This will be my third season of trying to pin down the top 20 rookies and it is always much more difficult than it seems. I have over-reached on some 18-year-olds and just flat missed on some great rookies the past two seasons. The flip side is that I did have Pius Suter #17, Jason Robertson #12 last season. I can also say that I had Kirill Kaprizov as #1, but then who didn't?

Dobber has his own Top 50 rookies list in the Fantasy Guide, and Hadi Kalakeche also lists his Calder Trophy candidates there. Once again, I thought I would take a crack at it again myself.

The aspects I tend to focus on are ice time, player ceiling and opportunity. Even though I might like a rookie, if all they're facing is 8-10 minutes per game on the 4th line, then it's going to be difficult for them to produce at a level to be included here. I'd rather take a chance on a relatively unknown rookie that might get top-six minutes and potential power-play time. This is a very deep rookie class this season so there are about 40-50 rookies that could be included here.

Good examples of some exclusions are Robin Salo, Bowen Byram, Scott Perunovich, Alex Turcotte, Cam York, Peyton Krebs and Quinton Byfield. For any of these players to get minutes, let alone top minutes in the NHL, a few players would need to go down with injuries combined with these players being at the top of their games and right now it just seems unlikely.

Here is part one of my top 20:

#20 – Vasily Podkolzin (F) – Vancouver

There were and are some legitimate concerns about the offensive upside of the 10th overall pick in 2019. Podkolzin has had a fairly quiet pre-season for the Canucks, but he is still pencilled into their starting lineup as his defensive positioning and work ethic are NHL ready. The Canucks will give him every chance to succeed and with Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes re-signing, Podkolzin should settle down the lineup as a 3rd or 4th line winger to begin his career. I would pencil him in for 10-15 goals and 25-30 points this year.

#19 – Arttu Ruotsalainen (F) – Buffalo

Ruotsalainen is 23 years old and is in the last year of his entry-level contract with Buffalo. He's only 5'9" and 185 lbs but has scored 52 goals in his last 122 games with Ilves in the Finnish Liiga. He played 17 games with the Sabres last season and had five goals and six points after posting 13 points in 13 AHL games. This is a bit of a risky pick, in that he might be sent to the AHL to start as he doesn't need to clear waivers. The other side to the coin is that he also might get some top-line minutes and power-play time in the NHL to start. If he sticks he could get 15-20 goals and 30-35 points.

#18 – Moritz Seider (D) – Detroit

Seider was a bit of a surprise when Detroit took him 6th overall in 2019, but that pick looks better and better each game he plays. As an 18-year-old in 2019-20, Seider had 22 points in 49 AHL games. Last year had him play with Rogle BK of the SHL and he had an excellent year with 28 points in 41 games. Now at only 20-years of age, he is ready for the NHL this year and shouldn't disappoint. He will displace Filip Hronek sooner than later as the quarterback on the Red Wings top PP unit but maybe not this year. We can still expect some PP2 minutes and 20-22 minutes per game for Seider this year and 25-35 points.

#17 – Jamie Drysdale (D) – Anaheim

The 6th overall pick in 2020, Drysdale won't turn 20 until April of 2022. What will make Drysdale attractive in pools is his point production but it should be tempered this season as most of his points will need to be on the power play. The Ducks man advantage was barely above par last season at 4.8 percent, so should be improved this year with Drysdale and Zegras on it all year. I'd expect 15-20 PP points with perhaps 10-15 at even strength as Drysdale should be sheltered fairly heavily at 15-17 minutes per game. At the end of the day, 25-35 points will be a fine year for the 19-year-old.

#16 – Cole Perfetti (F) – Winnipeg

The consensus after the 2019 entry draft was that Winnipeg got great value with Perfetti at 10th overall. He won't turn 20 until New Year's Day 2022, but he appears to be ready for a regular role this year with the Jets. With Pierre-Luc Dubois moving to center ice and Paul Stastny still in the mix, he will more than likely begin on the wing. The AHL numbers might have been a little inflated last year, but Perfetti had 26 points in 32 games. If he gets a regular role, he could see 30-35 points.

#15 – Shane Pinto (F) – Ottawa

Pinto will be 21-years old in November and was the 32nd overall pick in the 2019 draft. He turned pro after leaving the University of North Dakota at the end of their season last year and managed seven points in 12 games with the Senators. He should start the year on the third line but in Ottawa, there is Colin White or Chris Tierney ahead of him as the pencilled-in second-line center. Depending on where Pinto ends up in the lineup he could produce 15-20 goals and 30-35 points.

#14 – Jonathan Dahlen (F) – San Jose

Dahlen is no stranger to Vancouver Canucks fans as he was linemates of Elias Pettersson in 2016-17 with Timra in the Swedish Allsvenskan league. After Pettersson moved to Vaxjo of the SHL the next season Dahlen stayed in Timra and was crucial to helping them get promoted to the SHL for the 2018-19 season.

Dahlen left Sweden and came to the AHL for that year and struggled with 14 goals and 33 points in 57 games and he was dealt from Vancouver to San Jose. After heading back to Timra for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 season where they were back in the Allsvenskan league he had 61 goals and 148 points in 96 games.

The 23-year old is back for this season on a one-way contract that should see him up with San Jose for the year. With the Evander Kane status up in the air, Dahlen might see opportunity on the first line and power-play time as well. He could get 15-20 goals and 35-40 points but has the skill for more. His only caveat is that his skating is average at best for the NHL.

#13 – Alex Newhook (F) – Colorado

Newhook was the 16th overall pick in 2019 and is 20-years old. He looks pencilled in as the third-line center on a very good Avalanche team. He spent two years at Boston College before turning pro and had 58 points in 46 games. He played six games with the Avalanche and had three points with eight more games in the playoffs with two points. He will need to be patient to get more than 12-14 minutes of ice time this season, but he might see some PP2 time. He could be good for 30-40 points but his ceiling is a little higher if he gets more ice time.

#12 – Kaapo Kahkonen – (G) – Minnesota

Kahkonen is the first goalie we have on this list. He had a bit of an up and down year last year with the Wild in his 24 games and finished up with 16 wins in 24 games with a 90.2 save percentage and a minus 4.34 GSAA. He did have a nine-game stretch where he had eight wins and a 1.78 GAA with a 93.4 save percentage. He needs to be more consistent to get 35-40 starts this year as Cam Talbot is likely to start 50-55 games if not. The potential problem with Talbot is that he hasn't played more than 35 games since 2017-18 and the team might need to fall back to Kahkonen. Conservatively I think we can pencil in Kahkonen for 30 starts and around 18 wins.

#11 – Nils Lundkvist (D) – NY Rangers

Lundkvist was selected by the Rangers 28th overall in 2018 and he might prove to be a very good pick for that slot. The 21-year-old was the SHL defenseman of the year for the 2020-21 season with Lulea where he had 14 goals and 32 points in 52 games. As a right-shot defender, Lundkvist will begin his NHL career behind Adam Fox and Jacob Trouba and will more than likely only see 16-18 minutes per night, but he could see some PP2 time. He could see 25-35 points next year if everything goes well for him.

Next week, we will focus on the top ten where we have three goalies.

Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.