Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me and as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from DobberHockey Forum)

I'm in a 14 team, keep 15 league with rosters of 25 and starting 3C, 3RW, 3LW, 1 Util, 6D, 2G, plus with G, A, PPP, SOG, +/-, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, and SV% as categories. I took over a team last year that had been decimated. My plan was a two year rebuild – ambitious but also, I felt, realistic. To that end, I traded away Patrice Bergeron and Tom Wilson for decent draft picks.

My end-of-season roster (bloated due to a one year switch to unlimited IR) was: Anthony Cirelli, Kirby Dach, Marco Rossi, Connor McMichael, Jared McCann, Cody Glass, Sam Reinhart, Cole Caufield, Drake Batherson, Alex Iafallo, Andrei Burakovsky, Filip Zadina, Anthony Beauvillier, Mathieu Joseph, Colin Blackwell, Kevin Labanc, Nick Ritchie, Jamie Drysdale, Eric Cernak, Adam Boqvist, Noah Dobson, Brandon Montour, Ty Smith, Linus Ullmark, Pavel Francouz, Jake Oettinger, Casey DeSmith, Antti Raanta, Cayden Primeau, and Alexander Georgiev.

I'm pretty well set on 11 keepers, those being Cirelli, Dach, Rossi, Reinhart, Caufield, Batherson, Zadina, Drysdale, Dobson, Ullmark, and Oettinger. With the goal again to be contending in 2022-23, who would your other four keepers be, assuming you agree that all 11 merit a spot?

Looking at your list of 11, the name that jumps out – and not in a good way – is Cirelli. He's still 24 and hasn't hit his 200 game breakout threshold yet; but more and more it doesn't seem like he'll become a viable fantasy asset. He doesn't shoot much, gets PP scraps, and his scoring rate went down last season to under a point per every other game. Certainly Andrei Burakovsky is a better keep. Burakovsky ended last season scorching, with 17 points in 14 games, and he was seeing time on PP1 in some games, which is likely to continue, as Nazem Kadri was being deemphasized in that role.

Looking at the other players left, however, shows me that Cirelli is better than at least four of them, so he still gets a spot notwithstanding what I said above. To me those in contention for the remaining three slots are McMichael, McCann, Beauvillier, Boqvist, Smith, and Francouz. As for the others, they all have too many question marks and/or not enough upside as compared to the six I listed, so they're on the outside looking in.

Francouz is the oldest and signed just through this season, making it so he doesn't really fit well with the 2022-23 contention plan; but Darcy Kuemper is a Band-Aid Boy and two seasons ago Francouz played superb. He could see a lot of time in net for Colorado, making it so you can sell high on him and get a rebuilding piece or a nice draft pick. On the other end of the spectrum is McMichael, the top prospect on a team which has three of its top six forwards age 33+. The issue is McMichael, notwithstanding the shot he should get while Nicklas Backstrom is injured, is he likely won't be hitting his stride until the top Caps forwards are fading, hurting his production. With youngsters like Caufield, Batherson, Rossi, Zadina and Dach being kept already, I think McMichael is a safe to let go.

McCann showed last season he can produce; but nine of his PPPts came with Sidney Crosby and/or Jake Guentzel on the ice, and he had great late season chemistry with Jeff Carter, with all three of them of course still in Pittsburgh. It's not clear how McCann will respond to being a "the guy" type of player, since he'd never had the spotlight shined squarely on him in his career. Plus, the skill level of those with whom he'll be regularly playing in Seattle is well below that of Crosby and Guentzel, and maybe even Carter – that is, even if McCann has talent, can he succeed without better talent around him?

Beauvillier tantalizes every season; yet if we look at his numbers overall we see greatness for a stretch of 10-15 games, but then he goes cold, such that he's yet to show he's more than a 50 point player over the course of a full 82 game season. Still, last season his SOG and scoring rates did rise and he's just 24 years old. Plus, if you keep him you can shift him into the line-up when he's on a torrid pace, then put him on the bench when he cools.

Boqvist looked like he was poised to step into a prominent role on Chicago………until he was dished to Columbus, which just inked Zach Werenski to a deal that all but ensures he – not Boqvist – will be the top dog when it comes to blueline offense. If this was a team like Colorado, perhaps Boqvist could be a Samuel Girard to Werenski's Cale Makar; however, Columbus, even without John Tortorella at the helm, figures to be not such an offensive powerhouse, meaning Boqvist could struggle to produce.

Much of what was said about Boqvist also applies to Smith, except in his case Dougie Hamilton signed as a UFA for huge money, making it so Smith's upward path to success is hindered if not blocked entirely. And like Columbus, New Jersey isn't such a high-powered offense as to allow Smith to rack up points without optimal deployment.

In the end, Cirelli does get one of the four spots. I'd give another to Beauvillier, since of those left he has shown the most in terms of being able to go on amazing 10-15 games streaks, and when he cools he can be put on the bench. I also like the gamble on Francouz. There will almost assuredly be a time, whether due to Kuemper getting hurt or Francouz playing well, where Francouz gets a chance to shine, and that's when you can ransom him off. Yes it's a risk, but given your choices I like it. The last spot I think should go to McCann, as he's the only one who's guaranteed top deployment. It is a bit concerning that you would only be keeping two defensemen, such that if you want to opt for Boqvist or Smith instead of Francouz or McCann I can get behind that, with my choice between the d-men being Smith, since he is the higher volume shooter and showed more as a rookie. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Kevin)

I'm in a points-only, 12-team, H2H league with 31 player rosters and starting 12F, 5D, 2G, plus 12 Bench and 2IR. Each team gets to protect ten players, plus five "young" players, so really we’re all protecting 15 in total, with no player being keepable for more than five consecutive years. As it turns out, I have exactly five players (Kaapo Kakko, Bowen Byram, Marco Rossi, Kaapo Kahkonen and Cal Petersen) who qualify as "young" players, so only the ten "regular" keepers are up for debate.

I'm pretty settled on six of my ten regular keepers in Auston Matthews, Jonathan Huberdeau, Jake Guentzel, Sean Couturier, Sam Reinhart, and Travis Konecny. I’m also leaning towards keeping both Sergei Bobrovsky and Linus Ullmark. I figure they can be at least reliable for getting plenty of starts given their contracts. Plus, in doing so I won’t have to use a draft pick on a goalie, with Bobrovsky, Ullmark, Kahkonen, and Petersen already being kept.

That would leave me two spots for the following players: Morgan Rielly, Zach Werenski, Samuel Girard, William Karlsson, Timo Meier, and Christian Dvorak. Rielly, Werenski and Karlsson would be on their fifth keeper season, so if I do keep them this it is for each. Meier can be held for two more seasons, while it would be the first keeper season for both Girard and Dvorak, meaning I could keep both for up to four more years.

I’m fully in win now mode, which is helped by two third-round picks in this year’s draft. Also, several elite forwards will be available in the first round because of the five-year rule, and I have the seventh pick overall, with whom I should be able to grab Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, Artemi Panarin, Mark Scheifele, Jack Eichel, Mika Zibanejad, or Johnny Gaudreau. Talent starts to peter out after those seven, and trust me when I say no elite d-men or goalies will be available.

With all these things in mind, who would be your ten non-young keepers?

First off, the goalie plan seems reasonable. You don't list your categories but do seem to imply that goalies who'll play a lot have value, and indeed Bob and Ullmark should be high volume starters, plus Kahkonen could become the #1 or at least 1A in Minnesota and Petersen has already taken ahold of the starting job for what figures to be an improved LA team. So I'm on board with this.

Girard is definitely someone I want to keep. Yes, Cale Makar casts a long shadow; but Girard showed last season there's room for two scoring defensemen on the Avs, producing at a 55 point rate despite only two points in his last 12 games. What I really like about Girard is his IPP has increased each season, with it being 50.0% in 2020-21. That shows he has a nose for scoring, which is so key to be a productive defenseman. Yes, he won't sniff PP1 unless Makar gets hurt; but the Avs are deep enough that their second unit will still have capable players. Yes, Girard does not shoot much and his OZ% was above 62% in 2020-21. Still, I think he's a solid keeper, especially given he can be held onto for four more seasons.

The last spot is a toughie. I'm not sold on Dvorak even now on Montreal, as he's well past his breakout threshold yet still doesn't seem to be making strides. Plus, he was ostensibly brought in to replace Philip Danualt, who was never was a big scorer. Meier is hurt by being on San Jose and lack of PP Time. But he's also not playing well, and by the end of 2020-21 was on the third line. It's looking more like Meier's 2018-19 was perhaps an outlier and he's not a 60+ point guy.

I think you have two options. First, you could balance the ability to keep Girard for a long time by having your last keeper be one who can be kept only this season. Alternatively, you could package the seventh pick for a player who becomes your last keeper or as part of a deal for one.

For the first option, I'd go with Rielly. Yes, the worry is he's become too unselfish and his impending UFA status might weigh on him negatively like it seemingly did last season with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins; but despite a 2020-21 that most would label a disappointment, Rielly still scored at a 52-point-pace, with Werenski's career best being only 53. On Toronto Rielly should be able to sleepwalk to 50+ points, with 60+ being viable if he stays on PP1 and puts a bit more emphasis on scoring. That's enough to elevate him over Werenski, who's hurt by being on a team which projects to be a whole lot worse offensively than Toronto. As for Karlsson, it's clear now his first season in Vegas was an outlier, and he's not keepable.

I raise the second option because Gaudreau is a step down from those other six. However, you might be able to find a fellow GM who doesn't realize this and will trade you a retainable asset for the enticement of the pick plus, if need be, one of your borderline retainable guys. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Nicolas)

I'm in a 13 team keeper where your number of keepers is determined by your finish in the standings, and any player yet to appear in 50 NHL games can be kept for free. I finished second, so I get eight keepers, the same number the first place team gets, with the rest of the teams getting more, topping out at 13 keepers for the 11th, 12th, and 13th place teams. So with five keepers less than several teams, I need to make them count. It's points only for skaters, while for goalies it's two points for a win (with two extra points for a shutout win) and one point for a loss in OT or shootout.

My team, in order from best to worst in terms of fantasy points earned last season, is: Jake Guentzel, Marc-Andre Fleury, Pavel Buchnevich, Elias Lindholm, Blake Wheeler, J.T. Miller, Jason Robertson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Shea Theodore, William Karlsson, Dominik Kubalik, Torey Krug, Christian Dvorak, Jack Roslovic, Adrian Kempe, Kevin Labanc, Filip Hronek, Erik Karlsson, Erik Gustafsson, Andreas Johnsson, Nikita Gusev, K'Andre Miller, Aleksi Heponiemi, Nick Robertson, Connor McMichael. Who are your eight keepers? I'd prefer not to keep Fleury, since only one goalie starts for each team so most teams won't keep one, or one at most, leaving plenty from which to choose on draft day.

If you think Fleury is not a keep, I'll take your word for it. I figured he was; however, you know your league better than me, so I'll disregard him. As for defensemen, I think you have two keepable ones in Theodore and Krug. Hronek is fine, but as I've said before in this column he strikes me as a Cam Fowler, Alex Goligoski, or Tyler Myers type who'll probably finish with 35-45 points most seasons. I also believe Moritz Seider will end up getting better deployment once he's ready, which also will be when Detroit will be righting its ship, and Hronek will have tougher minutes. Karlsson is a non-keep at this point. Yes, there's a chance somehow he finds a way to channel the EK of old; however, he's not worth a keep when you only have eight in total – maybe if you were one of the teams with 13….

In terms of forwards, let's focus first on those who assuredly don't make the cut, which are Kempe and Labanc, plus Gusev I think, although if – big if – somehow Gusev gels with Toronto's big guns he could be in for a great season. That leaves you with 11 forwards for six spots. Four who I think are easier cuts are Karlsson and Kubalik, plus Dvorak and Roslovic. The first two don't offer enough upside due to Karlsson's now predictable 55-60 point scoring pattern plus the unwillingness of the Blackhawks to give Kubalik enough ice time at ES and on the PP to have him be more than a 55 point player either. Maybe Kubalik finds a way to overcome this and turn into a Nikolaj Ehlers; however, I think Chicago sees him as someone who, for whatever reason, they cannot rely upon as a top scoring option. As for Dvorak and Roslovic, both might have bigger things in store; but I'm not sure it's worth taking the risk on either one given the other options. Again, it's a shame you don't have more keepers.

That means one player is omitted from these seven: Guentzel, Buchnevich, Lindholm, Wheeler, Miller, Robertson, Bjorkstrand. The two I'm focused on as possible non-keeps are Wheeler and Robertson. Yes, Wheeler is 35; but his scoring pace held steady from 2019-20 to 2020-21. Although Wheeler's SOG rate dropped for the second straight season, his SH% rose for the second straight campaign, lending credence to the idea he's simply becoming a more selective – and, in turn, accurate – shooter. He's less potent on the PP; but that just means he's now a 75-point player rather than a 90 point one.

With Robertson, my concern is I'm not sure he finds a spot on Dallas' PP1, as he wasn't on the top unit last season and didn't force the issue in that he had the 115th most PP time among forwards but tied for 125th in PPPts. That having been said, all six of his PPPts came in his last 32 games, so he did better as the season unfolded. Still, with Alexander Radulov and Tyler Seguin both healthy now and Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz all in the mix, Robertson seems earmarked for PP2. The silver lining, I suppose, is at least one of those five will be there with him, plus Miro Heiskanen or John Klingberg, so it will be a pretty good second unit. Getting back to PPPts though, looking at rookie forwards who, like Robertson and since 2000-01, had a scoring rate of .85+ in 50+ games yet failed to average .15 PPPts per game we see that only meets the criteria – Patrik Laine. But he was an 18-year-old rookie, whereas Robertson was 21. His age is important, as going back to 2020-21 the last 21 year old rookie who had a 0.85 point per game or better rate in 50+ games was Bobby Ryan, who played well for a while but faded. In other words, Robertson, while by no means an "old" rookie, might have less upside due to his age.

Moreover, if you put Robertson on the trade block before the season I think he'd fetch you a very nice return as his value is quite high. Perhaps you offer him plus Wheeler and look to get an upgrade for your last keeper? That's what I'd do. If offseason trading isn't allowed, or you get no takers, in the end I'd probably keep Wheeler. Yes, he's peaked; however, looking at other wingers who also tallied 91+ points at least twice at age 31 or later since 2000-01, we get Jaromir Jagr and Martin St. Louis. Jagr had 96 points at age 34, while St. Louis had 94 at 34 and 99 at 35. In other words, Wheeler's track record cuts against his production cratering. In the end, if I can't make a trade I'm keeping Wheeler. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Kevin)

I’m in 11 team, 25 player roster, 6 player keeper league where you can keep a maximum of 2 players per position (starting line-ups are 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, plus 4 utility one of which can be a goalie). Scoring is 1 point for G, A, PPG, SHA, 0.5 for PPA, 2 for SHG; 2 for W, 1 for SO, .01 for each SV.

My four locked in keepers are Artemi Panarin, Jack Eichel, Aleksander Barkov, and Andrei Svechnikov. For my other two potential keepers I need to decide between T.J. Oshie, Cole Caufield, Shea Theodore, Zach Werenski, and Darcy Kuemper. I was thinking Theodore and Oshie, but I'm not sure if I should gamble on Caufield or Kuemper. In case it matters, I have the 2nd and 3rd overall picks after keepers. What are your thoughts?

First off, the four locks are definitely head and shoulders above the rest, so you'll get no push back from me in terms of choosing them. As for the rest, the way to look at it is 66 players are kept by 11 teams, so ideally you should have two of the 66 best players as your keepers, or perhaps a prospect who has huge home run potential. Who fits the bill? Not Oshie. Even placing aside the fact that he'll be 35 before the calendar flips to 2022, he's also had a pattern in Washington of on year followed by off year, as his scoring pace in his six seasons there has been 52, 67, 52, 64, 58, and then 68 in 2020-21. So he's due to regress. Although he's shot well above his career SH% rate in each of the past three seasons, his rate for 2020-21 was his highest ever, to go along with his highest ever PPG per game rate, with his 13 in just 53 games being the most PPGs he's scored in any season regardless of how many games. He's not a keeper given all these factors. Neither is Werenski. Yes, the team showed its commitment to him in the form of a large deal, and Seth Jones is now in Chicago. That being said, it's not clear to what extent, if any, the Blue Jackets offense will be better this season or even in the next couple. As with Oshie, he's not top 66 material and thus not a keeper.

Who is a keeper then? Theodore. He just keeps getting better and the presence of Alex Pietrangelo doesn't seem to be cutting against his scoring. Yes, his IPP on the PP was a bit high for 2020-21; but he's still a lock for 60 points and has 70 point upside if he sees more time on the PP, as he did in 2019-20, and provided the team's offense continues to thrive.

The last spot boils down to Kuemper or Caufield. This is not the league for Kuemper, as when he's on top of his game he excels at SV% and GAA, neither of which are categories. He's also an injury risk, and the Avs know that. As such, and with a capable back-up in Pavel Francouz, who, before missing 2020-21 due to injury had a very strong 2019-20 regular season, the team probably envisions capping Kuemper's starts at 50, helping to hopefully avoid injury and keeping him fresh for the playoffs. Yes, he'll probably do quite well in the games he does play; however, less skilled goalies on worse teams likely will have more value in this league than Kuemper. As for Caufield, what he's shown so far has been tantalizing. But he still might need a season or two or even more to fully hit his stride. Can a raw prospect be kept in this league? I suppose so, as the team will have 19 draft picks to build around him. Still though, I feel like Caufield might not be the answer.

What I'd try to do is put Oshie, Kuemper and Caufield on the trading block, plus perhaps one of your two top draft picks, in hopes of landing another "difference maker" keeper. I'm guessing a team will be tantalized enough by Caufield or have visions of Kuemper being a Vezina quality netminder, plus will be intrigued by the early pick. Try to seize on that to get a solid player in return, preferably a sniper, as your other keepers are more assists-heavy. If somehow you can't make a deal, probably I keep Kuemper if it's normal in your league to keep two goalies, or Caufield if the very best prospects are routinely kept. In other words, barring a trade do what is customary for your league. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Brian)

This season will be my first in a brand new 10 team dynasty/keeper H2H points league. I have five draft picks in the top 35 — 1st, 13th, 23rd, 26th and 35th. Next year the criteria for keepers will be three forwards, two defensemen and one goalie. Knowing this, what players do you think I should I be targeting with my second and third picks? I was thinking stud defensemen, and then goalies? What are your thoughts?

You didn't specify what goalie stats are counted, nor whether forward positions matter. Those are relevant factors in terms of your picks, because if goalie categories are just wins and shutouts then it probably doesn't pay to pick a goalie in the early rounds as stats will be pretty bunched together, whereas the best of the best in terms of skaters will be markedly better than the rest of the pack.

You also didn't ask about first overall, which I can only take to mean you'll do the right thing and select Connor McDavid. In a points-only league he's the only possible pick on paper. For #13, I definitely do not like the idea of a goalie, as I believe Andrei Vasilevskiy will be gone by then and drop off from him to the rest of the pack is pronounced enough to let you wait to get a goalie. Consider that last season Vas had 31 wins and Phillipp Grubauer had 30, then only seven had 21-26 wins whereas 14 had between 15 and 19 wins, with many of those in the 21-26 range not having been predicted to be as good as many of those in the 15-19 range. As such, the answer is to put goalies into tiers and not pick a goalie until as close to the end of your tier as possible. That way you ensure you're not reaching for someone at a position where it is hardest in today's NHL to predict success.

As for defensemen versus forwards for your second and third picks, let's look at the gaps between the best of the best to the merely excellent. For defensemen last season, here are the numbers in various points per game ranges for those who played in 30+ games: 0.82+ (six), 0.73 to 0.79 (five), 0.69 to 0.60 (11), 0.59 to 0.50 (14). The data for forwards is as follows: 1.5+ (two), 1.38 to 1.30 (three), 1.2 to 1.22 (three), 1.18 to 1.11 (six), 1.08 to 1.00 (seven), 0.98 to 0.91 (ten). But another factor is age, as among the top ten in terms of points per game in 30+ games, half of the defensemen have already turned 30, versus just two of the top ten forwards.

What does this tell us in terms of who to draft and when? Elite defensemen are a rarer commodity; but they're also older, and thus riskier to grab. It's also relevant that you keep only one fewer defenseman than forwards. While I realize Yahoo drafts are not perfect references for points only leagues, as they factor in other categories, data shows that Cale Makar is the only rearguard being picked in the top 25; but then seven more are picked in the 26 to 50 range. Given these factors, I'd definitely grab Makar, who's the best of the best when it comes to defensemen, with pick 13 if he's there. If he's not though, don't reach for another d-man, as chances are you can still get a young top tier rearguard at pick 23 or 26. Instead, grab an elite forward at pick 13.

What about goalies? In Yahoo leagues Vas is getting picked 5th overall, so he won't make it to you at pick 13. If he somehow does though, snatch him up. After Vas, three goalies are being picked in the top 25 and three more from 26-50. Only six off the board by pick 50. Given this, and how unpredictable the position has been of late, I'd probably not opt for a goalie with any of your top five picks.

My last piece of advice is although I don't know what your roster sizes are, six keepers in a ten-team league is not a lot. The fewer the keepers the less afraid you have to be able drafting older players. Yes, you want to avoid too many players who seem like they've peaked; however, you don't have to feel the need to go super young, as that would not be getting proper value for the here and now plus also not even gaining an advantage when it comes to keepers. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Ron)

I'm in a keep 15 league with 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 1UTIL, 2G in starting line-ups, plus 5 bench spots, 4 IR spots, and NA. Skater categories are G, A, +/-, PIM, PPPts, SOG, FW, and goalie categories are W, GA, GAA, SV, SA, SV%, and SO. Keepers and games played requirements are based on the 56 regular season games in 2020-21, where 56 of a possible 82 games is 68.3% of a regular season. Minimum games played for keepers is skaters 25 * 0.683 or 17 games played during a singular NHL regular season and, for goalies, is 15 * 0.683 or 10 games played during a singular NHL regular season. Since there is one NA spot, only 14 keepers have to meet the games played criteria, with the player who was in your NA spot at the end of last season being exempt from that requirement. Unfortunately that means I will lose Cole Caufield and Marco Rossi, both of whom don't meet the minimum games requirement and were not in my NA spot.

I have a list of ten locked-in keepers: Leon Draisaitl, Sebastian Aho, Adam Fox, Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Suzuki, Patrice Bergeron, Marc-Andre Fleury, Cal Petersen, Jordan Binnington and Torey Krug. For the last five spots my probables are Kris Letang, John Klingberg, Noah Dobson, Kevin Fiala and Pavel Buchnevich. Others who could be kept are Blake Wheeler, Jonathan Toews, Oliver Wahlstrom, Kevin Lankinen, Jordan Kyrou, William Karlsson. Would you consider any bubble guys as keepers or stick with my list of 15?

First off, goalies are gold in this league, as although they comprise only 11% of each team's active roster there are as many goalie categories as skater categories. What does that mean in terms of your list? Yes, only two goalies are in the active line-up so theoretically your team could still be okay running with just Petersen and Binnington. However, it makes you stop and consider whether Lankinen merits inclusion as a keeper. Even if other teams just keep two, that means 30 goalies off the board. Yes, Lankinen looked very shaky during the 2020-21 season and slots as the back-up to Fleury this season, plus is a UFA next summer, with no guarantee he'll be signed. Yet what if Fleury gets hurt or falters?

The question is – does the "just in case" potential of Lankinen make more sense than, say, Dobson. Yes, Dobson is a very highly regarded prospect; but last season the team opted to use Nick Leddy on PP1, not Dobson. It's possible they wanted Dobson to get seasoning; but there's also the issue that whomever is on PP1 won't get getting heaps of PP time anyway, as looking at the highest percentage of the team's PP minutes that any Islanders rearguard has had since Barry Trotz became coach, we see it was 58.6% in 2017-18, 53.6% in 2019-20, and 49.0% in 2020-21. This is not an encouraging trend if you're a Dobson owner, as although one could argue the percentage dropped because there was no one deserving of a higher percentage, it signifies that it's highly unlikely any Islander rearguard – including Dobson – will receive ample PP time while Trotz remains at the helm.

Perhaps, all things considered Lankinen is worth a gamble over Dobson. If not Lankinen, then I'd opt for Wheeler, who, as noted above, has some fine comparables and who, despite slowing a bit in the last two seasons, likely still has gas left in the tank to make him worthy as a keeper. Otherwise I'd go with the names you listed to round out the 15. Whichever direction you decide to go in, good luck!

Question #7 (from Dave)

In a dynasty league where skater categories are G(4), A(2), PPPt(0.5), HIT(0.5), BLK (0.5), +/-(0.5), who would you keep – Dylan Larkin or Nick Suzuki?

Full disclosure – for questions like these, I usually think in my head who'll win, then do my research to see if I'm wrong, which, sometimes I am. Here I'm at a loss initially. Larkin shoots more and thus should have more coveted goals; but Suzuki is basically better in all the other multi-cat areas. Suzuki is also younger; but Larkin is poised to hit his prime when the Wings should be a much-improved team. Neither seems at risk to lose their "spot " as #1 center. It seems like a dead heat, so let's dig deeper.

Larkin had one great season, when both Tyler Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha were healthy. Since then, he's never played with both for a full season and – lo and behold – his production waned. And before everyone points out that Detroit added Jakub Vrana last season, who was a point per game player in his 11 games as a Wing, Larkin was not on the ice for any of Vrana's 11 points, and Larkin himself only had a single point in four games during that stretch. Yes, Bertuzzi is back to health, although he will miss games due to being unvaccinated. Still though, players like Michael Rasmussen, Filip Zadina, and Lucas Raymond are primed to take on major roles. But Suzuki has established stars Tyler Toffoli and Mike Hoffman, and top prospect Cole Caufield to support him as well.

One key is Suzuki is three years younger than Larkin and, as 2020-21 rolled on, was shooting more (66 SOG in his final 27 games) plus had seven of his 15 total goals in his last 11 games alone. Moreover, Suzuki had seven goals in 22 playoff contests on 53 SOG. So Larkin's goals apparent edge in goals might not be an edge at all.

Looking more at Suzuki's 2021 playoffs, he tallied 16 points in 22 games, all at the age of 21. The last five forwards to have at least that many points in a single season's playoffs while age 21 or younger were Elias Pettersson, David Pastrnak, Brayden Point, Leon Draisaitl, and Nikita Kucherov. Although the jury is still out on Pettersson, the other four have gone on to have great success before age 25.

This is still pretty close – close enough that I could see someone making a case for Larkin. In the end I like Suzuki more due to his age, his trends in SOG and goals, his edge in multi-cat, and what he showed in this past season's playoffs. Good luck!

Question #8 (from the DobberHockey Forums)

I'm in a keeper league with $200 to spend on 12F/6D/3G. Categories are G, A, Pts, SOG, PIM, +/-, W, GAA. I can keep three players, one of whom will be Connor McDavid at $36. I'm also leaning toward Brad Marchand at $26. That would leave me with one more spot with the choices being Zach Hyman ($4), Vladimir Tarasenko ($4), Martin Necas ($1), Mike Smith ($1). Would you keep Marchand and, if so, who would the third keeper be? For context on goalie prices, Tier One starters are ~$35, Tier Two guys are ~$25, and solid timeshare guys go for roughly $15.

Marchand is tailor made for this league, although even with his stellar numbers in your categories it begs the question if he's better than guys who cost a small fraction of his price tag. If you do keep him, that would be 31% of your cap space for him and McDavid (who's of course a must keep), leaving you $138 to spend on the other 17 players, for an average of just above $8 per player. That's not a lot; but given the prices for Hyman, Necas and Tarasenko, cheap options exist. When push comes to shove I think Marchand is just too perfect of a fit for this league to not be kept.

Hyman should do much the same as he did in Toronto. But without much upside, he's not the guy. Necas has seen big gains in scoring rate each season; however, it's not clear whether he'll be on PP1, which could flatten his trajectory. As for Tarasenko, the word is he's healthy; and one has to figure that he'll be playing well, whether on St. Louis to try and facilitate a trade or on his new team to show he was worth the price they paid to land him. Smith had a superb 2020-21 and enters 2021-22 as the presumed starter, yet he's at an age where injuries or a drop in performance are real risks.

Given the prices you mentioned, I think Smith is the keep here. Being the #1 in Edmonton will get him plenty of wins, and his GAA was already quite good last season, plus the Oilers got stronger on defense by adding Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci. Moreover, with 3G needed in line-ups, the value of goalies is higher than normal, and here you can lock down a very solid one down at a truly bargain price and on the team which happens to have the fewest back-to-back games this season. Good luck!

Question #9 (from Hayden)

I'm in a 14 team, H2H, keep 4 league with categories of G, P, A, PIM, PPP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SVS, and SV%, roster size of 19, and starting lineups of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1UTIL, 2G. My current roster is Gabriel Landeskog, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Dougie Hamilton, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Trevor Zegras Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan Strome, Zach Hyman, Kirby Dach, Jordan Eberle, Quinton Byfield, Esa Lindell, Chandler Stephenson, Ryan Pulock, Dmitri Orlov, Mario Ferraro, Jacob Markstrom, Jake Allen. Besides Landeskog and Dougie, I’m having trouble selecting two other keepers. What would you suggest, and also what would be your draft strategies? 

First off, I'm on board with Landy and Hamilton. Landy is a stat stuffer and Hamilton should be allowed to shine in New Jersey. No qualms with them being two of the four given your options.

In your shoes I'm making room for Markstrom. While his stats for all of 2020-21 don't look that great, he allowed two or fewer goals in 12 of his last 15 games, which is key since that stretch saw him start 15 of a possible 16 contests. He should be a workhorse this season too; and with how he ended 2020-21, I like him as a keepable asset for you.

You can go in a lot of directions for the last keeper. The safest would be Strome, who proved he was not a one-season wonder and likely will remain tethered to Artemi Panarin, who's entire NHL career has been devoted to making people around him better. On top of all that, Strome is set to be a UFA after this season, so he'll have added motivation to play at the top of his game.

Kuznetsov is intriguing. He's scoring rate has dropped by ten points in each of the past two seasons, during each of which he's also lost roughly a minute of ice time and 30 seconds of man advantage minutes. He's definitely not trending in the right direction, but he's also locked into the top six for the Caps, unless he's traded, in which case it'd likely be to a team where he'd be given better deployment. It's possible he remains complacent and plays poorly yet again; however, he might be motivated to right his ship whether by pride or to help facilitate a trade. He's one of those rare players whose scoring rate truly could vary by up to 25 points depending on where the cards fall.

Then there's Caufield and Zegras, two players who are still young and raw but who opened everyone's eyes with their strong play at the end of 2020-21. Either one is capable of making a huge leap; however, they also could only make small gains until their breakout threshold, which, for both, won't come for another couple of seasons. So while you could call Kuznetsov a risk/reward option due to the how wide a range his scoring could be, these two are risk/reward because they could defy the odds and break out earlier than usual, or could only make incremental steps, in which case they'd disappoint.

My pick would be Strome. The fewer the keepers the less tolerance there is for risk or the unknown. It is possible Strome could be outscored by one or more of these players; but I'd say the chances of that happening are maybe 25%; and even if it did occur, it probably wouldn't be by a lot. As such, go the safe route and stick with Strome.

This segues nicely into draft strategy. First and foremost, I think this team was too young. With only 11 skater spots in active line-ups and rosters of 19 total, plus only four keeper spots, you should have one or maybe at most two prospects.

Also, I see guys who just are category fillers, most notably Lindell and Ferraro. In this league, the only category I'd draft specifically for is FW, trying to grab one or two forwards who are winger eligible but contribute in that category. Sure – in the later rounds you can pick up guys who should help in some of the categories; but don't draft with category tunnel vision.

I am also not a fan of drafting players with little to no realistic upside. Take a guy like Eberle. He will give you fits because he'll get hot, then you'll put him in the line-up only to see him cool off. He's not enough of a steady contributor and he has zero upside. I'd also put Orlov and Marchessault in the same category. In contrast, I like Stephenson, as he was on the top line and he could improve. Suzuki is young but has already shown he's capable of playing well and still could do even better.

Rather than going to the draft with a ranking of players and picking the best player who is left on your list, I'd instead advocate putting players in positional tiers based on what they should produce with respect to your categories as a whole. Take players from positional tiers until that tier is empty, and then and only then move on to the next positional tier. Do focus though on defensemen and wingers, as there less depth in those positions than center. And when it comes to goalies, don't reach early since if the past two seasons have taught us anything it's that there as so many who are interchangeable. Plus, by keeping Markstrom you can ignore the position for longer than those in your league who didn't retain a netminder. Good luck!

Question #10 (from Eric)

Last season I won my money league (12 team; H2H; 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 1F, 4D, 2G; G, A, P, PIM, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, SO) but I traded virtually all my picks to do so. We get three keepers each, and mine are Leon Draisaitl, Brad Marchand, and Mika Zibaneijad. My draft picks are almost entirely after 130th, with eight picks between 180 and 225. Who should I target in this super late range? I am very active on Free Agency through the season, so I should be able to get a couple darling defensemen and a goalie or two. Is building a team through Free Agency viable?

Those are great keepers, probably among the best overall in a 12-team league. With a total of only 36 players being kept, however, you'll miss out on the next nearly 100 best players. That's a tough pill to swallow no question.

What exactly do you stand to miss out on by virtue of not picking until after 100 names are called? Let's assume the players who are selected in the rounds before your first picks correlate to the ratio of each position with respect to the starting line-up, which, in this case, is 13 players, seven (or 55%) of whom are forwards, four (or 30%) of whom are defensemen, and two (or 15%) of whom are goalies. That means out of the 100 picks you're likely to miss, if I had to guess I'd say roughly 55 should be forwards, 30 should be defensemen, and 15 should be goalies. That's on top of the 36 players retained, where I'm thinking that the majority will be forwards and defensemen, with perhaps one or two teams at most keeping a goalie.

Armed with this information, here are some potential targets. I won't elaborate on each player, and they're all listed in no particular order. What I tried to do is land on those who should (a) be available, (b) do well in general and, if possible, with an eye toward your categories, and (c) have little to no downside and/or some decent upside.

For goalies, the names I'd hope for are Mike Smith, Tristan Jarry, Carter Hart, Cal Petersen, and Thatcher Demko. On defense, I like Neil Pionk, Ivan Provorov, Samuel Girard, Mark Giordano, Drew Doughty, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Zach Werenski. Lastly for forwards, those I'd target include Bryan Rust, Tom Wilson, Jamie Benn, Teuvo Teravainen, Sean Couturier, Josh Anderson, Dominik Kubalik, Ryan Strome, Bo Horvat, Vincent Trocheck, Anders Lee, Anthony Mantha, Marcus Foligno, Chris Kreider, James van Riemsdyk, Joe Pavelski, Martin Necas, and David Perron.

Remember – you won last year; and in a keep three league, it's tough to repeat, especially if you're gutted when it comes to draft picks. Hopefully you find a way to contend; however, if you don't, then you should be sure to sell such that the script is flipped for next season and you're the one holding extra draft picks. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.