Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Anyone looking for a guy that, at the end of the season, we’re all like “ah, should have seen that one coming?” How about Travis Konecny? He averaged 26 goals, 56 points, 41 PIMs, 179 shots, and 81 hits per 82 games for three seasons before taking a step back in 2021. Things went all kinds of wrong for the Flyers but they had a relatively full offseason and he’s on the top line with Couturier early in camp. Would anyone really be shocked if he broke out for a 30-goal, 100-hit season as he hits the age of 24? He is also going quite late in drafts but I have him roughly as valuable as a top-100 player. (sep30)

2. I don’t usually waver from the opinions of team beat writers, who are a lot more familiar with their respective teams than I am. But I will say this: Although it’s entirely possible that Jeremy Swayman will start the first game of the season over Linus Ullmark, remember to follow the money.

Ullmark was signed for four seasons at $5 million per, while Swayman has two more seasons on his entry-level contract. It’s a similar situation to Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight in Florida. In single-season leagues, the goalie to draft higher is still the one with the contract. Even if Swayman takes the reins early, I’m still confident that the Bruins won’t leave a newly minted $5 million per season investment on the bench while throwing their younger goalie to the wolves so quickly. (oct2)

3. Could the addition of Dougie Hamilton really improve New Jersey’s offense as a whole? It’s only the preseason, but the Devils dropped seven goals on the Rangers on Friday nights. In his preseason debut, Hamilton recorded two assists while taking five shots on goal. Fun fact: No Devils player took more shots on goal than Hamilton last season (180), and it wasn’t particularly close. Jack Hughes was the closest at 142. The move to New Jersey won’t necessarily help Hamilton’s fantasy value, but expect Hamilton to help the New Jersey offense considerably. (oct2)

4. Brady Tkachuk has an ADP of 25 on Yahoo, and I’ve seen him go much higher than that in drafts. I know his scoring doesn’t keep up when compared to other similarly-drafted options, but he’s being drafted this high because of his dominance in two other categories (SOG, Hits). If you draft him, you’ll want to make sure you have enough scoring from your other high picks. Putting off goalies until later helps with that, as does choosing forwards with my first four picks. (oct1)

5. Bad news for those hoping for a breakout season from Jakub Vrana. The Wings winger is expected to miss at least four months, as he will undergo shoulder surgery. After being acquired from Washington at the trade deadline, Vrana impressed with his new club, scoring eight goals and 11 points in 11 games. Vrana had been dealing with a shoulder issue that flared up within 10 minutes of his first training camp practice last Saturday.

Vrana was expected to play on the top line, so his injury immediately hurts the value of Dylan Larkin. In addition, the absence of Tyler Bertuzzi for road games in Canada should result in a further downgrade for Larkin. Prospects Lucas Raymond and Joe Veleno should now have slightly better odds of cracking the Wings’ opening-night lineup, as should veteran Bobby Ryan (who is on a PTO). If I had to guess, I’d pick Ryan here because he’s more of a known NHL quantity, while Raymond may need time to adjust to North America. Having said that, I’d also have to think Raymond is playing for the Wings at some point this season. Or he makes the team out of camp, but also spends time in the AHL.

Filip Zadina will (should?) make the Red Wings because he did so last season. He could also benefit from the Vrana injury in terms of power-play time. For what it’s worth, Zadina and Veleno were both used on the first-unit power play (along with Pius Suter and Robby Fabbri) in Thursday’s preseason game against Buffalo.

However the even-strength and power-play line combinations shake out, the Wings had the league’s second-worst offense last season (2.23 GF/GP). That offense doesn’t look like it will improve much with Vrana now on the shelf. This is shaping up to be another rebuilding year for the Wings. (oct1)

6. One of the lottery tickets I’m taking on the blue line this year is Shayne Gostisbehere. In 12-team leagues, he can be had in the last round as a flier and that’s fine. If he has to be dropped in two weeks, also fine. But Arizona has run some 3F/2D power plays before, and I believe he was much better in Philly last year than he gets credit for. There could be a sneaky 40-point season here, he just doesn’t bring much in peripherals. (sep30)

7. One guy being rarely drafted (on Yahoo) is Eeli Tolvanen. I should say, more specifically, he’s being drafted way down the list with the likes of Dadonov, Saad, and Olofsson. I will say, for this season, he has considerably more upside than all of them. Olofsson is an empty shooter who needs a lot of help he won’t get, and Saad doesn’t hit or provide PP production. Dadonov could get there but he needs some injury help and a lot of luck. Tolvanen, on the other hand, paced for over 20 goals and 40 points last year, putting up a whopping 78 hits in 40 games. If he can put up 20 goals, 50 points, 150 hits and 150 shots with some PP production, he’ll wildly out-produce anyone in that list. And there is upside beyond that with Viktor Arividsson gone. Tolvanen is one of my favourite winger fliers this season. (sep30)

8. I have Roope Hintz and Brayden Point as relatively the same value – between the 15^th and 20^th centres. People need to realize two things about Point: he hasn’t hit 2.5 shots per game in three straight seasons and has 78 hits in his last 201 regular season contests. A player that gives you 180 shots and 30 hits needs a lot of production to pay off a second- or third-round value. In 2019-20, when he was just shy of a point-per-game? The 17^th centre in fantasy, just inside the top-50 players. If Point puts up 90 points, he probably still isn’t a top-20 roto player. Hintz being able to put up more shots and over double his hits means a lot, even if 15 points separate them. (sep30)

9. Will Shane Pinto make the opening night roster – yay or nay. That is the big question in Ottawa, especially after his highlight-reel overtime goal in Sunday night’s exhibition win over Winnipeg. The Sens have the room for him, he looks NHL ready, and after the Logan Brown for Zach Sanford deal, there is even more room at the centre position for him to slot in as one of the top-nine options (along with Josh Norris and Colin White – or Chris Tierney if White plays wing).

His DobberProspects profile lists him as: “A strong center who works hard and does things the right way. Pinto’s skating needs some attention but the skills are there to be a strong pivot who can contribute as a net front presence on the power play”. The skating looks to be much improved of late, and his PNHLe just keeps rising. He may be the long-term answer as the number-two centre behind Josh Norris, as Tim Stutzle looks more like a winger in the NHL. Pinto is one of those players to stash for immediate payoff in keeper/dynasty leagues as his stock should rise soon. He’s also worth a look at the end of deeper one-year drafts, as long as plus-minus isn’t something your league is counting. (sep29)

10. Just want to remind you that Kaapo Kakko is on a line with Artemi Panarin and that they are clicking so far. Get on board with Kakko this year or you're going to be too late. Ryan Strome along with Kakko are two guys to target after the top 100 picks in drafts; the plus-minus shouldn't even be a drag this year either. (sep29)

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IN THE SHOP:

With NHL camps now in full swing, updates to our Fantasy Guide will be fast and frequent – often to the tune of three times per day. So, be sure to re-download the Guide for the latest changes as you head toward fantasy draft day.

For my francophone readers who prefer to read their gold in their native tongue, we have a translated version of the Guide. You can order your French version here (and please share with any of your francophone pals).

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11. The Devils brought in Tomas Tatar, and he joins a bit of a hodge-podge of wingers that are battling to see who sticks with the top-two centres in Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. It’s the opposite problem from in Columbus, as the centres are the key to the NJ game plan, and they are both on all of the “ready to break out” lists that you’ll find leading up to the season. I like Janne Kuokkannen as a bit of an under-the-radar guy who looks like he should be able to grab a top-six role to go with some offensive upside that he hinted at last year. (sep29)

12. Columbus has Cole Sillinger pushing to make the team which could give them another dynamic centre (at least until Max Domi returns from injury). Columbus has the wingers to support some scoring for a rookie centre, so he is definitely one to watch in camp. As is Jack Roslovic if he ends up with some combination of Jakub Voracek, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Patrik Laine on his wings. (sep29)

The 2021 12^th overall pick has earned glowing reports from coaches and media alike, and he’s been lining up with Jakub Voracek quite often. Sillinger was over a PPG player as a 16-year-old in the WHL and blew the doors off the USHL last year. He is listed at 6’0″ and nearly 200 lbs, so it’s not as if he’s some tiny player that needs some time to grow. If he’s mentally ready now, maybe he’s good to go. I doubt he plays the full season but we never know. (sep30)

13. Jordan Kyrou is a guy I have been waiting years for a proper breakout and it looks like it could finally be here. He put up 35 points in 55 games last year, or a 52-point pace. That was on a brutally injured St. Louis team, too.

Last season, we saw the flashes of Kyrou’s breakout. The production, the high carry-in rate, the dangerous playmaking, it was all there. If he can get 17 minutes a night playing with Ryan O’Reilly/David Perron plus PP time? The breakout could be here, too. The PP time isn’t conjecture, either: he was skating with both the team’s PP units last week in practice as they look for a good fit for him. Just beware of his peripheral problem: he doesn’t hit. (sep28)

14. It seems people are staying low on Josh Anderson and I don’t get it. Particularly in formats where plus/minus isn’t a concern. He was a top-170 player on Yahoo last year and that was with a minus-10 rating. If we take out his plus/minus issue, he’s closer to a top-125 player. There may not be some things he does well – rack up assists – but he paced for 27 goals, 197 shots, and 219 hits. If he can go for 25 goals, 200 shots, and 200 hits, that’s probably worth picking earlier than 190^th overall. (sep28)

15. Jared McCann has been on the top line in Seattle camp with Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle. Quite honestly, I think that can be a great line. Each player is a genuine first-line talent and they are in a weak division. Over the last two years, he averaged 50 points/82 games with over two shots and one hit per game. That was all done playing with, largely, non-first-line talents and under 15 minutes a night. What does he do playing with Schwartz/Eberle and 18 minutes a night? I want to find out and I’ll spend a 12^th/13^th/14^th round pick to do so. (sep28)

16. My general issue with Joel Eriksson Ek is his role. He has often been used in a shutdown role with Marcus Foligno, and that’s not really great for fantasy. I did notice over the weekend though that he was working with what appeared to be the top PP unit i.e. with Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello et al. While I’d prefer he also played with them at 5-on-5, this is better than nothing. He had just two PPPs in 56 games last year. Had he been a PP regular, he would have finished closer to 40 points and we’re having a very different conversation right now. Because of the amount of hits and shots he can provide, he’s on my watch lists. (sep28)

17. In Boston, a lot of the buzz right now is about Jesper Froden. Never heard of him? Neither did I until three months ago. And even then, I didn’t think much of it because he’s 27. The Bruins signed a 27-year-old undrafted player from out of the SHL to a one-year contract back in June. He dominated the prospects tournament and the coaches were raving about his offense, but also his defense. He had 40 points in 52 SHL games last year, and then four in five games for Team Sweden at the Worlds. In the first practice for the main camp he actually skated with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron.

What helps his case is that he is a right shot right winger. Boston doesn’t have many of those. I don’t anticipate him making the team, as the Bruins are very deep. But I think he’s making enough of a mark that he sees some games. And if he can kick that door wide once it opens a crack – then who knows? I don’t recommend drafting, but just keep an eye on him. (sep27)

18. Mackenzie Blackwood is the lone New Jersey Devil that is not vaccinated, meaning he won’t be able to play games in Canada this year. He joins Josh Archibald, Tyler Bertuzzi, Bode Wilde, and Zac Rinaldo as the known NHL players and relevant affiliated players to not be vaccinated. Bertuzzi can be knocked a bit down your draft board, while the other skaters shouldn’t even be on your board to begin with.

Blackwood is a special case though, in that goalies don’t play every game to begin with, so of the nine games in Canada, he may have only played six of them anyways, and now the team can work around it so that he plays an extra four games in America, meaning his stock really shouldn’t be affected at all over the course of the season. For weekly leagues though it does become a bit of a scheduling note, especially since he likely won’t be eligible for any kind of IR designation so that you could pick up a replacement while the Devils play games in Canada. (sep29)

19. If you want to get a head start on your opponents this season, consider drafting Jeff Carter as a late-rounder. Remember that Sidney Crosby is expected to miss at least the first few games of the season, while Evgeni Malkin will be out for at least the first two months of the season.

After his career seemed destined to wither away in Los Angeles, Carter was a trade deadline pickup for the Penguins, who at the time were looking for a short-term replacement for Malkin. Carter promptly scored nine goals in 14 games while clicking on a line with Jared McCann. Carter also scored four goals in the Penguins’ six-game playoff series with the Islanders. Even though McCann is no longer a Penguin, Carter is in a good spot anyway, starting training camp centering Jake Guentzel and free agent signing Danton Heinen. I wouldn’t be as bullish on Carter once both Crosby and Malkin returns, but for now there’s a plum opportunity. (sep26)

20. According to Joel Quenneville, Sergei Bobrovsky has “got the net” and Spencer Knight will be “learning and observing.” That’s not to say Knight won’t start eventually, as Bobrovsky’s play will ultimately determine how much he starts. This announcement is hardly surprising, though, as we’ve tried to tell you all along to follow the money when trying to figure out who will start. Both goalies are worth rostering in fantasy, as the Panthers are in a strong position to earn plenty of wins. (sep26)

21. The Blues completed a minor deal last week, sending Zach Sanford to Ottawa for 2016 first-round pick Logan Brown and a conditional 2022 draft pick. The 6-6 Brown has scored one goal and nine points in 30 career NHL games, and will try to make a go of it in his hometown of St. Louis after not being able to secure a full-time NHL job with the Sens. Brown has also battled injuries throughout his career.

As for Sanford, I’m guessing he will battle for a middle-six spot with the Sens. At this point he’s a more proven option for Ottawa than Brown. The Senators already have plenty of younger players that will attempt to make a name for themselves this season. After a 42-point pace in 2019-20, Sanford fell to just 16 points in 52 games in 2020-21 (a 25-point pace). (sep26)

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Dobbernomics is open for registration. It’s a free game – and it’s my passion project. We are having one last season using this ‘Beta’ format. Next year this will (almost 100% take it to the bank) be on a sleek new platform with accompanying app, better navigation and more tools.

Back in 1998 and 1999 I fell in love with the Smallworld format. For football, baseball and hockey – I played it all. I loved the idea of adding and dropping players while trying to maximize their value. Pick up a guy at $5 (pretend money) and he goes on a three-game tear which makes other game-players pick him up. And that makes his value jump over those few days to, say, $5.50. I then drop him and then have an extra 50 cents to spend on the next guy I pick up. Yeah – your team value rises/falls based on the real ownership of the players. The idea is to not only have your team finish the season with the most points in your league (and/or the world), but also to have the highest team salary value. You start with $50 (pretend dollars) to spend.

Anyway, I loved Smallworld. But they couldn’t monetize this great game. So they sold it to RotoHog, who tried to monetize the game and that cost them users and the game was done by (I’m guessing) around 2004. I brought it back to life and it’s free. I lose money just hosting it, having the programmers set it up, putting my own time into it…because I love it. That’s the very definition of ‘passion project’. Give it a try!

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Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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