The Journey: Preliminary 2022 NHL Draft Rankings – Rounding Out The Top 15
Hadi Kalakeche
2021-09-25
Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing Fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.
This week, we will complete the first half of the 2022 NHL Draft preliminary top-30 and evaluate the talent available outside of the top-5. Even after last week's article outlining the first five selections of 2022, the talent pool is still overflowing. To compare, I believe that a handful of players available at this point would have gone first overall in the 2021 NHL Draft.
This year is no joke in terms of first-round talent depth, and it will be very difficult to split between prospects in the top 15. the idea is to create a starting point from which to adjust the rankings as the season goes on and players develop. Without further explanations, here are the selections:
Prospects selected in the top 5 (from last week's article):
- Shane Wright, C – Kingston Frontenacs
- Šimon Nemec, RD – HK Nitra, Slovakia
- Ivan Miroshnichenko, LW – Omskie Krylia, VHL
- Matthew Savoie, C/RW – Winnipeg Ice, WHL
- Brad Lambert, C/RW – JYP, Liiga
- Juraj Slafkovsky, LW – TPS Turku, Liiga
The Slovak winger barely misses out on the top-5, but truly has some game-breaking skills that could make him a dangerous player at the NHL level. On top of his impressive frame (6-4, 225 pounds), Slafkovsky can skate very well using strong strides and refined mechanics to win puck races and outpace defenders on the rush. He can deke his way through or around opponents with ease, using his head and shoulders to misdirect defenders and gain a couple of inches of ice to work with. His shot is heavy and he scores goals in a variety of ways, excelling in a net-front role due to his ability to tip pucks and gain positioning on rebounds. His playmaking is also impressive, with decent vision and accuracy to spot teammates in better positions.
His weaknesses are limited to his tendency to drag his feet at times, as well as his teammate utilization; he could also benefit from getting involved in his own zone at a higher rate. His areas of improvement are pretty run-of-the-mill for players this age, with no insurmountable problems that would severely hinder his chances of succeeding at higher levels. The winger has earned a point so far in four Finnish Liiga games, but looked better than the scoresheet indicates, and has a track record of good performance while playing above his age group, most recently earning 13 points in 16 games last season with TPS' U20 team, as a 16-year-old. His Hlinka-Gretzky Cup performance for Slovakia (3G, 6A in 5 games) really solidified his status as one of the top 2022 NHL Draft-eligibles, and he should be off the board early.
Fantasy Upside (points-only): 40G, 45A, 85P
NHL Certainty: 90%
- Danila Yurov, RW – Metallurg Magnitogorsk, KHL
Yurov is a prospect who already showed pro-level talent as a 16-year-old; he played 21 games for Magnitogorsk's KHL team last season, and although he only earned two points, it was mainly due to Russian pro teams' aversion to allocating ice-time to younger players. Yurov was, and still is, almost always the team's 13th forward, and often played five minutes or less when he was called upon. In his appearances on KHL ice, he was often a step ahead of the play mentally and has the foot speed required to assume the position he wants quickly. He plays a physical game, but has a lot of finesse to his puck skills as well. His smooth stride gets him across all three lines with ease, and his hands profit from the speed differentials he creates to get him through defensive formations.
As a 16-year-old last year, Yurov's junior production reached 25 points in 23 games, and he is now set to return with Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk to get some quality ice-time in the MHL, rather than sit on the bench at the pro level. It will be interesting to note the difference in Yurov's junior production pre- and post-KHL stint, to see what kind of effect such a process can have on a prospect's development curve.
Fantasy Upside (points-only): 35G, 45A, 80P
NHL Certainty: 90%
- Logan Cooley, C – USNTDP, USHL
The first of many NTDP prospects in the first round, Cooley's game stands out from the pack due to his ability to dictate the pace of play, and control all three zones with regularity. His skillset with the puck is well-rounded while unrefined, and his top speed and edgework are excellent. He puts in a constant effort no matter where he is on the ice, and is rarely seen dragging his feet or standing still. Cooley is a very dynamic offensive player with great instincts and accurate reads, and he can shift gears to get to pucks he normally wouldn't retrieve.
Cooley's production in the USHL last year (28 points in 27 games) was fourth among his draft class behind Matthew Savoie, Frank Nazar and Isaac Howard, but of the three, Cooley's floor is the highest, while still having decent offensive potential. I'd expect him to be the first American-born prospect to hear his name called in the 2022 NHL Draft.
Fantasy Upside (points-only): 30G, 45A, 75P
NHL Certainty: 95%
- Rutger McGroarty, C – USNTDP, USHL
McGroarty immediately follows his teammate at 9th-overall, as the young center has shown tremendous goal-scoring potential so far for the NTDP. His ability to fire a puck from any starting position makes him very difficult to contain, as he can easily drop down and fire a laser into the top corner at any moment. His distribution is also very effective, while lacking high-end creativity – he spots open lanes easily, but doesn't create them as much. McGroarty's defensive involvement is lackluster at times, but he uses his sizable frame (6-foot, 205 pounds) to shrug off forecheckers and find an outlet for pressure.
His skating needs some work, as he seems heavy on his skates and lacks separation speed or adequate four-way mobility. His offensive prowess will only go as far as his legs take him, as his off-puck smarts won't allow him to circumvent his sub-par stride. If he can work on his skating with dedicated staff who will bring out the most of McGroarty's edgework, he could be a very solid offensive producer at the NHL level.
Fantasy Upside (points-only): 40G, 40A, 80P
NHL Certainty: 85%
- Joakim Kemell, RW – JYP, Liiga
Kemell's play so far in his junior career has really made his pro start all the more impressive. He currently has three goals and two assists in five Liiga games, and has a long-standing record of dominating above his age group to back up his hot start at the men's level. His skating is almost irreproachable, which seems to be more and more of a trend with Finns and Swedes. He has a fluid and explosive stride which he uses efficiently by diversifying his rush patterns, attacking at defenders' feet before escaping their grasp with a quick weight shift or crossover. He can get selfish at times and stickhandle himself into a wall, but mostly uses his puck skills to circle around the offensive zone and open pass lanes, or to cross the length of the ice with little to no effort.
A goal-scorer by nature, Kemell boasts a strong release which pairs well with his slick hands, as he will often use his deception to fake a deke before ripping a shot, or the opposite. He is also very physical for his size (5-foot-11, 176 pounds) and gets involved defensively at a decent rate. He plays with a lot of intensity, and can carry his speed over long stretches of ice and time. A great offensive prospect to draft and develop into a power-play and transition specialist.
Fantasy Upside (points-only): 35G, 45A, 80P
NHL Certainty: 90%
- Seamus Casey, RD – USNTDP, USHL
The second right-handed blueliner and third NTDP prospect of the top-15, Casey brings a lot of mobility and reactiveness to the back-end, as well as an impressive variety of on- and off-puck skills. He tracks rushing forwards exceptionally well to stifle zone entries, and has tremendous distribution skills on breakouts and on the power-play. He spots and creates passing lanes effortlessly, and zips accurate stretch passes to forwards in transition. His shot, while being a decent weapon, has taken a back-seat in favor of his playmaking last year, as he tallied two goals and 18 assists in 30 USHL games. Prior to that, he had scored 11 goals in 15 U16 AAA games.
He makes plays like these regularly, beating the first wave of pressure and exploiting the space left behind. He is deceptive and manipulative in his offense, and stifling defensively, even in front of his own net, despite his short stature (5-foot-10, 161 pounds). He gets pushed around when he is skating, but from a standstill he manages to anchor himself well and fend off net-front opponents. Another great offensive defenseman to have in the pipeline – they usually don't come around this often.
Fantasy Upside (points-only): 15G, 45A, 60P
NHL Certainty: 80%
- David Jiricek, RD – HC Plzen, Czech Extraliga
Jiricek is a 6-foot-3, 175-pound right-handed defender with an outstanding skating stride; he glides effortlessly and uses his speed to activate from his zone or from the offensive blue line to create a ton of offense. He was already playing pro last season as a 17-year-old in the Czech Extraliga, and had nine points in 34 games. In comparison, Stanislav Svozil, a third-round pick of the Blue Jackets, earned five points in 41 games at the same age in that league, which is less than half as efficient as Jiricek's scoring rate. Since 2000-2001, no defenseman his age has earned more points than he did last season. His 2021-2022 campaign began not long ago and his team is off to a shaky start; the prospect has a goal in four games so far.
Partly due to playing against men from a young age, Jiricek has a great understanding of how to use his stick and body to gain leverage in puck battles. His defending is imposing and tenacious, as he covers a wide area of ice when boxing out forwards. With one push, he can go from one side of the blue line to the other, and uses his stick well to direct players toward the outside and away from passing options. He also has a heavy one-timer, which seems to be his weapon of choice for generating offense. He likes to carry the puck up the ice and can avoid forecheckers easily. There aren't many weaknesses in Jiricek's game, apart from a need to build some consistency, which warrants his place in the top-12.
- Isaac Howard, LW – USNTDP, USHL
Howard's stickhandling and skating combine with his intensity to make him a very difficult forward to contain. He can beat defenders to the outside with a burst of speed, or cut inside for a shot on goal. He can rip the puck with weight and precision, and regularly shoots through screens to cause some trouble for goaltenders. He has a long track record of scoring above or around a goal per game at lower levels, and earned 16 goals in 28 USHL games last year. He can also distribute the puck efficiently, without having the top-tier creativity to find teammates through multiple seams. He gets involved defensively as well, using his intensity to knock pucks loose in scrums and start the breakout.
Howard's stock might rise quickly this season, but as he is right now, he remains a notch below the forwards ranked ahead of him. If he can build his playmaking game up and get involved in transitions more, he could be a breakout prospect. He will need to learn to play in-between checks as well, in order to ensure that he receives more pucks in the slot.
Fantasy Upside (points-only): 40G, 40A, 80P
NHL Certainty: 80%
- Tristan Luneau, RD – Gatineau Olympiques, QMJHL
The fourth of many right-handed defensemen in this first round, Luneau played his 2020-2021 season in the QMJHL, with the Gatineau Olympiques. His performance for a draft -1 defenseman was impressive, with 18 points in 31 games; his defensive instincts are very sound, as he adapts to pressure well and covers for his partner when he ventures forward, but he also brings a great touch of offense via his skating. His footwork allows him to navigate the offensive zone and get smarter, better-placed passes and shots off. He also maps out his intentions before even receiving the puck, accelerating or pivoting while receiving a pass in order to face the next play.
Luneau's frame (6-foot-2, 175 pounds) is compounded by a strong base of lower-body strength and balance to make him difficult to shove off the puck, and he has an array of tricks up his sleeve to retrieve and retain pucks. Another great right-handed defenseman to pick up in the top-15.
Fantasy Upside (points-only): 15G, 40A, 55P
NHL Certainty: 80%
- Noah Östlund, C – Djurgårdens IF, J20 Nationell
The final pick of the top-15 is a Swedish center who has a lot of energy and skill, which he brings to every shift. Östlund's high-end skating makes him elusive when looking for pockets of space in which to receive the puck; he reads plays very well and jumps into passing lanes frequently, allowing him to showcase his strong shot and decent playmaking in transition. The 5-foot-10 center has a non-stop motor that keeps him circling and dashing into space on the cycle, and allows him to show his defensive awareness in his own zone. He has been lights-out in the Swedish J20 league with a goal and 10 assists in only five games, mainly due to being paired with a pure goal-scorer in Jonathan Lekkerimäki and clicking very well so far with the winger.
Östlund isn't without his flaws, as he can be pushed or pinned easily due to his slight frame and has to get more consistent with his passes, but he has shown so far that he can be very efficient when paired with a sniper who will bury his cross-ice feeds. A great prospect for a team looking to complement a scorer-heavy lineup.
Fantasy Upside (points-only): 25G, 45A, 70P
NHL Certainty: 85%