Eastern Edge: Predicting Fantasy MVPs like Couturier and Bjorkstrand

Brennan Des

2021-10-05

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll predict each team's fantasy MVP for the 2021-2022 campaign. When I think about value in fantasy hockey, I think about players who outperform expectations. As a result, this isn't a list of each team's best or most productive player. Rather, it's a list of players whose contributions should significantly outweigh their acquisition cost this year.

Boston BruinsJeremy Swayman  

Since he's signed to a bigger contract and has more NHL experience than 22-year-old Jeremy Swayman, Linus Ullmark is expected to be Boston's starting netminder this year. However, after posting an impressive 7-3-0 record, 1.50 GAA and .945 save percentage down the stretch last season, Swayman is now putting together a strong performance in training camp and providing stiff competition for Ullmark. In recent years, we've seen the Bruins opt for a 1A/1B strategy in net, giving Boston's back-up goaltender more starts than your typical number two. That should hold true again this year, as none of Boston's current options in net can be considered a bonafide number-one starter. I expect Swayman will post solid numbers while seeing a significant workload this season, say 35-40 starts? As an added bonus, he has the potential to steal the starting gig from Ullmark, who only has 117 games of NHL experience and has dealt with a number of significant injuries in recent years.

Buffalo SabresJeff Skinner

A once-prolific goal scorer who lost confidence in recent years due to unfavourable deployment from a coach who didn't trust him. With a new coach in town, I think Skinner has potential to flirt with the 25-goal mark and provide some under-the-radar fantasy value in deep leagues. 

Carolina HurricanesTeuvo Teravainen

Although he was hindered by COVID-19 and a concussion last season, Teravainen still scored at a respectable 59-point pace. He broke out with 64 points during the 2017-2018 campaign and followed that up with a 76-point pace in each of his next two seasons. Given his great offensive potential, I'm surprised his current ADP is 138. Carolina may have some up-and-coming talent on the wing, but I think Teravainen will continue to see a prominent role at even-strength and on the power-play next year, leading to another year of solid production.

Columbus Blue Jackets Oliver Bjorkstrand

The 26-year-old winger has scored at a 60-point pace in each of his past two seasons but is currently being drafted outside the top-150 in your average Yahoo league. Some may be unenthusiastic because he won't see exposure to offensive studs like Jakub Voracek and Patrik Laine, but Bjorkstrand doesn't rely on others to produce – he's a great two-way player who drives his own offense. Others may be wary of Bjorkstrand's fantasy outlook because he isn't expected to play a major role on the man advantage. However, a lack of power-play production didn't stop him from tallying impressive point totals in recent years. I see him as a late-round steal that will be a staple of most championship-winning rosters.

Detroit Red Wings – Dylan Larkin   

Larkin's fantasy value has dropped in recent weeks as we learned that his projected linemates – Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana – are expected to miss significant time due to vaccine refusal and shoulder surgery, respectively. The downgrade in linemates is concerning, but Larkin has shown great offensive potential in recent years and I'm willing to take a chance on him this season. He posted a 60-point pace for three-straight seasons before a down-year in 2021. As a result of the recent news about his linemates, he's going undrafted in many leagues and has a late ADP of 179 when he is selected. He doesn't have any competition for ice time, and I think he can flirt with a 60-point pace again while seeing major minutes at even-strength and on the power-play. Filip Hronek would have been my pick for Detroit's fantasy MVP this year, but I'm slightly concerned about the internal competition he'll face from Nick Leddy and Moritz Seider.

Florida Panthers Sergei Bobrovsky

After two terrible years in Florida, I can't believe I'm projecting Bob to be the team's fantasy MVP this year but please hear me out for a second. Bobrovsky will see a high volume of starts this season because he has an astronomical cap hit of $10 million and the Panthers have to get some return on that investment. Florida has a really good roster this year, which should help Bob rack up the wins and register decent numbers. By no means am I confident that Bobrovsky will outplay his rookie counterpart Spencer Knight, but as a result of that massive contract, he'll get more opportunity than he probably should. I'd say there's a good chance he outperforms his current ADP of 117.

Montreal CanadiensJonathan Drouin

In the past, we've seen injuries prevent players from performing to their full potential. Getting the appropriate treatment for an injury often helps a player return to top form. I personally think that mental illnesses can be equated to physical injuries in the sense that both conditions prevent us from performing to our full potential. Jonathan Drouin had been struggling with anxiety and insomnia problems for many years and it sounds like the leave of absence he took last year finally gave him a chance to properly address those issues. With a greater ability to focus on his game, I think Drouin will be able to display his elite talent on a more consistent basis this year.

New Jersey DevilsTomas Tatar  

For some reason, it seems Tatar's fantasy value has taken a nosedive this year as he isn't rostered in the majority of Yahoo leagues. I guess his reputation took a hit because he was frequently scratched during Montreal's run to the Stanley Cup Final last year? I'm not sure why so much stock would be placed into a questionable coaching decision, but Tatar was excellent for the vast majority of his three years as a Canadien. Some may be concerned because he'll be separated from usual linemates Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher, whom he thrived beside in Montreal. However, Tatar will still see exposure to plenty of good players in New Jersey – a list headlined by Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton. If you need a 60-point player in the late rounds of your draft – or maybe even on the waiver wire – Tatar is your guy. 

New York IslandersRyan Pulock   

The 26-year-old defenseman is coming off a down-year that saw him score at a 25-point pace. The reduced output is partially explained by a career-low shooting percentage of 1.7-percent – or about one-third of his usual five to six-percent success rate. I'm betting he can return to form and get closer to the 40-point pace he hovered around in each of the three seasons leading into 2021. While the extra offense would be an added bonus, Pulock is incredibly valuable in multicategory leagues as he makes significant contributions to the blocks, hits and shots categories.

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New York RangersRyan Strome  

From a fantasy perspective, there are a few different groups of players in New York. There are the big names that will be drafted early on in all leagues. They include Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin. You also have the young guns who are being taken late, but they're still developing and may not get enough opportunity to have a huge impact this year. That group includes the likes of Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Filip Chytil and K'Andre Miller. One player that doesn't really fit into either group is Ryan Strome. Now Strome hasn't done enough to be considered a star in his own right, but he's virtually guaranteed a prominent role in New York's top-six, with exposure to a couple of high-end wingers. Strome has paced for 69 and 72 points in his two seasons with the Rangers and is primed to score at a similar rate this year. He shouldn't have too much outperforming his ADP of 137.

Ottawa SenatorsThomas Chabot  

A talented young defenseman who's bound to see a high volume of even-strength minutes and a prominent role on the power play. A talented young defenseman who can put up a fair number of shots, hits and blocks while flirting with a 60-point pace. A talented young defenseman at an ADP of 120? Don't mind if I do. Some will say that the quality of his supporting cast limits his offensive potential, but I think that Ottawa has enough capable young talent that the points will come for Chabot – as they have in recent years.

Philadelphia FlyersSean Couturier

Since Philly's defensive corps saw a lot of turnover during the offseason, a number of different defensemen have the potential to be fantasy relevant this year. Of course, not all of them are going to be relevant, but since so many of them have potential, it's no surprise that Ryan Ellis, Ivan Provorov, Rasmus Ristolainen and Keith Yandle are all being drafted in most fantasy leagues. This focus on defenseman has taken away from reliable forwards like Sean Couturier and Claude Giroux, who are slipping in most fantasy drafts. Considering Couturier's ADP is currently 143, I think you'll be pleasantly 'surprised' when he inevitably posts a 70-point pace for the fifth-straight season.

Pittsburgh Penguins Kasperi Kapanen

In the past, there's often been fantasy-related hype surrounding Pittsburgh's wingers, simply because of the exposure they'd get to superstar centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. That hype seems to be attenuated this year, as both Crosby and Malkin are expected to miss the start of the season due to injuries. While a guy like Jake Guentzel has established himself as a star in his own right and is accordingly being drafted early on in fantasy leagues. Pittsburgh's other wingers – namely Kasperi Kapanen and Bryan Rust – aren't quite getting the respect they deserve. Granted, Kapanen doesn't quite have the track record to be a proven commodity that we should trust. However, he scored at a 62-point pace in his first year with the Penguins last season and has been excellent during preseason action. I don't think we've seen the best of Kapanen just yet and increased opportunity this year could lead to career-high point totals.

Tampa Bay LightningAlex Killorn

Expectations are high for Tampa Bay's superstars because they're being drafted early on in most fantasy leagues. Such an expensive cost comes with proportionally high expectations, meaning there isn't much room for the likes of Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos to outperform their lofty acquisition costs. I had a hard time identifying members of Tampa's supporting cast that were undervalued and could also provide significant fantasy impact this year. Mikhail Sergachev is appropriately valued with an ADP of 121, while Ondrej Palat is overvalued at an ADP of 75. Ultimately, I decided that Alex Killorn seems like a safe bet to provide value this year because he's also floating under-the-radar in most fantasy drafts, but he should see a significant role in the top-six this year.

Toronto Maple LeafsNick Ritchie

The Leafs have taken on a number of low-risk/high-reward players through professional tryouts and free-agent signings. From that list of players, they have the most invested in Nick Ritchie, who's signed for two years at an AAV of $2.5 million. Given Toronto's cap situation, they have to put every penny to good use. As a result, Ritchie should be placed in a position to succeed, presumably alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line. I don't think he'll manage the same level of offense that Zach Hyman produced in that role last season, but I expect he'll put up a high volume of hits to supplement a decent point total.

Washington CapitalsAnthony Mantha

Nicklas Backstrom is currently rehabbing from a hip injury and there's no timetable for his return. He hasn't been skating recently and it seems fair to assume he'll miss some time to start the season. With Backstrom sidelined, there's an open spot on Washington's top power-play and it seems Anthony Mantha is best suited to fill the opening. Mantha had a down year last season but paced for 72 points and 59 points in the two seasons leading into 2021. He'll be a prominent piece of Washington's top-six this year and a spot on the top PP unit early on could help him produce at a high level this year. He can definitely flirt with the 60-point mark – which is great production for a player currently being drafted outside the top-150.

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