The Journey: Rookie Goaltenders to Watch for 2021-2022

Hadi Kalakeche

2021-09-04

Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.

This week, I wanted to take an early look at the most likely standout rookie netminders of the 2021-2022 NHL season. The following names have already proven their immediate value to their respective NHL teams, and are included based on their likelihood to see some playing time this upcoming year. If you own a dynasty league and want immediate results between the pipes, keep a close eye on the prospects listed below.

Each goalie shows a Top 50 Fantasy Prospect Goaltenders ranking for the fall of 2020 followed by the most recent rankings for the summer of 2021.

Jeremy Swayman – Boston Bruins (Fall 2020: 16, Summer 2021: 1)

Swayman's emergence as the league's top netminder on Dobber's Top 50 Fantasy Prospect Goaltenders list comes after a truly impressive season with the Boston Bruins, earning 10 starts and blowing all predictions out of the water with a 1.50 goals-against average and a .945 save percentage. He took over after Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak missed some weeks of action and looked like a seasoned NHL veteran.

His immediate value has skyrocketed now that Halak has signed with the Vancouver Canucks and Rask as well is in need of hip surgery and remains without a contract for 2021-2022. He suddenly finds himself in a fight for the starting role with Linus Ullmark, who signed a four-year deal with the team as an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

Swayman's imposing and aggressive style puts him at an advantage in clean-shot situations, and he shows great athleticism, timing and explosiveness on lateral movements. He can overcommit and find himself scrambling at times, but his desperation instincts make up for his shortcomings on the technical side – at least they have so far. NHL translatability was a big question mark in Swayman's game, but his processing and puck-tracking seem to have adapted well to high-paced NHL hockey. A great prospect to pick up for immediate results.

Spencer Knight – Florida Panthers (Fall 2020: 17, Summer 2021: 2)

Knight is one of the best goaltender prospects of his generation, and he could very well be the next perennial starting netminder for the Florida Panthers. His technically and mentally solid game made him the 13th overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, which was packed to the brim with top-end talent. His game has only improved since, with impressive NCAA performances culminating in a couple of NHL appearances last season.

Knight played four regular-season games and two playoff appearances as a 20-year-old – his game somehow improved in the postseason, earning a .933 save percentage and retaining his calm demeanor despite the highest of stakes. The Panthers ended up losing the series to the eventual cup winners in the Tampa Bay Lightning, but Knight more than made a name for himself in the offseason.

He falls second to Jeremy Swayman in the top-50 for one simple reason: Swayman's fight for the starter role is a battle more easily won. Knight would have to dislodge Sergei Bobrovsky and his $10 million contract in order to be as likely an immediate contributor. Given the tendency by coaches and general managers to play their expensive players regardless of their level of performance, the chances of Knight taking over and playing more games in 2021-2022 than Swayman are slim. If he manages to take the starting role early, however, Knight could be an excellent NHL goaltender as soon as this year, and for many more to come.

Josef Korenar – Arizona Coyotes (Fall 2020: 90, Summer 2021: 3)

Korenar's appearance in the top three mirrors Swayman's, as he does not have much competition for an NHL starting role. As Dobber mentions in his top 50, the only real competitor Korenar has for the Coyotes' #1 spot is Carter Hutton. The 23-year-old's situation could turn for the better now that he has been traded away from the San Jose Sharks and plays on a team that is a good goaltender away from being a thorn in the side of regular playoff teams trying to keep their spot.

Korenar's smaller frame at 6-1 makes him a more adept puck-stopper in the bottom-half of the net. He doesn't absorb pucks efficiently with his body, which results in avoidable rebounds, but his agility and lower-body flexibility allow him to get to difficult pucks. He has games where nothing seems to get past him, and others where he lets in a muffin or two. His stats in 10 games with the Sharks (3.17 GAA, .899 SV%) are difficult to evaluate properly due to how awful the team was defensively last season, but visually Korenar seemed engaged and swift on his skates in the blue paint throughout his stint.

If Korenar can dislodge Hutton as the starter in Arizona, he could put together a great 2021-2022 campaign and be an immediate aid to your keeper league team.

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Dan Vladar – Calgary Flames (Fall 2020: 14,  Summer 2021: 5)

Vladar started off his NHL career with the Bruins last season, playing five games and performing well under-par with an .886 save percentage. He was traded in the offseason to the Calgary Flames for a third-round pick, and the Flames seem keen on putting him behind Jacob Markstrom to start their 2021-2022 season. Vladar will probably play between 20 and 30 games next season, and that number could skyrocket if anything were to happen to Markstrom during the year.

Vladar has a consistent ability to put a second, third and fourth effort on rebounds, although he could benefit from allowing less of them. He can bite hard on dekes, but will usually keep his ground and use strong, controlled pushes to cover the bottom half of the net when facing shots. He deflects them into the corners with ease, and can play the puck decently enough when the situation allows it.

Vladar's challenge will be to eventually take over as the Flames' number one goaltender. He needs some work, and I believe playing as the backup to Markstrom for a couple of years and working with the team's goaltending coaches will greatly benefit his game long term, but he remains one of a few rookie netminders who are all but guaranteed some NHL games this upcoming season.

Filip Gustavsson – Ottawa Senators (Fall 2020: 33,  Summer 2021: 9)

Gustavsson's performances in nine games last season warrant his spot on this list, as the Senators prospect managed a .933 save percentage paired with a 2.17 goals-against average near the end of the Sens' season, dragging the rebuilding team to a winning record (5-1-2) and looking like a veteran between the pipes with his calm and controlled style of play.

He manages his positioning extremely well and has a broad-shouldered frame despite his average size at 6-2, which allows him to keep his arms tighter to his body while still covering the top of the net well. He moves in short, controlled and agile pushes and doesn't drop to the butterfly early, staying square to the shooter with his hands in front of him. When he does fall into the butterfly, he pushes well to either side on cross-ice passes and has good reflexes to get to high shots, especially on the glove side. His tendency to overcommit on his lateral pushes has improved slightly over the years since he was drafted, but it still remains a setback.

Prior to his call-up to the NHL, Gustavsson had earned quite similar stats in the AHL (13 GP, 2.86 GAA, .910 SV%) and in the Swedish second division (19 GP, 2.30 GAA, .919 SV%), but his NHL stint put him on the map as a prospect and allowed him to throw his name in the mix for the Sens' two goaltender positions this upcoming season. This is highlighted further by the team's decision to protect him over Matt Murray in the Seattle expansion draft with their only goalie slot – the team ended up keeping both of them, but have clearly shown which of the two they see as the goalie of their future.

Gustavsson is not guaranteed a spot on the Sens' roster, as the team will have Murray and Anton Forsberg looking to keep their spots on the main roster, but all the rookie netminder needs to do is impress in training camp and the fight with Murray for the starter role begins. He was extended for two years at close to league minimum, but he will be eligible for arbitration at the end of his contract and could put together an interesting start to his career in those two years.

Follow me on Twitter @HadiK_Scouting for all of your fantasy prospect needs!

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