Ramblings: Lundqvist Retires, Observations on Eight More Teams: CBJ, DAL, DET, EDM, FLA, LA, MIN, MTL (Aug 21)

Ian Gooding

2021-08-21

King Henrik is calling it a career. Henrik Lundqvist finishes off with a 459-310-96 record, a 2.43 GAA, .918 SV% and 64 SO in 15 seasons, all with the Rangers. Remember that he signed with the Capitals during the past offseason but could not play due to a heart condition, so it's a shame if this medical issue has cost him his career.

Lundqvist came in at #2 in our Top 10 Goalies of Decade article. Pekka Rinne, who also retired earlier this offseason, was the only goalie that finished ahead of him. I can remember adding Lundqvist off waivers during his rookie year, which was the season right after the lockout. At that time, I had no idea he would have the kind of career that he did.

If you've rostered him through the years, you'll probably know that he consistently earned wins, as he had nine 30+ win seasons. Speaking of which, he was the fastest goalie to record 400 wins in NHL history. Dunk on wins all you want, but he earned a ton of them because he played a ton of games: three seasons of 70+ games, and five more seasons of 60+ games. He was a workhorse of a goalie.

The Rangers will be retiring Lundqvist's #30 sometime this season. A few years from now, you might also see him in a Hockey Hall of Fame induction.

The Flames signed a pair of defensemen on Friday. Nikita Zadorov agreed to a one-year extension worth $3.75 million, while Juuso Valimaki agreed to a two-year extension worth $1.55 million per season.  I have an Offseason Fantasy Hockey Grades report for Calgary coming within the next several days, where I mention that both of these d-men could pick up increased minutes as a result of Mark Giordano leaving. Since Valimaki is on my keeper team, I'm hoping his increase is at least partially in the form of power-play minutes. I would guess second-unit minutes at best, though.

Evgeny Svechnikov is reportedly receiving a professional tryout from Winnipeg, with a possible two-way deal. The onetime Detroit prospect did not receive a qualifying offer from the Red Wings, making him a free agent. It's worth mentioning that he played on the same junior team as Pierre-Luc Dubois.

Have a listen to the latest 32 Beats Keeping Karlsson podcast, where Ben Burnett interviews Lightning beat writer Joe Smith. Since the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions are a team with numerous top-drawer fantasy options, this is one you won't want to miss.

Continuing my tour around the league, here are some notes on eight more teams. For more, see yesterday's Ramblings, as well as last Friday and Saturday.

Columbus

Patrik Laine is on my Do Not Draft (high) list. Yahoo Fantasy just opened for business (more on that in a future Ramblings), and they have him ranked at #151. Remember when we were talking about him possibly being as valuable as Auston Matthews? His value has sunk like a stone, and I'm not sure it bounces back in a huge way in Columbus. Nothing against Jack Roslovic, who is a solid player in his own right, but he's currently the first-line center on that team. That might be good for Roslovic's value, though.

Dallas

I noticed that Alexander Radulov was one of the top-searched players on Frozen Tools this week. As Mike mentioned a couple days ago, Radulov played just 11 games last season, and Tyler Seguin played just two. The Stars never really recovered from their injuries and their COVID shutdown at the start of the season.

In his injury-shortened season, Radulov showed some promise, scoring 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in just 11 games. Yet during the two previous seasons with a larger sample size, his numbers fluctuated wildly.

2019-20: 60 GP, 34 PTS, 0.57 PTS/GP

2018-19: 70 GP, 72 PTS, 1.03 PTS/GP

Those numbers don't make it easy for projections, so maybe just take the average of the two and assume he falls somewhere in the middle. And since he's missed at least nine games in each of those seasons, subtract an injury discount as well.  

Detroit

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Dylan Larkin's production has fallen for two consecutive seasons (from 0.96 PTS/GP to 0.75 PTS/GP to 0.52 PTS/GP in 2020-21). Yet the advanced stats numbers for Larkin suggest a potential bounceback. In 2020-21, Larkin had a 6.7 SH%, a 5.0 5-on-5 SH%, and 1.5 PTS/60, all below his career averages. The lowest number was his 21.4 secondary assist percentage, which isn't surprising since he had just 14 assists in 44 games. Having regular linemate Tyler Bertuzzi back for a full season might help. Larkin had seven points in the nine games that Bertuzzi suited up for.

Edmonton

Positive Mike Smith fact: Only six goalies had a better GSAA than Smith (13.73) last season. I'm willing to bet that he won't be expensive to draft this year either. I'm not saying that he'll match last season's results, but you probably won't be drafting in a spot where you'll have high expectations either.

Florida

Sam Bennett is another top Frozen Tools search this week. His keeper owners and those considering drafting him are no doubt trying to figure out where to project him. The status of Bennett is why we write Fantasy Takes on this website. In certain instances, a player's fantasy value can shift dramatically one way or the other with a trade. Two instances that pop into my head from the distant past are Cam Neely being traded to Boston, or John LeClair being traded to Philadelphia. There are certainly more, although that doesn't mean a player's value will automatically change with a trade.

As for what I think that projection will be, it will most likely be somewhere in the middle of his production in Calgary and Florida. I know, that's a wide gap. Florida is obviously a much better situation for him than Calgary was, with linemates like Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Duclair. Yet given his track record in Calgary, it's also possible that he caught lightning in a bottle. Armed with a new four-year contract that pays just over $4 million, Bennett should be given every opportunity to replicate his success.

Los Angeles

Anze Kopitar led the Kings with 50 points, which was 17 points higher than the next-highest scorer and 19 points higher than the next-highest forward. Over each of the past six seasons, Kopitar has averaged over 20 minutes per game. Only Connor McDavid has averaged more minutes per game over that span.

As I will mention in the team preview, the acquisition of Phillip Danault could result in Kopitar playing fewer minutes, particularly in the defensive zone. Over each of the past four seasons, Kopitar's OZ Start% has been below 50%. What about McDavid, you ask? Over the past five seasons, his OZ Start% has been close to or above 55%, including 62.9% in 2020-21. Danault's OZ Start% has consistently been between 40-50% over the past five seasons.

Minnesota

Kevin Fiala was another top Frozen Tools search, perhaps because of the recent news that he signed a one-year deal worth $5.1 million. This will be a key season for him, as he will go into the offseason as an arbitration-eligible RFA. Why a one-year deal? Well, it might be about getting that other guy (Kirill Kaprizov) locked up first, then using that amount to determine what to pay Fiala long-term. However, Joel Eriksson Ek was signed to an eight-year deal, so it may be about not knowing for sure what Fiala is worth.

He has been consistently in the 0.8-0.84 range the past two seasons, including back-to-back 20-goal seasons. But break it down within each season, and the numbers are a little more up-and-down. He's clearly better in the second half than in the first half.

2020-21: 1st half 11 PTS in 22 GP, 2nd half 29 PTS in 28 GP

2019-20: 1st half 25 PTS in 38 GP, 2nd half 29 PTS in 26 GP

Montreal

This has been the case for over a month, and it will be mentioned in the upcoming The Journey, but Cole Caufield is the new #1 on the Top 200 Fantasy Prospect Forwards. I'll leave it here and let Hadi describe why in his article.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 TOR vs WSH
Mar 28 - 19:03 MTL vs PHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 PIT vs CBJ
Mar 28 - 19:03 FLA vs NYI
Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
Mar 28 - 20:03 STL vs CGY
Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
Mar 28 - 22:03 SEA vs ANA
Mar 28 - 22:03 VAN vs DAL
Mar 28 - 22:03 ARI vs NSH

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TAGE THOMPSON BUF
JJ PETERKA BUF
ANTHONY DUCLAIR T.B
JORDAN GREENWAY BUF
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL

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  Players Team
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI
JOONAS KORPISALO OTT
KAREL VEJMELKA ARI
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency S.J Players
20.8 FABIAN ZETTERLUND KLIM KOSTIN MIKAEL GRANLUND
12.1 NICO STURM THOMAS BORDELEAU JUSTIN BAILEY
8.5 FILIP ZADINA RYAN CARPENTER

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