Eastern Edge: Values on Forgotten Players Bertuzzi and Drouin

Brennan Des

2021-09-07

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It’s Bubble Keeper Week! Over the next few days across the website, Dobber's writing staff will be discussing players who aren't undisputed 'keepers' – the less obvious fantasy assets. In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss two players that match such a description – Tyler Bertuzzi and Jonathan Drouin.

Tyler Bertuzzi

A back injury limited the 26-year-old winger to just nine games last season. He had a big impact in that small sample, tallying five goals, two assists and four power-play points. As is often the case when a player misses a large chuck of the season, the 'out of sight, out of mind' effect has kicked in and Bertuzzi's fantasy value is sitting a lot lower than it should ahead of the 2021-2022 campaign. Now, I'm not saying that because Bertuzzi put up seven points in nine games last year (which translates to 64 points in 82 games), he should be treated as a 65-point player this season. Last year's sample was too small for us to use it as the foundation of any arguments surrounding Bertuzzi's fantasy value. Instead, it may be helpful to take on a large-scale approach that places more of an emphasis on his career trajectory.

As I mentioned earlier, Bertuzzi is 26 years old. When a skater reaches that age, we usually have a pretty good idea of their capabilities. However, that's because when most players reach such an age, we've seen them in action for at least four or five full seasons. That isn't the case with Bertuzzi, who only has 208 NHL games under his belt. As such, I think there's more room for Bertuzzi to grow than there would be for your typical 26-year-old forward. His first real season was the 2017-2018 campaign, where he averaged 14 and a half minutes a night and paced for 41 points. He took a big step forward in 2018-2019, pacing for 53 points while skating 16 and a half minutes per game. He enjoyed another increase in ice time during the 2019-2020 season, where he saw over 19 minutes of action a night. His production didn't increase proportionally, but he paced for a respectable 55 points. It's entirely possible that Bertuzzi caps out as a 55-point player, but like I said before, I believe there's still room for him to grow. More importantly, I think Detroit has made some recent improvements that will help Bertuzzi take the next step forward. In swapping Anthony Mantha for Jakub Vrana late last season, the Red Wings gave up a talented power forward for a player with more offensive potential. Vrana's offensive abilities could benefit his teammates, namely Bertuzzi. We've seen Detroit stack its best players on a line before, so it's possible they roll with a trio of Bertuzzi, Vrana and Dylan Larkin at even-strength this year. Bertuzzi has never been a huge producer with the man advantage, but the additions of Vrana and Nick Leddy could improve Detroit's power-play and in turn boost Bertuzzi's overall production.

Bertuzzi remains underrated in fantasy leagues this year because he's just four months removed from offseason back surgery. Initial reports indicate he'll be 100-percent to start the 2021-2022 campaign, but there's always some public apprehension when it comes to injuries. Aside from that, you may be avoiding Bertuzzi if your league tracks plus/minus. The Red Wings aren't expected to be very good this year and they find themselves in a stacked division –

setting up the team's skaters for a myriad of minuses. In my opinion, plus/minus is too random a category and it's not worth placing much stock into it. I personally think Bertuzzi's offensive potential outweighs any concerns related to plus/minus. Bertuzzi has been drafted in just 11-percent of Yahoo Leagues so far and has an ADP of 150 in the rare occasion he is selected. I think that sets up great value for a player who could put up a 60 to 65-point pace this year.

Jonathan Drouin

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Shortly before taking a leave of absence last season, the 26-year-old forward was playing some of his best hockey as a member of the Montreal Canadiens. He posted seven points through 10 games in the 2020 playoff bubble and started the 2021 campaign with 19 points in 28 appearances. Unfortunately, things went downhill from there as he posted just four points in his next 16 outings and ultimately took a break from the team.

Drouin isn't on the radar in most fantasy leagues and that's probably because of the uncertainty surrounding last year's leave of absence. For a while, we didn't really know his status for the 2021-2022 campaign. As a result, some fantasy managers opted to avoid drafting Drouin altogether, rather than wasting time with projections and speculation that would end up being pointless if he didn't play. Even after learning that Drouin would be ready this season, some still have their reservations about him from a fantasy standpoint. Will he miss more time this year? The Canadiens have an abundance of talented wingers, where does Drouin slot in? Based on his stats in Montreal, Drouin doesn't seem like more than a 50-point-player, is our perception of him still inflated because he was a third overall pick – eight years ago? Now those are all fair questions and they represent valid concerns that explain why Drouin's fantasy value is at an all-time low. But when a player's fantasy value reaches an all-time low, that's the best time to buy if you see any potential for them to bounce back.

During his time in Montreal, Drouin has shown elite offensive ability through flashes of brilliance, but he hasn't been able to sustain a high level of play over a long period of time. I hope the leave of absence gave him a chance to reset and perhaps find some consistency going forward, but there's no tangible reason to suggest things will be any different this year. In the past, we've often seen players become more consistent once they start playing steady minutes in a more prominent and well-defined role. That doesn't really apply to Drouin for this upcoming season, so it's tough to say he'll magically become more consistent.

With that being said, there are also a few reasons to be optimistic about Drouin from a fantasy perspective. For one, Drouin has always shown promise with the man advantage, but he didn't really have the most competent supporting cast. The development of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield should give Montreal one of the most talented power-play units the team has had in recent memory. Drouin's overall output would certainly benefit from a boost in power-play production. Next, there's been some chatter that Montreal's many talented wingers will push Drouin outside of the top-six, but I don't think that'll be the case. In my opinion, Drouin has the best playmaking ability among Montreal's wingers and that unique skillset will keep him in the top-six. Some may argue that Cole Caufield is already a better playmaker than Drouin, but I'd say that recency bias may skew our perception. Regardless, among Montreal's forwards, only Brendan Gallagher makes more money than Drouin next season. With a cap hit of $5.5 million for the next two years, the Canadiens have to place Drouin in a position to succeed so they can get some return on investment. His fantasy value is incredibly low right now – as is the cost to acquire him. I think there's a decent chance he bounces back this year, so he's definitely on my watch list.

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