The Journey: NHL Rookies Update — Jarvis Rookie Debut, Sillinger Stays & More

Hadi Kalakeche

2021-11-06

Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.

This week, I wanted to highlight the progress that some of the NHL's prospects have made, and what that progress will lead to in their immediate future. The names below have either earned a call-up, been sent down, cemented their place in their team's starting lineup, or produced at an impressive rate over the last few weeks. Either way, they have a lot to look forward to this season, and should be able to string together a decent year at the pro level.

Starting off, a prospect I've been looking forward to seeing in the NHL.

Seth Jarvis' Stellar Start

Jarvis took a while to crack the Canes' lineup, as the team went 7-0-0 to start the year and was unwilling to change things up while on a hot streak. When the prospect finally got his shot in the lineup, he wasted no time making himself noticeable despite playing on the fourth line: he displayed outstanding positioning and hands in the neutral zone to either get pucks back or carry them up the ice, and came very close to earning a goal and an assist after two periods.

An outstanding positional steal in the neutral zone allowed Jarvis to start an exchange between him and Derek Stepan at the offensive blueline, and his one-hand pass to Steven Lorentz was tipped onto the post. Later in the same period, Jarvis had an open cage and the puck on his stick in the slot, but a Coyotes defender got a skate on the puck before it got across the line. With barely over two minutes left in the third period, Jarvis earned a power-play assist in his first NHL game, as he participated in Brett Pesce's match-winning point shot.

Four days later, Jarvis was playing his second NHL game, this time against the Blackhawks — in the second period, he benefited from Erik Gustafsson's hesitation on a loose puck at the offensive blue line and went on a breakaway, but lost control of the puck while going to his backhand. Luckily for him, Marc-André Fleury had gone for the poke-check, and the puck slowly trickled between his legs for Jarvis' first NHL goal.

The prospect's ability to explode into space and take advantage of the slightest falter in his opponents' focus makes him lethal in transition, and he has the vision and passing skill to find teammates through the narrowest of seams, delay or accelerate his pass to fit the situation at hand, and generally manipulate opponents in ways that free up time and space for his opponents. On top of it all, he boasts a decent shot which he can release off either foot. I've been a big fan of the way Jarvis plays hockey ever since his draft year, and he is setting himself up to remain on the Canes' roster for the rest of this season.

Cole Sillinger Stays with the Jackets

The Blue Jackets made it official prior to Sillinger's ninth NHL game that he would be remaining with the team this season and burning the first year of his entry-level contract. The prospect was clearly reinvigorated by the news, which came despite Sillinger going scoreless for four games prior, as the center netted two goals and added an assist in his ninth game of the season, bringing his total up to five points on the year.  Sillinger is one of only three 2021 draftees to make their team's roster this season, along with Mason McTavish and William Eklund, and the only one drafted outside the top-10 to do so.

One thing that looked like it would hold Sillinger back from making the NHL immediately was his subpar skating stride, which has slightly improved but remains an issue. His weight is often on his heels and his ankle lacks the flexion required for a deeper and stronger stride, but Sillinger has managed to circumvent his skating deficiencies with smart off-puck movement and high intensity in puck battles, which has led to him holding his own and being able to showcase his offensive side more often.

While he often dragged his feet in the USHL for Sioux Falls, Sillinger now attaches to his man early and acts proactively to get under opponents' sticks. He scans regularly and attacks threats rather than hanging lazily at the point, and generally seems to care a lot more than he did in his one-year stay with the Stampede. The way he performed after finding out he was staying with the Jackets shows that Sillinger fuels on confidence and can be a regular menace when he puts his mind to it.

Alexander Holtz Heads to Newark

It's finally Holtz's turn to be called up to the Devils after an outstanding start to his AHL season. The prospect has netted five goals through four games for the Utica Devils, leading his team in that metric by a margin of three. His shot is truly such a versatile weapon: he can score one-timers, has the finesse to roof a backhand in-tight, and his wrister just looks like it'd hurt. He has one of those heavy releases that freezes goaltenders right on the spot.

When Holtz missed out on the Devils' opening roster back in October, he had still managed to leave the impression that he'd be back very soon. I wrote an update on Holtz's DobberProspects profile at the beginning of the month, saying that he would be up with the big team in a matter of weeks. Turns out I was wrong: it was a matter of days. Two, to be exact.

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With a player like Holtz, the plan is simple: play him with a high-end playmaker, and make him your trigger man on the power-play. With Jack Hughes on the sidelines for a while, I'd be extremely interested to see what kind of chemistry Holtz can cook up with Dawson Mercer. If not him, then it has to be Nico Hischier. Either way, Holtz would be better utilized ahead of the bottom-six, in which top playmakers are scarce and time on the puck is minimal.

Cole Caufield Heads to Laval

After a disappointing start in which he only managed one assist in 10 games, Cole Caufield has been sent down to the AHL in order to make him more confident, according to the team's coaching staff. If that seems counter-intuitive, it's because it is. I've already spoken at length about Caufield's relegation in my Prospect Ramblings over at DobberProspects, so I'll keep it short and simple.

The Habs have to play Caufield in situations that will benefit him.

18-20 minutes with Jonathan Drouin and Nick Suzuki? Good.

11-14 minutes with Adam Brooks and Joel Armia? Bad.

I'll let you take a wild guess as to which of these two situations the team has tried so far for the prospect.

Now the Canadiens continue to struggle scoring goals (apart from their game against the Bertuzzi-less Detroit Red Wings), especially on the power-play, and one of their best weapons on the man-advantage is in the minors. At least in Laval he'll be put in a position to succeed and likely will, but that changes very little if Caufield comes back up only to play 11 minutes with Brooks and Armia again. He was one of the team's most noticeable forwards on the offensive side before being sent down, and should be back up very soon.

Peyton Krebs to Buffalo

The Jack Eichel saga finally comes to an end. The Golden Knights, yet again, get their hands on a star via trade, acquiring the Sabres' former franchise center and a third-round pick in exchange for Alex Tuch, Krebs, a first-round pick, and a second-round pick. The trade itself has been discussed everywhere since the announcement, but my focus is on what this means for Krebs. The center has been unable to put points on the board through nine games so far for the Knights, despite earning five assists in two AHL games for the Henderson Silver Knights.

He now finds himself on a porous roster in need of help down the middle, in which he can focus on his game and not worry about the score too much. He joins a familiar face in frequent World Juniors teammate Dylan Cozens — the two played together three times in such circumstances dating back to 2019, often on the same line  — and Buffalo adds a local product in Tuch as well.

This move doesn't guarantee Krebs points or NHL time this year, but he's got a much more solid shot at some quality playing time on a team that isn't too focused on the Stanley Cup at the moment. What worries me is the long-term impact of playing on a team without a cup-winning mindset or a purposeful direction. The Knights already look like the hands-down winners of this trade, and this could get even uglier if Krebs doesn't become a star (chances valued at 10% after last year, according to Byron Bader's hockey prospecting model). He hasn't turned 20 yet, however —  there's a bunch of time to try and build a core player out of Krebs.

Follow me on Twitter @HadiK_Scouting for all of your fantasy prospect needs!

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