Ramblings: Gustafsson Signs PTO with Islanders; Ranking Kaprizov, Nurse, Ullmark (Sept 17)

Ian Gooding

2021-09-17

The NHL has announced a Heritage Classic outdoor game in Hamilton on March 13 between Buffalo and Toronto. The geography makes sense given the cross-border rivalry. But for fans outside of this area, are the Sabres really going to be a draw? The game will of course also feature the Leafs, which means that the TV numbers will be there anyway. Even if it's not as much of a draw for folks like me in western Canada who are already used to nonstop Leafs coverage from the major sports networks.

Speaking of the Buds, the most recent Offseason Fantasy Grades features Auston Matthews and company, written by Alex MacLean. Later today, or maybe by the time you're reading this, I'll have the Offseason Fantasy Grades for the Vancouver Canucks.

NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly announced that the salary cap is expected to increase by $1 million next season. That will probably have a greater impact on NHL teams than those in salary cap leagues, but it's a start to help teams that maxed themselves out before the pandemic.

Daly also mentioned that the vaccination rate for NHL players is within the 98-99 percent range. Daly also estimated that fewer than 15 players could be unvaccinated by the start of the season. Not getting paid for missing games due to a positive test seems to serve as an effective incentive.

Daly also said that the league's investigation of the gambling allegations of Evander Kane will conclude next week with a report. In the meantime, Kane appeared in an interview with ESPN's Linda Cohn regarding the allegations.

DobberHockey's 16th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is out now, fully updated and ready for download. Pick it up here!

According to Chris Johnston, Erik Gustafsson will be coming to the Islanders camp on a professional tryout. After what might have been an outlier 60-point season in 2018-19, Gustafsson has struggled to under a half point per game with four different teams over the past two seasons. He has also been in and out of the lineup as a healthy scratch. Great offensive potential, but not a strong defender.

The Islanders' top two power-play options (Ryan Pulock, Noah Dobson) are both right-shot defensemen, and left-shot Nick Leddy was traded earlier this offseason, so left-shot Gustafsson might be a good fit for the power play if he can make a strong impression at training camp. If he makes the team, don't expect Barry Trotz to give him major shutdown minutes – just power-play time and little else.   

The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for September. Feel free to use them if you have a single-season draft coming up. I like to get input from those who use the rankings, so by all means leave feedback. 

I did not move Kirill Kaprizov down the rankings, even though Michael Russo of the Athletic said on Thursday that Kaprizov won't be ready for the start of camp. I was aware of the uncertain status of his contract, but it sounds like there are a number of other logistical issues that will prevent him from being ready even if he signs today. So maybe I'll now include the caveat that you can feel free to move him down a few spots. His Yahoo ADP is 30, while his current Roto Ranking is 35.

I'll mention that the unsigned status of Brady Tkachuk, Elias Pettersson, and Quinn Hughes also did not affect how I ranked them, though I will definitely revisit that if they are somehow not in the lineup to start the season. Even though reports have suggested that no progress is being made, not being at training camp while the rest of the team is can definitely serve as an incentive to get a deal done. It's possible that once one of these players is signed, then the others will fall like dominoes.

Thank you to those who left comments on my Twitter earlier this week about the Roto Rankings. Over the coming days, I'll discuss a few of those players here below and why they fit in where they do.

Darnell Nurse

Nurse is a player I like a lot both in real-life and in fantasy. Beyond obvious names Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, I think Nurse is the most valuable player on the Oilers. Or at least the player they need the most.

He’s also a player that I’ve been told multiple times is ranked too low. From a fantasy standpoint, I will say Nurse isn't being drafted high enough (at least in Yahoo leagues). Currently his ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo leagues is 69, and he even fell to 82 and 84 in the two most recent mock drafts that I participated in (mock draft results here). I've moved him up five spots from 55 to 50, but not any higher because I think you could get away with picking him after the first four rounds of a 12-team draft. In other words, you shouldn't need to reach for him earlier than that (as long as your leaguemates don't visit Dobber Hockey as well!)

Here's a comparison of two different types of multicategory studs from last season: Nurse and Dougie Hamilton.  

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NameGPGAPTSPTS/GPacePPPSOG+/-PIMHitsBkS
DOUGIE HAMILTON551032420.76621818020355264
DARNELL NURSE561620360.645371542757117100

Is Nurse a Hamilton-lite? At first I thought so because both d-men's rankings are clearly higher in multicategory leagues than pure scoring leagues. Yet Dougie does it with anything directly and indirectly related to scoring, while Nurse is stronger in the bangers categories. Also, I'm not sure how the Oilers' power-play units will stack up, but Nurse will likely be on PP2 if they use a 4F-1D setup with Tyson Barrie re-signed. That's clearly an advantage Hamilton has over Nurse.

There is one type of multicategory league where Nurse could hold less value than in a pure points league, however. That would be in a multicategory league that counts power-play points and not many other categories. Nurse scored seven power-play points last season, which wasn't even in the top 30. However, only Mackenzie Weegar, Kris Letang, and John Carlson had more even-strength points than Nurse (29 EVP). If Nurse can somehow get onto Edmonton's first unit, look out.

How valuable is Nurse in leagues that count hits? Of the 14 defensemen with more hits than Nurse last season, only Weegar had at least as many points. In fact, Weegar had the same number of points and just one more hit as Nurse (along with finishing with +2 higher in plus/minus).  

On a side note, Weegar might not be getting enough attention in his own right, and he might also have a case for the top 100. As a result, I have added him to the wait list. He would be your "Nurse lite" if you missed out on Nurse.

Goalies always get a lot of attention in the rankings, and this month is no different. Trying to compare them to players is still apples and oranges because of the different categories. Then there's comparing one goalie to another, which generates a ton of debate on its own. Here's an example of one such debate from the Keeping Karlsson podcast:

Below is one goalie that is currently just outside the top 100. I'll have at least a couple more for you tomorrow.

Linus Ullmark

Ullmark appears to be on the verge of joining the top 100, and he hasn't even played a game for the Bruins yet. In Yahoo leagues, he's currently being drafted on average at 93, right behind the aforementioned Jordan Binnington and rookie Spencer Knight.

Some observations on Ullmark's numbers over the past two seasons in Buffalo:

SeasonGPWLOTLSOGASHAGAASV%QUAL%RBS%GSAA
2020-2021209630495912.630.91745.00.05.10
2019-2020341714319110662.690.91555.95.94.94

Ullmark's is a .500 goalie for both of the past two seasons. Not just .500 in wins and regulation losses, but also if you include overtime and shootout losses in those losses. That's not bad playing for a team like Buffalo. You want to know what else is not bad? The goals-against average and the save percentage. Maybe you didn't notice because he played in 50 percent or fewer of his team's games in both of those seasons.

Imagine playing in 20 games for Buffalo last season and NOT ONE of those games resulted in a Really Bad Start? What that means is that his save percentage in any one of those games was never below .850. That's impressive. Only Andrei Vasilevskiy and Alex Nedeljkovic started more games without an RBS last season.  

There's also the positive goals saved above average for two consecutive seasons. Did I mention that he accomplished this while playing for the Buffalo Sabres? In 2020-21, Ullmark's GSAA was better than many goalies, including Tuukka Rask and Binnington.  

I'm excited about Ullmark to the point where I made a trade offer for him in one league (it did not go through, unfortunately). Yet as far as the rankings go, I'm going to wait and see how he performs on a new team and with Jeremy Swayman (no RBS in 10 GP) also in the mix. But I certainly wouldn't object if you picked him before pick 100. After all, drafts, league settings, and team needs are all unique.

Fantasy Take: Ullmark Signs for Big in Boston

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 17 - 19:12 T.B vs CBJ
Dec 17 - 19:12 MTL vs BUF
Dec 17 - 19:12 PIT vs L.A
Dec 17 - 19:12 CAR vs NYI
Dec 17 - 20:12 NSH vs NYR
Dec 17 - 20:12 STL vs N.J
Dec 17 - 20:12 CHI vs WSH
Dec 17 - 21:12 CGY vs BOS
Dec 17 - 22:12 SEA vs OTT
Dec 17 - 22:12 S.J vs WPG

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
VICTOR OLOFSSON VGK
FRANK NAZAR CHI
ROSS COLTON COL
ALEX VLASIC CHI

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  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
SCOTT WEDGEWOOD COL
STUART SKINNER EDM
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BOS Players
20.1 PAVEL ZACHA DAVID PASTRNAK MORGAN GEEKIE
20.0 MARK KASTELIC TRENT FREDERIC CHARLIE COYLE
15.8 BRAD MARCHAND ELIAS LINDHOLM JUSTIN BRAZEAU

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Late Night News Bulletin

Jeremy and Shams are here with a late night recording of all the late breaking Thursday news highlighted by Victor Hedman and Anthony Stolarz. They also cover the return of J. T. Miller from his absence and the coach’s declaration that Jarry is the No. 1 goalie again. Lastly, they cover the new injury/outjuries and a host of hot & cold streaks.

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