Dobber Ramblings September 23

Training camps are open! Just a couple months after the end of the 2021 Cup Final, we're back on the ice. It was a quick turnaround, and I think that's something that can get lost on us as we head into this season. There are some players that did not get much of an offseason. Even teams that didn't get to the Cup Final were playing right into late June. The entire NHL basically got a month shaved off their regular offseason, though "regular offseason" isn't something that has applied for a couple years now. How does this affect a team like Tampa Bay, who has played more hockey than anyone in the last two seasons? I guess we're about to find out.

Two things as camps open:

1. Unless a player is returning from a debilitating injury – like Vladimir Tarasenko and his shoulder, for example – their physical conditioning is of no importance. Every player should be in excellent shape and if they're not, well, we'll find out very soon.
2. Coaches do not waste time putting line combinations together. They will tinker and experiment, but coaches aren't just putting lines together to fill practice space. Everything has a purpose, even if it's just to give us indications of what can come weeks/months down the road.

Just keep in mind not to get to excited over spots that will be filled soon, as guys like Quinn Hughes and Brady Tkachuk are signed.

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Auston Matthews opened camp on the IR

Auston Matthews is listed as injured on the #leafs training camp roster. He had wrist surgery last month and was still wearing a splint last week.

— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) September 22, 2021

This isn't a big surprise, given the surgery mentioned by Mr. Johnston. We just have to hope that his wrist will be fine for puck drop on opening night. When spending a top-5 fantasy pick on any player, we want their health to be as impeccable as possible. This certainly throws a small wrench into things for some, though I would still have no problem drafting him.

Staying with Leafs centres and their health:

Tavares said he passed final physical tests in July and "everything has been great since." #Leafs

— Terry Koshan (@koshtorontosun) September 22, 2021

Good news for JT.

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Very bad news for Alex Stalock:

From Ken Holland: unfortunately, Alex Stalock unlikely to play due to COVID-related heart condition. Very tough to hear (1/2)….

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) September 22, 2021

A reminder that this virus doesn't only affect 90-year-olds, or 50-year-old diabetics. They can affect completely healthy, young people for a long, long time. Please get your vaccine if you haven't and wear a mask when you're indoors in public. All the best to Stalock as he recovers from this. It can't be easy to lose your dream job in this manner.

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Staying with COVID:

Red Wings Steve Yzerman says Tyler Bertuzzi has declined to be vaccinated for COVID-19. Will be at camp, following guidelines, but anticipation is he will not travel to games in Canada.

— Helene St. James (@HeleneStJames) September 22, 2021

I won't get into the vaccination debate here. I just hope everyone takes one.

From a fantasy perspective, this is a disaster for Bertuzzi. Not playing games in Canada, by my count, shaves eight off, so he'll play no more than 74. Then there's the fact that unvaccinated people are much, much more likely to end up with more severe issues than their vaccinated counterparts. If Bertuzzi were to contract the virus, he's much more likely to suffer a lengthier absence. I don't like projecting injuries, but we know he's maxed out at 74 games and is coming off a severe injury anyway. Can we project more than 70?

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Back to medical clearances:

Ekblad said he's been medically cleared to play.

"I feel great."

— Jameson Olive (@JamesonCoop) September 22, 2021

I don't think it was a huge concern for most people but it's still nice to see, nonetheless. With Keith Yandle out of the mix, Ekblad looks to be the top PP option for a team that should be among the most potent offensively in the league. Combine that with his 24-25 minutes a night in ice time, and there's a very good reason why people are picking Ekblad as a top-5 fantasy defenceman.

The only thing holding people back may have been his health. That isn't really a concern now, though all "returning from knee injury" caveats apply.

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The Buffalo Sabres and Rasmus Dahlin have agreed to a three-year deal worth $6M a season. This will carry him to his age-24 season, at which point he'll still have a few years of RFA status left. This could end up being a pretty good deal for the Sabres, as they won't be rounding into form for a few years anyway, so Dahlin's new deal at that point won't have too many cap implications.

Whether he's worth $6M in cap leagues is uncertain. He isn't exactly a peripherals monster yet and that team could struggle to score goals this year. Forty points is within reach but I'm not sure 50 is, and at $6M, 40 points with middling peripherals is fine, but not great.

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A good read from Max Bultman over at The Athletic on Moritz Seider. It sure seems like the kid has all the tools necessary to be a top defenceman in the NHL sooner rather than later and as someone sitting on him in a dynasty league, I am all kinds of excited. Whether he puts in a full year in the NHL or not, we'll see. Just to see him in exhibition games should be enough to enthuse fantasy owners and Red Wings fans alike.

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Don't forget to grab your copy of the 2021 Dobber Hockey Guide! It is updated throughout camp so no need to worry about news impacting players.

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An interesting note that I had missed over the summer. Jamie Benn was moved to the middle at times last season with the injuries to Tyler Seguin and Roope Hintz. Apparently, the team is giving serious consideration to making that a full-time thing this year.

This is a curious thing because assuming Hintz and Radek Faksa remain centres, does this leave both Seguin and Joe Pavelski on the wing? If it does, that is going to mean a lot of face-off wins disappearing from their fantasy profiles.

Also, it could mean more minutes for Denis Gurianov. With Benn on the wing, there may not have been room in the top-6 for Gurianov. With Benn in the middle, there is now an extra top-6 spot that's open and Gurianov will fill either that, or the void left behind by the player that does. That changes Gurianov's outlook a lot in my book, as it would certainly add TOI to his game. Beyond that, he is likely to receive much more talented better line mates. I am going to wait and see exactly what lines look like a few days from now as training camps wear on, but Gurianov is of much more interest now.

My projection right now for Gurianov is 24 goals and 23 assists. I think that'll be somewhat higher than where most people have him, but I think Benn playing the middle can bring much more. My projection is based on Gurianov playing about 16 minutes a night. If he plays 17-18 instead? We have a 30-goal threat on our hands. Keep an eye for line combinations as camp wears on.

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How many NHL players have a bigger range of outcomes in their fantasy season than Charlie Coyle? It is possible he's the 2C between Taylor Hall and Craig Smith, and the fourth forward on one of the best power plays in hockey, for basically an entire season. He could also be shoved down to the bottom-6 by mid-November and completely flame out as a fantasy option.

I think we have to be reasonable about his upside; he's not going to hit 80 points or anything like that. But with good line mates and top PP deployment, can he get 60 points? Sure. And he can do so while putting up a couple shots and a hit per game. He won't rack up face-off wins, but by this point, that's all gravy for a guy with winger eligibility.

For posterity, right now, my projection for him is 15 goals and 39 points. That is without significant power-play time built into his profile. If he can get those minutes, 50 points is well within reach. And if the second line has particularly great chemistry? We see how he can get to 60 points.

At this point, I'm still not sure where to rank him but Coyle is absolutely going to be one of those guys on my "post-12^th round" list.

I should mention he'll miss about a week of camp. It is a concern, but the season doesn't start for three weeks. We have lots of time here.

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A couple days ago I wrote about Timo Meier and his ADP. Basically, he's going at the end of 12-team drafts and I though that would present a great buying opportunity.

I took Tuesday to start my projections (I've mentioned them a couple times throughout these Ramblings). I still have more tinkering to do, but it gives me an outline to start with, at least. My projections have Meier with 26 goals and 31 assists, and over 200 shots with over 100 hits. While his plus/minus will keep his overall ranking depressed, at worst this is a top-100 player. It's a top-50 player if he can get some meaningful PP production.

That isn't conjecture, either. Three years ago, Brayden Schenn was a top-50 player with 25 goals, 33 assists, plus-3 rating, 21 PPPs, 138 shots, and 119 hits. Let's say Meier has the same production, more shots and fewer PPPs. That about balances itself out, right? Or, in the same season, Evander Kane was a top-75 player with a minus-12 rating, which is probably a better gauge for Meier.

Unless he completely flops, it'll be hard not to profit off Meier's ADP. How much profit there is, well, we'll see. But he's one of my favourite targets this draft season.

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Speaking of ADPs, Cole Caufield's is very interesting to me. He's going around the top-100 picks, and I think that feels right? This is a guy with a lot production in his history and he looked great in the playoffs for the Habs. At the same time, as I've often mentioned, this team spreads out their ice time and even someone like Brendan Gallagher saw meagre ice time last season. Their winger rotation is just too deep to rely on two or three guys like other teams do.

In that sense, I don't know if Caufield gets much more than 15-16 minutes a game this year. I have him for 16:30 a night, which I think is on the high end, and at 27 goals and 50 points. That is a great season, and with his lack of hits, is nowhere near enough for a top-100 pick. David Perron and William Nylander have ADPs later than he does. They have Caufield's floor and a higher ceiling just because his ice time will be so limited. Something to keep in mind.