Ramblings: Values on Conor Garland, Pavel Buchnevich, and Dylan Larkin – August 27

Michael Clifford

2021-08-27

There were a couple very notable signings in the NHL yesterday.

 First, the Hurricanes signed young star Andrei Svechnikov to an eight-year deal worth $7.75M a season. He will be UFA at the end of the deal but this carries him through his entire prime. It is a very smart bet. Coincidentally, I wrote about Svech earlier this week.

Whether he's worth it in cap leagues will be very close. He is now being paid like a top-50 player in the league. To be worth it in fantasy, he needs a commensurate performance, and likely better than top-50 given how important ELC contracts are. So, anyone in cap leagues needs to figure out if they think Svech can be a perennial, say, top-40 fantasy player. In hits leagues, it's close. In non-hits leagues, I'm not so sure.

The Flyers also locked up Sean Couturier for eight years and the same AAV as Svechnikov. This will carry Couturier, who turns 29 in December, through his mid-30s. Like Svech, it'll depend on the league as to whether he's worth that cap hit. He could be worth it in leagues without hits but with faceoffs. He might not be worth it in almost any other format, especially at a position as deep as centre.

*

Today, I want to take the time today to talk about a trio of players that are all going to be drafted outside the top-100 players this year but each of them have top-100 upside. In fact, just going by Yahoo!'s early ADP, all three players may be selected outside the top-150, and that could be a gift for each of these players. Let's dig in.

Conor Garland

This player could see varying values depending on the fantasy league. Fans from certain teams, depending on the league, will just value their favourite team's players higher. We have all been in leagues with Leafs or Habs fans that do this. Just beware of your Canucks fans.

Anyway, Garland was traded to Vancouver in the offseason as part of the OEL package. He has 47 goals in 164 career games, or over 20 goals every 82 games. That may not seem great, but only 11 of those goals have come on the power play and he's averaged under 15 minutes a game in his three seasons. Translate those goals on a per-minute basis and it works out to 1.04 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 since 2018, just behind Brayden Point and just ahead of Mark Stone. At all strengths, his goals rate is just behind Stone, tied with Anders Lee, and just ahead of Brock Boeser. There is a reason he was coveted and extend