDREW MANGIAPANEL25CGY4178561814320.57591
JORDAN GREENWAYL24MIN421056626320.57180
ALEX IAFALLOL27L.A4282551317300.558118