Ramblings: Nedeljkovic; Joseph; Hornqvist; Breaking Down Shot Rates for Gezlaf & Other Outliers (Nov 10)

Alexander MacLean

2021-11-10

The NHL continues to completely ruin the response to the Brad Aldrich situation. It's extremely disheartening to see that they really just don't care about the players, and won't make any move to care for anything but the bottom-line of the business. At least we have players like Carey Price that are starting to take their wellbeing into their own hands. Good on you Carey, and I hope you continue to receive the help you need.

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Heads up if you weren't aware already, the Islanders play their only game of the week tomorrow. If you have some of their secondary/fringe players, you will be better off streaming for them come Friday, as there are lots of options of teams that play twice over the weekend.

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Patric Hornqvist was up on the top powerplay in place of Sam Reinhart last night, and actually played a fair bit with both units. If that lasts for any length of time then Hornqvist's fantasy stock should really climb. He'll make for a good net-front presence on a top-unit with a ton of skill to burn.

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No Dougie Hamilton is no problem for Ty Smith, who stepped up on the top power pay unit and on the scoresheet with three points. The Devils scored seven against Spencer Knight who was playing in back-to-back games, and had points from a baker's-dozen of different players. The team has started slowly, and has had trouble getting into a rhythm with all their injuries. There are quite a few buy-low options here despite all of the first-round pedigree.

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It sounds as though Jon Cooper has settled into a bit of a set lineup for his forwards now that there has been some time for the group to gel since the Nikita Kucherov injury. The big winner is Matthew Joseph, playing on a line with Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn. He's likely the only one of that top-six group that will be available in your league. He had one assist last night, and is up to five points in 12 games. Not setting the world on fire, but he has points in his last two, and all five points have come in the last eight games (since Kucherov went down).

On the back-end, Erik Cernak was hurt during the first period of last night's play. As far as multi-category stat stuffers go, there aren't many better. If you're looking to fill the same stats, the in-house replacement Cal Foote may be someone to keep an eye on if he starts seeing some regular shifts with the team.

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An under the radar option that might be worth a look in deeper leagues or as a short-term streamer is Andreas Athanasiou. The winger has played three games so far this season after missing the first few weeks with an injury. He looks fully healthy now with three points, five shots, and a healthy amount of power play time. He has mainly been up on the second line with Phillip Danault and Alex Iafallo – all three are running hot right now.

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Stuart Skinner started his first game of the season, and stood his ground, allowing three goals on 38 shots, which compared favourably to his one start last year where he allowed five goals, also on 38 shots. He is the clear number three in the organization, and with his competition being an overpaid impending UFA, and a 39-year-old, there is some upside for Skinner in the near future.

On the other side of the ice, Vladislav Namestnikov is really looking confident of late:

In net for the Red Wings, Alex Nedeljkovic held on for his third win of the season. He has a very respectable save percentage, just a shade over .910, but his GAA of three is not exactly what fantasy owners were hoping for from last year's Calder finalist. Playing behind the Detroit defence it shouldn't be too surprising though, and he is at least putting up better numbers than Tomas Greiss.

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Good opportunity for Zach Sanford playing with Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk, and he made the most of it with an early goal. That's just his second point of the season, but with Ottawa having a decent schedule coming up, he may be worth keeping an eye on in the short term.

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Looking at some shot totals on the season, and unsurprisingly Alex Ovechkin is leading the way this year with 60 shots. What surprised me was that there was a Toronto duo rounding out the podium in William Nylander (51) and John Tavares (47). It's too late to buy in on any of these guys, but looking at shot totals is a good way to find the guys that are ready to bust out. A couple names from the list to keep an eye on:

Kirill Kaprizov

Kaprizov is putting bucket-loads of shots towards the net, but he has scored on less than five percent of his shots thus far. Last year that number was 17%, and he was close to a goal every second game. This year, he has added an extra 0.8 shots per game, but the goal total isn't quite keeping up. The dam is going to burst very soon, and this may be a player that could really swing your fantasy fortunes the rest of the way.  

Ryan Getzlaf

Getzlaf is currently racking up 2.8 shots per game, which is his highest mark since his sophomore year. That being said, there are some very strange numbers behind his shot totals. The higher numbers are a result of shooting much more with the man advantage (where he is seeing over a minute more of ice time compared to last season). Getzlaf is putting up these numbers despite starting only a third of his even strength shifts in the offensive zone. Unfortunately, his numbers are padded by a large percentage (half) of his shots being taken farther than 30ft away from the net. I haven't watched many Ducks games, but this all paints the picture of a lot of breakouts that see Getzlaf with the puck just inside the opposition's blue line, and fire it on net. For fantasy, this means that his shot totals are very calorie bare, and his shooting percentage of 2.7% shouldn't actually be that surprising. I'm wary of Getzlaf both for his totals other than shots being anything he can keep high enough to be worth owning in 12 team leagues, but also that his puck flinging from the fringes is not something that is hugely sustainable either. He's a big sell-high in my eyes at this point despite the low shooting percentage (which you may be able to swing as a reason for a league-mate to buy in on him).

Eeli Tolvanen

Of players with nine or more games this season, Tolvanen ranks first in shots/60, and has 36 through his 12 games. The problem is twofold: 1) he isn't scoring, and 2) he is playing 12 minutes per game. Now which of those is the chicken and which of those is the egg is largely irrelevant until one or both is fixed. His three shots per game are great, but if he doesn't have help from his linemates then he won't have many high-quality chances, and he will continue to shoot at a lower percentage (currently 2.8%). At least when he's not producing, the 22-year-old provides a solid mix of peripherals, but at some point a bit more offence is expected. The numbers should trend upwards eventually, but without the added ice time and regular linemates, it might take a little more patience than your average player with only one goal on 36 shots.

Max Pacioretty

Having played in only two games this season, we have to keep in mind this is a very small sample size. However, Pacioretty does have a history of high shot volumes, so his 13 shots in two games before he was injured is something he has done before, but won't keep up for an entire season. What it does show though is that he's not slowing down anytime soon. On top of that, he should play the last few months of the season on one of the best lines in the league, alongside Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. With fantasy owners holding him on the IR and possibly just trying not to sink until his return, he may be ripe for the plucking if you can offer them someone in return that will give them some extra production in the short term. 

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It might be worth your while to keep an eye out for the "Harvard Gang" of Sean Farrell, Matthew Coronato, and Henry Thrun. They are putting up astronomical numbers early on in their season.

Coronato is the only one that may forego his NCAA eligibility to move up to the pros next year, but the other two are certainly worth keeping an eye on as well in deeper dynasties. Thrun is a defenceman that got pushed down the lineup by Cam York and others with the USNTDP in his draft year. He is a very well rounded defenceman, and just to keep your expectations in check he doesn't project as a high point-producer or a PP1 staple at the NHL level.

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Feel free to find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.

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