We are coming up to the final weekend before the start of the season. We have gotten a chance to glimpse some NHL-ish action through an extended week of preseason games with a few more on the docket. Many fantasy leagues have completed their drafts so we have some idea of where managers are valuing players going into the season. For this week we are going to focus on the biggest changes between the end of 2020-21 season and the beginning of the 2021-22 season.

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: The Times, They are A-Changing

Our data sources for this comparison are the average draft positions (ADPs) generated by Yahoo and the Top 300 Skater Rankings from Dobber for the end of last season (for the most current Top 300 Selection take a look at this article, or run the report for 2021-22 Exhibition). These are not perfect comparison sources as the Yahoo ADPs encompass a wide variety of league formats, and the Dobber ranking report is predominantly focused on points and considers some level of future performance, but it does serve to highlight some trends and some interesting player discussions.

To create the comparison tables I ran the Top 300 report from Dobber and exported it to utilize the ranking. I also exported the ADPs from Yahoo (which also includes ownership numbers), but converted it to a player rank, rather than using the straight draft position. That means Leon Draisaitl will show up as a "2" rather than a "2.4", as he had the second highest ADP.

For our first results, we are going to take a look at players who have been drafted significantly later than their Dobber ranking.

Trevor Zegras, as a rookie is clearly valued as a late round flyer in most Yahoo leagues. That is likely due to the fact that the majority of these leagues are probably one year, redraft leagues and the value of almost any rookie is capped. Plus any skater in Anaheim is a bit of a concern going into 21-22. The Top 300 ranking of 82 is clearly aligned with his prospect value, where Dobber Prospects is currently projecting him as a top line talent.

On the flip side we have a number of players who are being drafted well ahead of their Top 300 ranking.

…and they are all D. This really shouldn't be a surprise as the Top 300 Rankings are predominantly focused on point production and don't account for position eligibility. These ADPs are clearly taking into account the fact that rosters need a certain number of D, and potentially value things like blocks. If we filter a bit then we can focus on the forwards.

The above group almost entirely consists of our elder statesmen. Our Top 300 ranking is clearly taking into account that T.J. Oshie (34), Craig Smith (32), Kyle Palmieri (30), and Joe Pavelski (37) all have their best years behind them. Managers though are definitely willing to give them all one more shot. Robby Fabbri at 25 is the one exception here. Dobber's Top 300 rank doesn't like him any better in October than the end of last season, but drafters are picking him up well ahead of that ranking. He had spurts of relevance in 2020-21, but ended the season with only a 49-point pace – and it took a lot of favorable percentages to get there. He would need to see some significant increase in deployment to justify the draft position here and with Jakub Vrana out for several months for a shoulder surgery, that may be the bet managers are making here.

In more of a 'just for fun' vein here is a list of players drafted almost exactly at their Top 300 Skater Rank.

I also wanted to check in on a few names that have been big question marks this off season and see where managers are taking them.

Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and Brady Tkachuk are in the contract holdout group, with Hughes and Pettersson now being resolved. It looks like Hughes and Pettersson were hardly impacted here likely as there was a fair amount of confidence in both their personal skills and that there would be a deal in place. Brady Tkachuk is being drafted a fair amount above his rank. That is not surprising given that he contributes a ton of hits and shots, which can be very valuable across different league formats, though aren't necessarily considered in the 300-skater ranking. I might have maybe expected that difference to be even bigger (closer to what we saw for those defensemen), but he only had so far he could go above the 85th Top 300 rank. That 23rd rank though doesn't appear to be impacted too much by the contract talks.

Evander Kane's rank here is surprising. He is being drafted exactly like we would expect in a league that focuses on points. On the one had he contributes a lot more than that (hits, shots etc.) so we might have expected him to be drafted higher, but there is a ton of concern about his off season/off ice issues which may mean he plays significantly fewer games this season. Even with the potential multi-cat benefit I am surprised his draft position is not significantly lower, folks seem to be willing to take the chance one him (or he is being autopicked a lot).  The same can be said for Jack Eichel. He is being drafted as the 65th player off the board when he might not suit up at all this year.

Finally, I wanted to turn to a few players who were not ranked at all in the top 300 at the end of last season.