Fantasy Hockey Poll: Risk or Reward Players

Rick Roos

2021-08-25

In fantasy there are steady eddies, namely players who perform at or near the same level year after year. They might not be a good bet to rise to new heights; however they usually have a predictable scoring floor and tend to avoid injury. On the other end of the spectrum are the risk/reward or feast/famine players, who could just as easily disappoint as exceed expectations and/or who usually play great when healthy but who can be a perpetual injury risk.

For this month's poll, I'm going to list 20 risk/reward, feast/famine players and it'll be up to you to vote on the five you think are most likely to perform best for 2021-22 versus expectations. Not necessarily the five best overall – the five best versus expectations. Sure, that'll involve guesswork and hunches, but I – and I'm sure readers of this column – would be curious which of these players are consensus choices. How should you determine who gets your votes? For risk/reward Band-Aid Boys, they would need to stay healthy plus also perform at a top level, while for feast/famine players they would need to connect the dots and have a stellar season, as opposed to disappointing. Essentially, you want to vote for the five who'll have the best results for 2021-22 despite the dangers involved in having them on your fantasy team(s).

With that out of the way, here are the 20 voting choices, in alphabetical order. A link to where you can cast your votes will appear at the end of the column.

Viktor Arvidsson – It seems a lot longer ago than 2018-19 that Arvidsson had the third best goals per game rate among all NHLers, plus a scoring rate of 68 points. Since then he's cumulatively scored at lower than a point per every other game. With LA clearly coveting him, Arvidsson has a chance for a fresh start, and, at 28, might still be young enough to bounce back big.

Sergei Bobrovsky – You'll get no argument from me about Bobrovsky being among the biggest fantasy disappointments over the past two seasons. Still, if we look back he had two subpar seasons before returning to form the last time in 2016-17. Of course, he was 28 then and his wallet wasn't nearly as fat as it is now having signed a huge UFA deal in 2019. That being said, you can never say never when it comes to a two-time Vezina winner.

Rasmus Dahlin – With Sam Reinhart gone and Jack Eichel all but assured to be leaving town, the young phenom Dahlin has a problem in that pretty much all the up-front skill of the team will be elsewhere. It wasn't like he shined in 2020-21 when they were here either. Still, after the excellence we saw from him as a teen, we can't rule out that Dahlin steps up and carries team scoring from the blueline, ala what Roman Josi did in Nashville in 2019-20.

Tony DeAngelo – While of course there's the risk of DeAngelo imploding off the ice, even if we go back to his 2019-20 campaign he seemingly unsustainably overachieved…..by a lot. Yet on paper he's the PP1 QB for a potent Carolina team, and perhaps spending a year on the sidelines not only got his head screwed on straight but also will allow him to shine on the ice.

Matt Dumba – Looking at just the last 19 games of 2017-18 and his injury-shortened 2018-19, he tallied 37 points in 51 contests, a 60 point pace. Yes, since then he's looked unspectacular, with only eight more total points in 120 contests; but let's not forget, he's still just 27 years old. Moreover, not only is Ryan Suter now out of the picture, but with all due respect to Jared Spurgeon, there's really no one else who fits the bill as an offensive d-man, plus the Wild took great pains not to lose Dumba in the expansion draft, signifying big plans for him in 2021-22.

Ryan Ellis – When he was on Nashville it was easy to predict how Ellis would fare, as he'd settled into a pattern of a superb season followed by a just okay season. With him on Philly now, it's not clear how he'll do. He probably won't have to log tough minutes, as those likely will go to the likes of Rasmus Ristolainen and Ivan Provorov; but he might not get much PP1 time either, as the one-dimensional Keith Yandle was seemingly signed for that purpose. Still, if Yandle falters, Ellis could be the beneficiary, and Ellis still might be able to pile on points in the normal course.

Johnny Gaudreau – After posting 99 points in 2018-19, Gaudreau has failed to achieve a scoring rate above even 70 points in each of the last two seasons. At 27 he should be in the prime of his career; yet he's floundering, whether due to apathy or a need for a change in scenery. Will he snap out of it and bounce all the way back, or might things get even worse?

Taylor Hall – From 130 points in 109 games in 2017-18 through 2018-19 to just a 51-point pace in 2020-21 despite 14 in 16 games upon arriving in Boston. It's that performance in Boston, plus a likely spot on PP1, that gives poolies hope of a rebound. Just one problem – who'll be his center, with David Krejci having gone overseas?

Carter Hart – If Bobrovsky's 2020-21 was a let down, I'm not sure what words describe Hart's campaign. The silver lining is he allowed only 12 goals in five starts in April, with a SV% of .913+ in three of the contests. Philly also showed confidence by signing Martin Jones as back-up, who's hard to envision as any kind of a threat to be the starter or even a 1B. Plus, Hart was inked to a three-year deal and the revamped Flyer defense mentioned above could also help him shine.

Patrik Laine – While still only 23 and thought of as among the most skilled younger players in all of the NHL, the reality is Laine's cumulative point total over the past three seasons is less than the likes of Max Domi, Brock Nelson, Timo Meier, and T.J. Oshie to name just a few. And while the Blue Jackets did get playmaker Jakub Voracek to help address this, Voracek is 32 years old and, perhaps more importantly, he's not a center, with that still being a huge void on the team. With Laine inked to a one-year deal he has added motivation to succeed; however, perhaps this will be a case of a player whose star burned bright early but went out just as fast.

Dylan Larkin – After posting 73 points in just 76 games at age 21, Larkin has seen his scoring pace drop by 18 points in each of the past two seasons. Yes, Tyler Bertuzzi will be back with the team; however, Anthony Mantha is now gone, and it's not clear what kind of chemistry Larkin will have with Jakub Vrana. Detroit is likely a team on the rise; but will it be Larkin who's a key contributor to that, or instead will he be just along for the ride?

Kris Letang – Don't look now, and at the risk of jinxing things, but Letang has missed fewer than ten collective games over the past two seasons. He's not had a run of health like that in literally a decade. The issue is, not only is there the looming injury threat, but also concerns that at age 34 he's going to slow in the normal course.

Evgeni Malkin – Another season, another ill-timed injury for Malkin. This time it's different, as he wasn't great when not hurt plus he'll be starting 2021-22 on the shelf. Yes, he had points in 15 of his last 19 games for 2020-21; however, in none of those contests did he tally more than two points. In fact, he had zero 3+ point efforts all season, perhaps showing that he's lost some of his explosiveness, whether due to age or the cumulative effects of his many injuries.

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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – After a stretch where his scoring improved for three straight seasons, culminating in a 77 point scoring pace for 2019-20, RNH struggled in 2020-21, even as he was on the cusp of being a UFA and had favorable deployment. He inked a team-friendly deal and is likely locked into PP1; but even if he still has a spot alongside Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, as we saw last season that might not be enough to boost his scoring output.

Carey Price – If only the regular season was the playoffs, as yet again when games mattered most we saw how amazing Price can be. But he's 34, and four seasons removed from his last respectable regular season, so it might be a bit much to hope for the Price of old to reappear.

Morgan Rielly – You know what's almost worse in fantasy hockey than an underperforming player? One who's unselfish. After Rielly scored at a 57 then 72 point pace in successive seasons, he morphed into a team first player, making it so despite him being the unquestioned top d-man in Toronto he's not stuffing the stat sheet as much anymore. Then again, he could decide to focus more on offense again. You never know, and that's what's so frustrating.

Steven Stamkos – The return of Nikita Kucherov gave Stamkos owners a rude awakening when the two were separated at ES during the playoffs. That came on the heels of Stamkos producing at a 73-point rate after back to back 95+ point scoring rates. His SOG volume was also the lowest since his rookie season. At 31 does Stamkos have a third act, or are we seeing his scoring wane?

Jonathan Toews – Before missing all of 2020-21, Toews was coming off his two best seasons in recent years and had looked rejuvenated. And with the failure of Dylan Strome to gel with Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane, a spot is there for the taking. The question is whether the effects of whatever kept him out last season will linger enough for him to disappoint.

Vincent Trocheck – After being thought by many to have peaked early, Trocheck surged last season to tie his prior best scoring rate of 75 points. Yet with his low OZ% and lining up against the best of other teams, it might be that 2020-21 might be too difficult to repeat, as seemed to be the case when I did a deep dive on him in Goldipucks.

MacKenzie Weegar – In the come from nowhere story of 2020-21, Weegar, who'd never once scored even a point per every other game, shined with a scoring pace of 55. But as I pointed out in last week's Forum Buzz column, signs point to it being an aberration. Still, maybe he can find a way to defy the odds and stay as productive.

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Lots of great choices, and there are probably still others. Your task is to pick the five (no more, no less) of these 20 who will have the best fantasy seasons for 2021-22 versus expectations, avoiding the risk/famine and providing the reward/feast. To cast your votes, click here.

Scheduling Note, and Questions for Mailbag column

The upcoming edition of the mailbag is already full. But you should feel free to send questions for the next one, although note that it will publish on September 29th, so if you have keeper questions you shouldn't send them unless you can wait until them for an answer. To get your question(s) to me, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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