Geek of the Week: Examining Potential Overreactions

Scott Royce

2021-10-24

As Week 2 is just about in the books, I figured it would be a good time to examine both some over-performers as well as under-performers and try to provide some insight as to what to do with said players. I find it's such a delicate balance at the start of the season between being vigilante and optimizing your fantasy team and being outright destructive and overreacting to small sample sizes. Sometimes patience can be a virtue, but other times if you are too slow to make adjustments, you could find yourself on the outside looking in come playoff time. First let's start off by looking at a couple players who in my mind are overachieving. 

Tyler Bertuzzi (DET) – LW/RW

4 GP: 5 G, 1 A, 6 PTS, 10 SOG, 3 Hits, 3 Blocks, 18:41 ATOI

Let me start off by saying I think Bertuzzi has a ton of potential and he certainly could have a very high fantasy ceiling one day. If you need evidence of that, look no further than the Detroit Red Wings' opening night where he potted four goals against the Stanley Cup champions. On the flipside though, Bertuzzi is nearly 27 years of age and it seems like we have been waiting for his breakthrough for years now. 

Things become even more dicey when you add in the fact that he has decided not to get his COVID vaccinations, and therefore will not be eligible to play in any road games versus Canadian teams. That's eight games out of the season he will simply earn you zeros across the board. On top of that, Detroit is still in the middle of a rebound and are already without the services of Jakub Vrana for the foreseeable future due to a shoulder injury. 

I know he definitely became a sexy waiver wire option after his four-goal performance versus Tampa, but I'd rather take my chances on a player like Jordan Kyrou from the St. Louis Blues. He may not be as flashy as an option right now, but through his opening games I think Kyrou has looked great and the Blues team is in a much better place than the Red Wings at this current point and time. Detroit has a lot of young players and the up and up, but for now I will take a pass on Bertuzzi.

Erik Karlsson (SJ) – D

5 GP:  2 G, 4 A, 6 PTS, 9 SOG, 3 Hits, 6 Blocks, 21:04 ATOI

Karlsson’s ownership in Yahoo leagues has soared the past few days as he has opened his season off by getting points in four consecutive games. While it's great to see the 31-year-old Swede get off to such a great start, I don't think it's reasonable to see any sort of return to form for a once top-tier elite NHL defenseman. Between various injuries that have hampered him over the past few years, to his team finding themselves in a rebuild/re-tool situation as of late, Karlsson's time in San Jose has been mediocre at best.

First and foremost, as has been the case since coming to the Sharks, Karlsson's fantasy production gets cannibalized by fellow D-man Brent Burns. On paper, having two high-end caliber offensive defensemen seems like a viable tactic, but I honestly think it kind of killed the careers of both these guys. Maybe killing their careers is a stretch, but it certainly has cut back on both of their fantasy productions. 

Entering this season, Karlsson finds himself on the second pair, and has averaged nearly six minutes less ice time than Burns through the first four games. Additionally, he is currently slotted into San Jose's second power-play unit which obviously isn't doing Karlsson any favors. Also, as I mentioned before, Karlsson has had a bevy of injuries, and is listed as one of Dobber's Band-Aid Boy trainees this year! Just know you are taking on some risk health-wise. 

Finally, I just don't love the Sharks as a team. Yes, yes, I know they are 4-1. But the season is young. There's a lot of "feeling out" to do and early on in the year, some teams take longer than others to get their act together (See: Toronto Maple Leafs). I think the Sharks have a few solid pieces, but overall, I don't see how they will compete long-term. With that being said, I do love Karlsson as a fan and will be rooting for him.  He was a longtime keeper of mine for many years back during his glory years in Ottawa, so I always have a soft spot for him. 

While players like Bertuzzi and Karlsson have gotten off to unsustainably hot starts in my mind, I also think there are a ton of players who have had a disappointing start to the season. Whether it be bad puck luck, lack of cohesion with teammates or something else entirely, sometimes I think it pays to be patient. 

John Tavares (TOR) – C

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6 GP: 1 G. 2 A, 3 PTS, 24 SOG 7 Hits, 5 Blocks, 19:08 ATOI

If you want to talk about underachieving or underwhelming, there are a number of players to pick from for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto has stumbled out of the game to a 2-3-1 start and after last night's shelling from the Pens, they have lost three straight. Morale seems to be at an all-time low and many fans in Leafs Nation are hitting the panic button. Well, I am here to tell you from a fantasy perspective to pump the brakes!

Yes, things do seem pretty doom and gloom right now. And the offense has been the biggest culprit through the first six games. Tavares has put up just three points so far, but aside for the Pittsburgh game, I feel like he's been decent in all the games so far. After his playoffs was cut short to a terrifying play in Game 1 of the first round versus the Habs last season, there were a ton of questions about Tavares' future. Thankfully (and somewhat surprisingly), Tavares came into camp looking incredible, and in his preseason games he dominated. 

The first week of the season Tavares had an increased workload as his teammate Auston Matthews was still recovering from wrist surgery. Despite Matthews' return to the lineup, Tavares has still been getting scoring chances at an abundant rate. He's averaged four shots per game so far this season, and while I don't think he will keep that pace up, it's a great sign. A player of his caliber shooting that much is always a good thing. As for the rest of his team, yes, they've been horrible. But the scoring will come, don't kid yourself. Matthews is still getting his bearings after coming off of wrist surgery and missing much of preseason, and I expect all the Leafs' top guns to start putting up numbers sooner rather than later. If you own Tavares in your fantasy league, stay the course. 

Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG) – LW/RW

GP 5: 0G, 1A, 1 PT, 22 SOG, 1 Hit, 0 Blocks, 18:46 ATOI

The Winnipeg Jets are another fairly strong team that has kind of stumbled out of the gate to start the season. After dropping back-to-back contests to the lowly Ducks and Sharks in their opening week, the Jets have bounced back nicely this week, but despite that, the Danish winger has been notably snake-bitten to start off his campaign. He finally got a tally by earning an assist in Saturday's contest versus Nashville.

Much like the case of Tavares, I'm not overly concerned here because Ehlers is getting great looks and it really feels like it's a matter of time before some of these chances start being tangible results. He's averaging 4.4 shots per game and although it's a small sample size, you love to see it. Ehlers has shown over the last two COVID-shortened seasons that he can be a real candidate to be a 70–80-point player over a full NHL season, and despite his slow start I still believe he can achieve this level of success.

Though there's been some variation, it seems like Paul Maurice likes putting Ehlers with Paul Stastny and Andrew Copp, both of whom are key figures in the Jets' top-six. Additionally, Ehlers continues to be a permanent fixture on the first power-play unit as well, so there's no need to worry about deployment. Maurice seems confident that Ehlers can do great things for his club. I know these two weeks have felt like two years, but don't make any rash decisions on Ehlers. His time will come soon. 

Well folks that's it for this week. It's been quite the interesting couple of weeks to start off this season. A handful of teams are definitely out-performing many of the hockey pundits' predictions thus far. Will teams like the Sharks and Sabres continue to find ways to win?  Or is it just a matter of time before things balance themselves out in the NHL? Either way it's a ton of fun to watch! Hopefully you are enjoying your fantasy seasons, I will be back again next Sunday with some more hockey talk!

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