Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Colorado Avalanche

Ian Gooding

2021-08-26

For the last 18 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 19th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

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Gone Brandon Saad, Joonas Donskoi, Carl Soderberg, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Matt Calvert, Liam O'Brien, Ryan Graves, Conor Timmins, Patrik Nemeth, Dan Renouf, Philipp Grubauer, Adam Werner

Incoming Mikhail Maltsev, Dylan Sikura, Darren Helm, Stefan Matteau, Ryan Murray, Kurtis MacDermid, Darcy Kuemper

Impact of changes – The Avalanche were able to re-sign captain Gabriel Landeskog minutes before he was to hit free agency. Unfortunately, Grubauer slipped away to the expansion Seattle Kraken in a deal that would have been difficult for the Avalanche to match. Joe Sakic didn't waste much time in finding a replacement, acquiring Kuemper from Arizona for Timmins and a first-round pick. Kuemper has battled lower-body injuries for the past two seasons, never reaching the 30-game mark in either season. Meanwhile, Grubauer was a Vezina Trophy nominee, so there is a bit of in this goalie switch, even with Kuemper posting some very good numbers while with the Coyotes.

There are some other noteworthy departures, although not as significant as in goal. Saad brought a 30-goal pace to the second line, Donskoi provided scoring depth, and Graves brought top-4 minutes on the defense. The Avalanche are also losing Timmins, who has the potential to be a top-4 d-man. The Avalanche will hope that Murray will pick up some of those minutes on defense, as could Erik Johnson, who missed most of the 2020-21 season.

Ready for Full Time – As a result of the departures, Bowen Byram should also be able to land a full-time role. He missed time with multiple injuries in addition to time on the COVID protocol list, which explains why he played only 19 games (and scored just two points). Since the Avalanche are still fairly deep with defensemen with offensive upside in Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard, Bowen owners may need to be patient. Once he receives his opportunity, Byram could really roll with this offense.

Alex Newhook arrived at the end of the 2020-21 season, playing six regular-season games (no goals, three assists) while suiting up for eight playoff games (one goal, one assist). Prior to that, he was successful in both the NCAA (16 points in 12 games) and the AHL (nine points in eight games). He received a taste of action on the second line with Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky, and with both Saad and Donskoi departed, Newhook might be able to claim a regular spot on that scoring line. He should be in the early Calder Trophy discussion.

Martin Kaut was able to get into five regular-season games, although he did not record a point. He managed to score 16 points in 20 games in his second season for the AHL's Colorado Eagles. Since he does not require waivers, Kaut is the type of player who could be back and forth from the NHL and AHL, although he could also fill in a bottom-6 role for the Avs.

Fantasy Outlook: The Avalanche were the highest-scoring team in 2020-21 (3.52 GF/GP), so there's lots to choose from here. Leading the charge was Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, who both finished in the top 10 in scoring and points per game. There's no reason to think they won't be among the league leaders again. Landeskog will be back to form what is arguably the league's most dangerous line with what might not be quite as much scoring as MacKinnon or Rantanen, but solid peripherals. Kadri and Burakovsky should form an effective second line, as long as Kadri does not receive another suspension. As mentioned above, look for Newhook as a potential rookie sleeper among the scorers.

The offense doesn't end with the forwards. Cale Makar was the only defenseman to reach the point-per-game mark in 2020-21 (minimum 2 GP). If he stays healthy, he is a strong favorite to lead all NHL defensemen in scoring. Being able to expose Johnson in the expansion draft despite his no-movement clause was huge, as it enabled the Avs to retain both Samuel Girard and Devon Toews. Both are mainstays on the Avs' second power-play unit while maintaining very similar point totals to each other last season (Girard 32, Toews 31). With this deep a defense, Byram can be eased into NHL duty.

In net, Kuemper stands to receive a massive uptick in value with the move from Arizona to Colorado, effectively replacing Grubauer as the top goalie. But don't forget about Pavel Francouz, who missed all of last season with a lower-body injury. If Kuemper is still battling his own lower-body injuries, Francouz could be in line for plenty of wins.   

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Fantasy Grade: A (last year was also A)

2021 Offseason Fantasy Grades

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Starting Goalies

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TAGE THOMPSON BUF
JJ PETERKA BUF
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JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL

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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CHI Players
26.7 PHILIPP KURASHEV RYAN DONATO CONNOR BEDARD
19.3 LANDON SLAGGERT JASON DICKINSON JOEY ANDERSON
17.7 TAYLOR RADDYSH TYLER JOHNSON NICK FOLIGNO

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