Capped: Team-By-Team Buy and Sell – Part 2
Logan Doyle
2021-09-30
Hey folks welcome back for part two. I'll skip all pre-amble and just jump right into the next six teams. Anyone that missed our first part can find it here. In it, we covered players like Chychrun, Shattenkirk, Markstrom, and Coyle.
Chicago Black Hawks
BUY: Dylan Strome (C) $3M, 1 year
This is admittedly a long-term play. You will get good to really good value this year on that $3M contract. There is the possibility Strome delivers 60 points in 2021-22. At 6-3 and 204 games played, we can apply 'big-man theory' here which means we are two full seasons from what should be his true coming out party. There remains untapped upside.
He's a restricted free agent at the end of the year and at age 24, the clock is ticking on bridge deals. The door seems open for Chicago to sign him on a five- to six-year deal with a really reasonable cap-hit. This is a buy and stash opportunity in dynasty pools.
SELL: Jonathan Toews (C) $10.5M, 2 years
I am not expecting Toews production to fall off a cliff over the next two years. He has really been an enigma over his career in nailing down his production over the years. He is such a complete player that his point totals fluctuate significantly year over year. He may give you 60 points, or he may give you 80.
In multi-cat leagues, he's not a big hitter, not known as a volume shooter so you rely on his production – unless you're in face-off pools. His value significantly increases in those pools. He has never fully been able to justify the enormous contract to owners. Turning 34, it's time to turn the page while there's still value in a return. $10.5M can go a long, long way in upgrading a roster. There are similar players available at half the cap hit, Bo Horvat, Nazem Kadri would be two players I would look at as replacements that will leave you ample salary to upgrade other roster spots as well. You won't get Horvat in return, expect a much smaller return value. The most valuable return for moving Toews will be the cap space it creates.
Colorado Avalanche
BUY: Cale Makar (D) $9M, 6 years
There are some owners that are just scared off big cap hits. They want every contract to be a value contract. This can be especially true with defencemen. Very few defencemen can justify a $9M cap hit in fantasy circles. Cale Makar is one of them. Six years feeding Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, yes please.
He was a point-per-game player last year, albeit a shortened season (44 points in 44 games). Even if we account for regression in the second half of a full season due to wear and tear he would have still pushed 70-points. The sky is the limit with Makar. In Erik Karlsson's glory days folks tinkered with the idea he could hit 90 points. I believe Makar will see the 90-point mark at some point in this contract. After this season, there will be panel discussions asking if Makar can ever hit 100-points in a season.
With $9M defencemen becoming the norm, this is the one you want to own. Period.
SELL: Erik Johnson (D) $6M, 2 years
I'm not sure many own Johnson anymore, with the injuries over the past couple seasons and all. There really aren't bad contract on this roster. He gives really good peripherals, but you can get as good for a third the cost across the league. Rather than unpack why Johnson is all but unownable, I'll cheat and throw in a second 'buy' – There's more value on Colorado to scoop!
BUY: Nazim Kadri © $4.5M, 1 year
This is a definite league specific 'buy'. He is a fabulous multi-cat option. He hits, shoots, fills the penalty box, puts up decent points. Kadri is going to be sought after come free agency next summer. With the playoff suspensions looming over his head (3 in 4 years) I expect this to lower his cap hit on his upcoming contract. Good news for those looking for value.
He is still a 25-goal, 25-assist threat with potential for more. Rolling in at $4.5M he screams value. I would be surprised if his next contract exceeds $6M. This should allow him to maintain really solid value for leagues counting peripherals. If he finds a home that places him on the first power play there should be some added value in 2022-23.
Columbus Blue Jackets
BUY: Boone Jenner (C) $3.75M, 5 years
The first year John Tortorella arrived in Columbus Jenner had a career year with 49 points. Since then, his stats have declined steadily. In two of the last three years his offensive zone starts were as low as 35%. Tortorella, to the detriment of fantasy owners, trusted Jenner completely defensively.
With a new coach, I suspect Jenner will receive a new lease on life. A return to being a 45-point threat with 200 shots and 200 hits is a real possibility. With a very palatable cap hit of $3.75M until 2026-27 you really can't go wrong even if he does remain a 35-point forward. Put me in the bullish category for Jenner this season.
SELL: Zach Werenski (D) $9.58M, 8 years
This is an enormous price tag on a player that has yet to hit 50 points and offers next to no peripherals. With the summer additions of Jake Bean and Adam Boqvist it gives an appearance that management doesn't see Werenski as that true power-play quarterback.
Don't get me wrong, he's a great real-life defenceman. That, however, means nothing in our world. The support cast isn't there in Columbus like it is in Tampa Bay or Colorado to elevate an elite defenceman to 70-plus point seasons. He doesn't have that Roman Josi skill set either where he can push the play down the other team's throat, creating a 70-point season seemingly on his own either.
In a points-only pool, you can begrudgingly hold him if you have a really solid entry level contract to help balance this meatball of a contract. In multi-cat leagues, I pray for a white-hot streak so I can burn up the trade block.
Dallas Stars:
BUY: Roope Hintz (LW) $3.15m, 2 years
Was there any other choice? In the absence of Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov, Hintz went off. He battled injuries throughout the season and still ended up with 43-points in 41 games. This kind of breakout wasn't expected for another two years.
The hope was he would become a strong top-six player. Not only has he delivered early on that, he delivered, while injured, a first line type of season. How Dallas distributes ice time, especially on the power play with a healthy Seguin, Radulov, Jamie Benn, along with a blossoming Jason Robertson will go along way in determining what Hintz's ceiling will be.
All that said, he seems a lock to push at least a 65-point pace, with an upside above point per game. At $3.15M this is a platinum contract to own this year and next.
SELL: Joe Pavelski (RW) $7M, 1 year
Yes, Pavelski. At 37, the odds of repeating last year will be difficult. His value is still high from last years surprise season. There's a small window to cash in on what he delivered last year. Players at this age, performing at 60-point levels are on borrowed time (outside of someone like Sidney Crosby, but Pavelski isn't Crosby).
He might put up a 55- to 60-point year, so be it. There comes a point when you need to cut ties with a player and get a return while you can. This is that time.
The only exception here would be if you are a bona-fide contender for your league title. If Pavelski performs well, I hold. Any other team situation, I'd sell.
Detroit Red Wings
BUY: Tyler Bertuzzi (RW) $4.75m, 2 years
With seven points in his first nine games, five goals includde, Bertuzzi came out of the gate on fire. Sitting on the cusp of his breakout threshold he was set to deliver a career year. And then disaster struck. His season ended abruptly.
Fast forward a year and he still sits at his breakout threshold, 208 games. Now, the Red Wings will still be hard pressed to score a lot of goals. The rebuild is a long, slow process and they are just now seeing some of those early draft picks filter into their line up and start to produce.
Bertuzzi should cruise past 50-points this year. For whatever reason 58 sits stuck in my head. I'm no genie but if he can land close to that everyone should be pleased. There is potential for more it's just, who not named Dylan Larkin will be able to help him?
SELL: Nick Leddy (D) $5M, 1 year
To be honest, I chose Leddy almost by default. There aren't a lot of bad contracts on this roster. In fact, there are only four Red Wings making $5M or more this season. Steve Yzerman is priming everything for the future.
Leddy's season really depends whether he gets the power play reigns or not. If he does, there's a chance he can squeak out a 40-point year. Which makes this a poor 'sell' option. If he is traded at the deadline (I assume he will) then his value is going to drop when it matters most – playoffs. He'll become a depth option for a playoff team and sink into their depth charts.
Points pools, he could be a decent depth option and you can cross out this sell. Multi-cat leagues, beyond assists and power play points he leaves your peripheral cupboards barren.
Edmonton Oilers
BUY: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C, LW), $5.125M, 8 years
He can be frustrating to own because at times he seems like an enigma on the ice. He disappears for stretches, skates the perimeter and just pecks at the edges. And then something will change, he'll elevate his game and look like an elite player in the league. He has annual 70-plus point potential.
It is rare to see a player take so much less then he would have received on the open market. Had he fished around free agency I could see him sign at $7M. For the next several years Nugent-Hopkins is a plug and play. In a bad season he will still outperform this cap hit.
This is an easy buy.
SELL: Duncan Keith (D) $5.538M, 2 years
Don't take this to mean I think Keith is washed up as a player. I'm in the camp that thinks in real life this is a really good signing for the Oilers – in real life. With Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie, his offensive role will be diminished. Opportunities on the power play will be hard to come by. His offensive stats won't make it worth while to own.
In multi-cat leagues, this would be a very expensive own to help fill out your block category. Unless you're in a 20-plus team league this is an easy sell.
That's all for this week, thanks for reading. come back next week for part III.
(all stats from frozen tools, all salary cap information from capfriendly.com)
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