Ramblings: Resurgent Sharks – Karlsson, Meier; Hot Holtby and Hyman (Oct 23)

Ian Gooding

2021-10-23

Sidney Crosby might have to wait a while longer to make his season debut. He will not be ready for Saturday's game and there is still no set return date.  With Jeff Carter still in COVID protocol and also out for Saturday, Evan Rodrigues is now the first-line center for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Rodrigues skated between Jake Guentzel and Kasperi Kapanen during Friday's practice. Rodrigues appears to be a cheap fill-in option for Saturday's busy schedule if you need one. Interesting times.

Also with the Penguins, Tristan Jarry practiced following a false positive COVID test. Check Goalie Post to find out whether he or Casey DeSmith starts on Saturday against the Leafs. Did you know that you can receive email notifications from Goalie Post if you don't want to keep checking the site throughout the day?

The Alex Barre-Boulet era for the Kraken has ended after just two games. In need of a skilled forward now that Nikita Kucherov will be out for a while, the Lightning have reclaimed Barre-Boulet. This time I would imagine that he receives more of a run than the 15 games he saw last season. At a minimum he should receive third-line and second-unit power-play minutes, with the possibility for more. Those in deep leagues could consider a speculative add, although there are no guarantees that ABB will be an impact player this season in spite of the need for skilled and depth forwards in Tampa Bay.

We all know that Erik Karlsson is no longer the elite defenseman that he was during his days in Ottawa. Injuries and now even age have resulted in a decline from a point-per-game back in 2015-16 to not even a half point per game in 2020-21. Yet with six points in his first four games, is Karlsson a potential bounce-back candidate? I would say don't bet on him returning to the top tier of fantasy blueliners. However, Karlsson still has the offensive upside to outperform the 150 ADP that he has averaged between Yahoo and Fantrax.

The Sharks have won their first four games, which probably exceeds the expectations you had for them entering the season. Karlsson's success will depend on a few of the players around him continuing the turnaround after some subpar seasons – players such as Timo Meier, Logan Couture, and Brent Burns.

Remaining injury-free will also be a challenge for Band-Aid Boy Trainee Karlsson. Although he missed only four games last season, Karlsson had missed a minimum of 14 games over his two previous seasons in San Jose. If he has truly put his injuries from the past few seasons behind him, then he could provide a better return on the $11.5 million per season that the Sharks have invested in him. Unlike last season where he was a fringe player for one of my teams, Karlsson is worth starting in all leagues with at least three designated defense slots.

Speaking of Meier, he is another Shark who seems to be exceeding expectations so far. With an ADP even lower than that of Karlsson, Meier has also scored seven points in four games, with points in every single game. He has also boosted his multicategory value with an average of 5 SOG/GP and 2.5 HITS/GP. A move to the first-unit power play this season should also add to his value going forward. By the way, I drafted Meier with the 215th pick in one of my leagues. Those late-round picks that far surpass expectations are the ones that help you win your league.  

Meier's point production has fallen in two consecutive seasons from 0.85 PTS/GP in 2018-19 to 0.57 PTS/GP last season, and with that so has his fantasy value. Yet keep in mind that he's only 25, and the Sharks will need to lean on him even more scoring-wise with Evander Kane suspended and possibly never returning to San Jose. He was drafted in only 12 percent of Yahoo leagues, and he is still available in just under half of Yahoo leagues.

Logan Couture filled the statsheet on Friday (2 G, 1 A, +4, 6 SOG). He has fallen down the rankings similar to Karlsson and Meier the past couple seasons, but he is also tied with Meier for the team scoring lead with seven points.

Jonathan Dahlen scored again, giving him three goals in four games. William Eklund is receiving a lot of attention for making the Sharks as a 19-year-old, but the 23-year-old Dahlen is getting a look on the Meier/Couture scoring line. Dahlen is in his third organization, having being drafted by the Senators and later acquired by the Canucks for Alex Burrows. Dahlen did not look AHL-ready in 2018-19 and was not happy with the Canucks organization, so the Canucks traded him for lower-upside Linus Karlsson. Dahlen then went back to Sweden and posted two strong seasons in HockeyAllsvenskan, resulting in a much-improved player in his return to North America. View his Dobber Prospects profile for more.

It wasn't a question of if, but when. The Buffalo Sabres were finally handed their first loss of the season, a 4-1 defeat at the hands of former Sabre Linus Ullmark and the Bruins. This was Ullmark's first start (and win) of the season following two consecutive Jeremy Swayman starts.

Was this a great save, or was Ullmark's back leg in the right place at the right time?

Charlie Coyle led the Bruins' attack, scoring a goal and adding two assists. With David Krejci retired from the NHL, Coyle is now in a position to be the Bruins' regular second-line center beside Taylor Hall. Unless he is moved off that line, expect Coyle to improve on his 0.31 PTS/GP (16 PTS in 51 GP) from last season.

The Stars' signing of Braden Holtby was a surprise, considering that they already have three other goalies. Their decision to start Holtby in their first game was also a surprise, considering he was a backup in Vancouver by the time last season ended, and considering that Anton Khudobin led them to the Stanley Cup Final in the 2020 playoff bubble. Holtby's strong start has been yet another surprise, but will it last?

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Holtby turned in another impressive goaltending performance on Friday, stopping 43 of 45 shots he faced in a 3-2 overtime win over the Kings. Holtby now has wins in each of his last two games, quality starts in each of his last three games, and no more than two goals allowed in each of his four games. The defensive structure in Dallas is considerably better than what was in front of him in Vancouver, so there's an improvement in his value right there.

As for whether I would recommend picking him up over whichever goalie you wish to drop, it would depend on the goalie. An established starter on a half-decent NHL team? Probably not, because I'm not sure Holtby will be the Dallas starter all season. I typically like to let my team settle in for a few weeks before making any major changes, particularly if I've used a high- or mid-round pick on a goalie. As well, Holtby's numbers over the past few seasons don't inspire a whole lot of confidence long-term. But if you've got room and the opportunity cost is low, feel free to add the hot hand here.

Miro Heiskanen scored the game-tying goal and added two assists in this game in 29 minutes of icetime. I'm usually not big on Heiskanen in fantasy leagues, but I really like the quality of his game in real life. He's also off to a fast start with six points in five games. As long as John Klingberg is out of the lineup, Heiskanen owners shouldn't have to worry about PP1 minutes.  

Some bad news for the Kings, as Drew Doughty was helped off the ice after being on the receiving end of a knee-on-knee hit. Hopefully this turns out to be something minor, given how critically important Doughty is to the Kings. Jani Hakanpaa received a major penalty and game misconduct for the hit.

Zach Hyman scored two more goals, giving him five goals already as an Oiler. Three of those goals have been on the power play. He must love being on a high-scoring team's first-unit power play, which wasn't an opportunity he typically received in TO. I don't expect Hyman to be a 50-goal scorer with the Oilers, but I do expect him to remain on that power play, which could result in a career year. The "follow the money" theory doesn't just apply to goalies, and the Oils have invested in Hyman over the long term. So expect the Oilers to give him plenty of rope here, even if Jesse Puljujarvi seems deserving of an opportunity there.

Speaking of Pool Party, he now has points in all five Oiler games. The door has now closed on your opportunity to add him from your league's waiver wire.

Perhaps a little more under the radar, Zack Kassian has points in all four games he has played in, including a goal on Friday. His regular center has been Derek Ryan and not either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, so don't expect this kind of run to continue as long as that's the case. Still, Kass's combined scoring ability (soft hands on his goal, as seen below) and on-the-edge play makes him worth consideration in bangers leagues.

Because of the injury to Mike Smith, Mikko Koskinen started (and won) back-to-back games for the Oilers on Thursday and Friday. I thought this would be an opportunity to give AHL callup Stuart Skinner a go for one of these games, since he looked okay during preseason and has posted strong AHL numbers the past couple seasons. The Oilers play just two games next week, so it could be Koskinen for both. While the Oilers continue to win and are at least outscoring any defensive issues they may have, Koskinen is worth a short-term pickup if you need a goalie.

If you're worried about Evan Bouchard getting the young d-man treatment by the veteran defensive-minded coach, don't be. Bouchard logged 24:05 on Friday – the equivalent of top-pair minutes, and was even on the ice during the final minute when Vegas pulled the goalie. Bouchard did not score a point on Thursday, but he has three points in five games already. As well, he has looked defensively sound and not out of place, which can be a worry for high-scoring d-men with a lack of NHL experience. With 16% rostership in Yahoo leagues, Bouchard is worth adding in single-season leagues with at least four defense slots.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
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Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
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Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency TOR Players
17.1 RYAN REAVES STEVEN LORENTZ CONNOR DEWAR
13.5 WILLIAM NYLANDER MATTHEW KNIES DAVID KAMPF
10.9 JOHN TAVARES BOBBY MCMANN MITCH MARNER

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