Ramblings: Ottawa’s COVID Problem Grows; Calgary’s New Line; Makar’s Return – November 12
Michael Clifford
2021-11-12
The hits just keep coming for Ottawa as the team added Alex Formenton, Nikita Zaitsev, and Matt Murray to the COVID list. That now gives them nine players and a coach on that list for the time being, which began Thursday night against Los Angeles. The game went on as scheduled, despite the talk that there might be some postponements.
For us, this gives us a clear indication of how the NHL is going to handle COVID this year. If nine players from the roster isn't enough for a postponement, then it's unlikely we're to see any postponements this year. We are talking nearly half a starting roster out of the lineup and the game going on with, potentially, more cases to come.
One thing I wonder is how opponents feel about this? Los Angeles has had their own COVID issues already. I assume that the team doesn't have an issue with the risk, but with Viktor Arvidsson and Drew Doughty already out, could they afford a two-week absence from Anze Kopitar? Maybe their hands are kind of tied here by the league, but again, at least we know games won't be postponed moving forward.
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Calgary changed up the second line for the game on Thursday night, with Sean Monahan flanked by Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane. That is an interesting combination and because I love talking player chemistry, let's talk about the potential of that trio.
First, the wingers are both very good. From Evolving Hockey, their offensive and defensive impacts:
I thought Blake Coleman was underrated but after two Stanley Cups, that's not the case anymore. Everyone knows he's a good two-way winger who has a nose for the net, averaging 24 goals/82 games over the previous three seasons. But what does he do specifically on offence, besides shoot, that helps his line mates?
Coleman prefers shooting off the rush, as he's above average by both controlled entries and entries that lead to scoring chances. While his zone-entry rate isn't high, in particular, when he does get the chance, he can help create a scoring chance, something his line mate Yanni Gourde had in common.
Honestly, though, that's about it. He is largely a defensive winger who loves to shoot. What about Mangiapane? Well, a different story.
From 2017-2020, from Corey Sznajder's data, he was nearly in the 90th percentile for zone entries, with shot rate and shot assists (passes leading to shots) coming in above average but not great. It is worth noting last year, he was the team's best dual threat from both scoring chances and high-danger passes. League-wide, his rates compared to names like Bergeron and Aho. While he won't keep shooting 31% like he is this year – heading into Thursday night – he shot nearly 16 percent over his first 178 regular season games. At some point, a guy just is who he's been, and he's at 17.1% over 190 games, or nearly 2 ½ seasons. If he can create high-danger passes and shots, who's to say he can't support a good shot percentage, while also helping his teammates? That is why his offensive impacts are so good.
That brings us to Monahan. Undoubtedly, not a good few years for him. In my opinion, I always thought he was overrated and was carried by players like Gaudreau, Lindholm, and Hudler. Overrated doesn't mean bad, though, and this team needs a player with his cap hit to perform. When he was at his best a few years ago, he was driving a lot of shots from the middle/slot area of the ice. From HockeyViz, that has clearly dried up over the last couple years, significantly:
Looks like Monahan needs a defensively-responsible winger to help cover some of those deficiencies who can chip in scoring-wise, but could also use a winger who has a history of being elite in transition and driving high-danger scoring chances. Where could Calgary get a pair of wingers like that?
I think this could work pretty well. As I'm writing this, it's about an hour to puck drop, so I'll guess we'll see how the first experiment goes. I hope this line sticks together for a handful of games. Being able to get 25-30 goals out of Monahan again would be a huge win for this team.
That is also the signal for fantasy owners to pay close attention. With five points in 12 games skating 15 minutes a night to start the year, Monahan may be on the waiver wire. He is getting two very good wingers and is still getting top PP minutes. He probably should be added in 12-teamers for depth at the very least.
Last note: he has 122 hits in his last 132 games. If he can maintain that hit rate and find his scoring, he's no longer a dud in the hit category he was five years ago.
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On the heels of Nathan MacKinnon exiting the lineup for three weeks, Cale Makar made his return to the lineup on Thursday night. It really is unfortunate that both he and Valeri Nichushkin are back just as MacKinnon is injured, but it does seem as if nothing can go right for the Avs this year.
It can't be overstated how important it is for Colorado to have their top-4 defencemen healthy. My belief is that a lot of the NHL, particularly among elite teams, is about having a unique competitive advantage. I look at Tampa Bay's elite third line the last couple of years, for example. Colorado's top-4 is, when healthy, the best top-4 in hockey, and I don't think it's particularly close, either. When a couple of those players are injured, the Avs lose their advantage to other teams, even if the forwards are healthy. There are other teams with elite top lines (Boston, Toronto, and others like Vegas and Pittsburgh when they're healthy). There are not other teams that can boast the defencemen that Colorado can, and that is going to be huge for the incoming turnaround.
There is obviously a lot of talent among the forwards, but the blue line is the real engine of the team. They have Makar, Toews, Girard, and Byram all in the lineup now, I believe, for the first time this year. Maybe this team doesn't take off with MacKinnon the shelf. Then again, they have their advantage back. Maybe they do?
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Two of the NHL's best teams faced off in Boston, with Edmonton coming to town. It would be the Oilers leaving with a 5-3 win, largely thanks to Leon Draisaitl's pair of goals. He added an assist on an Evan Bouchard goal that started Edmonton's scoring. Cody Ceci had a goal and an assist with four shots total in a very good fantasy effort. Zach Hyman scored his eighth goal of the season in the victory.
Boston's big guns came out in this one as David Pastrnak (1+1), Patrice Bergeron (0+2), and Brad Marchand (1+0) all found the scoresheet in the loss.
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The Kings skated out with a 2-0 win over the Senators on Thursday night, giving them eight wins on the season, assuring the stay in a playoff position in this young campaign. Both the A's for the Kings, Anze and Andreas, scored in this one. That is two goals in two games for Athanasiou since joining the second line. Los Angeles looks like a strong team and they continue to do this without Arvidsson and Doughty.
Five shots for Josh Norris in this one, giving him 34 in 13 games. A few more games like this and he'll be at three a night.
For Ottawa, Artem Zub was injured and left the game early, which forced a lot of minutes to Thomas Chabot. Nearly 32, in fact. He did not get on the scoresheet but he had five shots and two blocks. We will have to see how the injuries shake out, but Chabot might be in line for a TOI boost. That guy with more ice time is a fun thought experiment.
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MacKenzie Blackwood had a magnificent game for New Jersey, saving all 42 shots he faced from the New York Islanders in the Devils' 4-0 win. It is his best performance this season and would match up with almost any he had last year as well.
Dougie Hamilton was the other star of the evening, with a goal and an assist. He also had five shots and five blocks, and even added a hit for good measure. On the season, he is just shy of a point-per-game status now (seven in eight games) and is averaging over four blocks+hits per game. The monster multi-cat season could be here if he can stay healthy.
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Montreal stormed back in the third period to take a 4-2 win from Calgary. Of all things, the power play came through for the Habs with goals from Nick Suzuki and Brendan Gallagher proving the difference. Unsurprisingly, Mike Hoffman figured in on both power-play goals, so he did what he's being paid to do.
The new second line from Calgary looked good. Andrew Mangiapane scored a nice goal and the line looked to dominate more shifts than not. It was just one game, and against the lowly Habs, but so far so good.
(I understand the irony of calling the Habs lowly in a game where they just beat the Flames.)