Frozen Tool Forensics: Bubble Keeper Week and Shooting Percentages

Chris Kane

2021-09-10

It is time to continue Bubble Week in Frozen Tool Forensics. As I hope everyone has picked up on by now, Bubble Week is about trying to dig a little deeper on our 'bubble' players. The ones managers may be considering keeping or letting go. To help in our analysis we are going to look at our Bubble List's shooting percentage.

This is going to be a partially process-based article, but as is our want, I am going to start with a bit of additional process to break down how we got the data we are about to review.

We start with our ever-popular Big Board Report (via Frozen Tools) as it gives us most of the basic info we need to make some analysis. First step is to export it and then rearrange to keep the columns of interest. On top of that we need our target players. As other columnists have indicated we have a general list of players to avoid in these Bubble Week columns, so by cross referencing those with the Big Board list we can eliminate the high-flyers and are just left with the bubble players. Just for reference here are some of the ones at the top of the heap in terms of points per game.

NamePosTeamGPGAPTSPTS/GP
RYAN O’REILLYCSTL562430540.96
JOE PAVELSKICDAL562526510.91
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYKLPHI561726430.77
T.J. OSHIERWSH532221430.81
PHIL KESSELRARI562023430.77

One fundamental question for deciding on a bubble player is: how repeatable was that player's performance? If you have a guy who should be better next year, and a guy who should be worse, that information might tip the scales in who you decide to keep. So for the purposes of this article I decided to use shooting percentage as one measure of sustainability.

Let's clarify something right up front though: shooting percentage by itself is a pretty blunt tool. It can be regressed and might generally be a good tool for looking at future goals, but not so much for assists