Ramblings: Quick Observations on Eight Teams: ANA, ARI, BOS, BUF, CGY, CAR, CHI, COL (Aug 20)
Ian Gooding
2021-08-20
Get your Fantasy Guide if you haven't already! If you want to win your fantasy league this season, it is a must-own. Better yet, combine it with the Fantasy Hockey Geek, which is available this week! The Geek takes the Dobber projections, then allows you to customize values for your league's scoring system.
In fact, if you buy the Fantasy Hockey Geek Draft Kit, you can get the Fantasy Guide for just $2.99. Use the coupon code geekdkit. Or if you've bought the Fantasy Guide already but not the Geek Draft Kit, there's a coupon code on page 9 of the Fantasy Guide.
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An annual offseason tradition, Dobber's Offseason Fantasy Grades have already begun. You can check out Anaheim (written by Alex) and Arizona (written by me). More on those teams as well below.
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The Red Wings are buying out the final year of Frans Nielsen's contract, which was on the final year of a six-year, $31.5 million contract. Nielsen had already spent part of last season on the taxi squad, so his role with the Wings had already been diminishing. At age 37, Nielsen's career might be over unless he's willing to settle for a one-year contract at league minimum or even a PTO.
This contract was one of several horrible long-term free agent contracts signed during the summer of 2016, which included the likes of Loui Eriksson, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo, Andrew Ladd, David Backes, and Troy Brouwer. In other words, a cautionary tale about the dangers of being the highest bidder on July 1. But that year was particularly notorious for the size in both cap hit and term of the bad contracts.
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Leaving off from last week, I'm running through each team in the league with one thought or topic I'd like to expand on a little after writing about that team (or simply reading about them). Maybe in the end I could call this the 32 Thoughts blog. Oh wait, that name is already taken. Anyway, here is something about eight more teams. For a couple of teams, this also includes recent news.
Anaheim
I'll be perfectly honest: I am having a tough time finding much interesting about the Ducks this season. Trevor Zegras? Sure, although I don't think he's going to blow the doors off this season because the pieces around him aren't there, at least not yet. And we know about how important having the right linemates is. The Ducks had the league's lowest-scoring offense (2.21 GF/GP) in 2020-21, and they're not making any massive upgrades for the coming season. I might be tempted to let someone else reach for Zegras and Jamie Drysdale in single-season leagues. Keeper leagues, different story, of course.
Arizona
Shayne Gostisbehere could have a new lease on life in Arizona. Unless the Coyotes sign another defenseman, Ghost could slot in as a top-4 defenseman. That's how bare the cupboard is there. If you think that's a crazy idea, then keep in mind that he produced at a nearly half-point-per-game pace in 2020-21 (20 points in 41 games). The problem is that he was healthy scratched a lot in Philly – a problem that is less likely to happen in Arizona. If he's also gotten past his knee issue, then he could be a bounceback player. Don't use a high pick on him, but he might be worth a late-round flier or an early-season waiver-wire pickup.
Disclaimer: His plus/minus could be a disaster not only because he will play for the Coyotes, but also because he's had two minus-20 seasons in his career. Or just because of his style of play.
On a side note, could this be the Coyotes' final season in Arizona? The City of Glendale has decided not to renew the operating lease with the Coyotes for Gila River Arena. It's basically either find another arena in the Phoenix area, or find another arena somewhere else (like Quebec City? Houston?) Before you assume this is the final nail in the coffin for the Coyotes' long-suffering existence, remember that Gary Bettman has done anything and everything through the years to keep this team in Arizona. But this is certainly a blow to Arizona Coyotes fans.
Boston
Not that the Linus Ullmark signing is a bad one, given that they couldn't leave the goaltending to the largely unproven Jeremy Swayman to start the season. But I was curious as to why the Bruins targeted Ullmark. Then I looked up his splits:
Career (all opponents): 2.78 GAA, .912 SV%
Career (vs. Boston): 2.53 GAA, .921 SV%
I've seen this happen many times in sports. A player plays extremely well against a particular team, perhaps even shutting them down. Guess which team targets that player when he becomes available?
Fantasy Take: Ullmark Signs for Big in Boston
Buffalo
I don't know, man. At least when (if?) Jack Eichel is traded, you can download an up-to-date copy of the Fantasy Guide with the new Sabres projections. If it happens before the season, of course.
Oh, and in news on the Sabres, first overall pick Owen Power is returning to Michigan for his sophomore season. It's probably better for everyone involved. Don't destroy the confidence of your latest prized pick with what could be a very long season.
Calgary
Sean Monahan is 26. His scoring pace has decreased over two consecutive seasons, from 1.05 PTS/GP to 0.69 PTS/GP to 0.56 PTS/GP in 2020-21.
Matthew Tkachuk is 23. His scoring pace has also decreased over two consecutive seasons, from 0.96 PTS/GP to 0.88 PTS/GP to 0.77 PTS/GP in 2020-21.
Johnny Gaudreau just missed out on decreased production over two consecutive seasons, as his scoring pace slightly increased from 0.83 PTS/GP in 2019-20 to 0.86 in 2020-21.
Carolina
I've mentioned that with his situation with both the NHL and the Sharks under review, Evander Kane will be on my Do Not Draft list. But what about Tony DeAngelo? Given what happened last season and the fact that the Hurricanes have hedged their risk with only a one-year commitment for not far above the league minimum, TDA will be on a short leash. In other words, if he's a bad seed again, the Canes have little to lose by walking away. By signing him, they're hoping he can replicate the scoring that Dougie Hamilton provided, which would be his upside. There are few defensemen that can score at that level.
Keep in mind that there's also the defensive woes, which could worst-case scenario make him a healthy scratch for a game or two if Rod Brind'Amour doesn't believe he's putting in the necessary commitment. Poor defense won't get him cut by itself, but it could also contribute to how much Brind'Amour trusts him with icetime beyond the power play.
As an easily replaceable mid- to late-round pick, DeAngelo should be okay to roll the dice on. For that matter, Kane might be too. I have a feeling Kane will be drafted well before that, which is why I am saying do not draft him. If TDA is being drafted within the top 100, though, count me out. Let someone else take that risk. But if he falls to around pick 200 or maybe even 150… hmmm.
Chicago
Someone decided to pre-emptively drop Dylan Strome in my keeper league, which had more to do with paying top dollar for his value in auction two years ago than anything. Strome is only 24, yet is production has fallen for two consecutive seasons (0.73 PTS/GP to 0.66 PTS/GP to 0.43 PTS/GP in 2020-21). Does that mean he will fade into oblivion? There are a few reasons that he might not.
For starters, Strome has played just over 200 games, and as a bigger forward (6-3, 200 lbs.) he may need more development time. Also consider that brother Ryan Strome didn't start to break out until he was 26, which was two years ago. As well, Strome's advanced stats (6.6 5-on-5 SH%, 1.6 PTS/60, 966 PDO) suggest potential for a modest bounceback. Strome could stand to improve in assists in particular, as only two of his eight assists in 2020-21 were secondary assists. He isn't necessarily someone I will target in this league, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of improvement.
Colorado
With all the excitement surrounding Darcy Kuemper's fantasy value after being traded to the Avalanche, as well as the departed Philipp Grubauer's outstanding season, it's easy to forget about Pavel Francouz. The Czech goalie missed all of last season after surgery for a lower-body injury, so he should at least provide the Avs with improved backup goaltending. In 2019-20 he actually had posted better numbers (2.41 GAA, .923 SV%) than Grubauer (2.63 GAA, .916 SV%), but then ran into some problems in the playoffs that were probably injury-related. It would have been interesting to see how his presence would have affected Grubauer's season.
Grubauer played 70 percent of the goaltending minutes for the Avalanche in 2020-21, and would have played more had he not been on COVID protocol. Colorado used three different backup goalies during the season, with Jonas Johansson the only reliable option of the three. In an 82-game season, they will demand more out of their backup goalie.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding