Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

We've reached a point where enough games have been played to try and assess the "story behind the story" for players and, in turn, to figure out how things should unfold over the rest of the season. With that in mind, the three skaters on tap this week are Travis Konecny, Nick Suzuki, and Pierre-Luc Dubois. Are you up to the task of picking which of the three is too hot, who is too cold, and who is "just right?" Pause here to lock in guesses then read on to see if you scored a hat trick! Data for all players is current through Friday 11/12.

Travis Konecny (12 games, 4 G, 4 A, 35 SOG, 2 PPPts, 17:20 TOI, 3:02 PP, 57.4% PP%)

Everything was going according to plan for Konecny, who saw his points per game rise from his first season to his second then from his second to his third, before a major breakout in his fourth, which saw him score at an 76 point pace. Naturally great things were expected for 2020-21; but Konecny saw his scoring rate drop considerably, leaving poolies to wonder if his 2019-20 production was a temporary blip, or if, instead, his stumble in the 2020-21 season was the aberration. While things might improve in future years, for now the real Konecny is closer to what we saw last season.

Konecny is shooting more than he ever has, and by a lot, plus he's averaging more ice time than in his successful 2019-20 campaign. Why then is he not scoring more? Shouldn't his increased SOG and ice time rates lead to him reaching the same level as 2019-20, or even better? No, because for one his individual shooting percentage in 2019-20 was 17.0%, with him having a career rate of 12.3% outside of that season. Right there he likely lucked into seven more goals than he should've tallied in 2019-20. Accordingly, his point total would've been only 54 in 66 games, for a scoring rate of 67 points.

The other glaring stat for Konecny in 2019-20 was his PPPts, as he averaged more than one per three games, finishing tied for 18th among all forwards in PPPts despite ranking only 66th in PP minutes. In fact, in just 66 contests in 2019-20 he more than doubled his PPPt output from 163 combined games over his prior two seasons. Contrast that with 2020-21 and this season thus far, where he's at a rate of one PPPt per every five or six games.

What's the explanation then? To some degree this is due to Konecny receiving PP2 time in 2020-21, versus PP1 in 2019-20. However, his IPP on the PP in 2019-20 was 82.1%, which was quite high when also on the ice were the likes of Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier. Simply put he ran unsustainably hot, and we're seeing the effect of that in 2021-22 thus far, what with Konecny still on PP1 – for now – yet his PP IPP not even being 50%. Long story short, Konecny is cut from a cloth where he either is strong if he's on a second PP unit and not surrounded by as capable players, or weak on a PP1 amidst top tier talent, with the end result being Konecny scoring one PPPt per every five or six games. If his PP production in 2019-20 was in keeping with that rate, he'd have had 11 fewer PPPts!

Can we stop right here are declare him too hot for 2021-22? Not so fast. Beyond the seemingly sustainable increases in SOG rate and ice time, he's not being moved around the line-up as he was last season, which led to him not even spending 15% of his even strength ice time with the same two players, and having seven combinations of linemates which comprised at least 5% of his even strength ice time. This season over 80% of his ice time has been with Couturier and Giroux.

But is that a good thing? Looking at Q4 of 2020-21, Konecny saw the most ice time with those two and the result wasn't even a point per every other game for Konecny. So although he's now playing with the best of the best Flyer forwards, we can't assume that will mean he sees his scoring skyrocket, as just is the case on the power play those other two are more points magnets than Konecny. This is reflected in Konecny's overall IPP, which is not even 60% for 2021-22. It's a catch-22 in that he's surrounded by the best talent on the Flyers, but the goals being scored are leading more so to points for them versus him.

Still only 24, Konecny has time to develop into a very good forward; yet what he seems to be thus far in his career is a solid supporting player who can skate with top tier talent but who is not a points magnet at ES or on the PP. As such, thus far Konecny's 2021-22 output has been JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 6.0, as I'd look for him to score at a rate of right around 55-60 points. That having been said, because he's so young he still has a chance to come into his own, perhaps once Couturier and Giroux slow.

Nick Suzuki (15 games, 4 G, 10 A, 39 SOG, 5 PPPts, 18:39 TOI, 2:07 PP, 47.2% PP%)

Drafted in 2017, Suzuki was in the NHL to stay by age 20, and he posted an impressive 47 point scoring rate as a rookie despite hitting a wall that saw him tally just one point in his final eight contests. He progressed nicely last season, upping his scoring rate to 60 points and this time finishing strong, to the tune of 14 points in his last 11 games. For 2021-22 he's performing even better, with a scoring pace of 77 points thus far. Is it safe to say Suzuki has come into his own? Not only is the answer an emphatic yes, but Suzuki's production should further improve before the end of this season.

Suzuki's scoring pace is impressive in and of itself, but more so considering how poorly the Montreal offensive has fared. As I write this, the Habs have scored 32 goals, meaning Suzuki has a point in 44% of all his team's tallies. The only others above 43% are Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Alex Ovechkin, Brad Marchand and J.T. Miller, so four superstars and a player who's already scored at an 86 point rate and on pace for 94 this season. Granted, if/when Montreal's offense improves it likely will be the result of struggling players doing better; however, if Suzuki continues to factor into his team's offense at the rate he's doing now (more on that below), he should easily see his scoring rate rise even further as well.

Let's also not forget what we saw from Suzuki in the 2021 playoffs, where, at age 21, he had 16 points in 21 games. Looking at forwards who, like Suzuki, were age 21 or younger and posted 16+ points in a single playoff year, those who've done so since 2005-06 reads mainly like a list of superstars: Elias Pettersson, Brayden Point, David Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Saad, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Sidney Crosby (twice), Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Eric Staal. Pushing aside Pettersson, Saad and Toews, all the rest had posted 88+ points by age 25, with more than half having done so by age 22, which is how old Suzuki is now. That certainly bodes well.

Suzuki's non-scoring numbers for the season are increasing, with his SOG per game having gone from 2.0 to 2.6, and the minutes he's gained in ice time (from 18:11 to 19:10 per game) coming almost entirely in PPTOI. Those numbers don't come close to telling the real story though, as over his last three games his average ice time has been 22:06, with 5:15 coming on the PP. Suzuki also has fired 22 SOG in his last five games, so he's upping the ante there as well. The Habs are starting to give him the star treatment, and his scoring will reflect the fantasy stud he's fast becoming.

Moreover, Suzuki's individual shooting percentage is actually less than his career rate, so even there he could see gains. This is especially the case since Suzuki had seven of his 15 goals in 2020-21 in just his final 11 games, and then built on that with seven goals in 22 playoff games. In short, he is adding a goal-scoring component to his game. As such, by shooting more he should be in line for more points by way of goals, especially if/when his shooting percentage creeps back up.

Suzuki's IPPs are 87.5% overall and 83.3% on the PP, which are a good bit higher than what he posted in his first two seasons. But he's still only 22 and hasn't yet reached his breakout threshold, so seeing a big jump doesn't sound alarm bells. Moreover, if they both stay above 82%, it'll be significant since it not only will it show he's indeed a points magnet but also if we look at centers over the past two seasons who had IPPs both overall and on the PP which were each over 82%, we get Connor McDavid and Mark Scheifele for 2020-21 and Sidney Crosby for 2019-20. Again, some pretty fine company.

That Suzuki is faring better in 2021-22 than he did in 2020-21 shouldn't be surprising given his previous trends plus his showing in the 2021 playoffs. Unexpectedly, he's likely lagging behind what he should be scoring. After all, he's so dialed into the Habs' offense such that when it awakens he'll be a primary beneficiary, plus if we look at the comparisons based on his playoff performance and his high IPPs, he has superstar written all over him. For these reasons, Suzuki's 2021-22 thus far has actually been TOO COLD, and we should expect him finish with 85+ points, whereby his rating is 2.0.

Pierre-Luc Dubois (13 games, 8 G, 5 A, 38 SOG, 3 PPPts, 19:10 TOI, 3:19 PP, 59.0% PP%)

The former third overall pick made it to the NHL as a teen, posting an enticing 48 points. He then built upon that initial success to the tune of a 60-point pace as a sophomore, thanks in no small part to chemistry with Artemi Panarin. Then next season Dubois stayed in neutral with a 57-point pace, but he was unhappy; so during 2020-21 was moved to the Jets, where he failed to click and didn't even post a point every other game. Just when expectations surrounding him had dropped, Dubois has emerged this season with point per game scoring that would easily mark a career best. Can it last? In a word, no.

Dubois is indeed on pace for career bests in ice time and SOG per game. But these numbers are not much better than what he produced in 2019-20, when he failed to reach the 60-point mark. Why the better scoring now? For one, Dubois is playing most frequently with Kyle Connor, who has emerged as one of the hottest players in the NHL. Connor is scoring at a pace of 114, and as good as he is – and make no mistake, he's very good – he's not a 100+ point player, at least not from what we've seen from him in his career. So the benefit Dubois is deriving from playing alongside Connor is all but assured to diminish.

There's also Dubois' individual shooting percentage, which has been 11.4%-12.1% in three of his four seasons and stood at 12.9% for his career entering 2021-22. Up to this point in the season, that number stands at an inflated 21.1%. Does it follow that Dubois' goal total is higher than normal? Yes, as he's shooting more. However, what doesn't make sense is the rate at which those pucks are going into the net. Wouldn't you know it – if Dubois had shot at his normal career rate to date his scoring would be at 63 points, or just barely above where he's been twice thus far in his career.

Dubois also has not taken the ice for even 50% of his team's man advantage minutes, this despite several of its top forwards missing early action due to the COVID protocol. And although the Jets have a better second PP unit than most every other team, when Dubois had his two successful prior seasons he was above 50%. Yet he still has a PPPt per game rate of 23%, which would easily mark a career high. This is unsustainable as well.

Not surprisingly, Dubois currently has career highs in overall and PP IPPs. Although his rates are below 80%, suggesting sustainability, Dubois' PP IPP has averaged 52.5% over his first four seasons and never once had been even 60%. It's a somewhat similar story with his overall IPP, which was 71.0% in his career best season but has previously averaged only 61% over his career leading up to this season. Although I said above that Suzuki's IPPs could stay high, he didn't have the demonstrated track record of poor IPP and he's yet to have passed his breakout threshold, unlike Dubois.

The reality is the vast majority of forwards who score at a rate of even 70 points have IPPs of 70%+. It would be one thing if Dubois' rates were low but on the rise; but that's not the case, as they've bounced around. As we saw from the average numbers, he hasn't shined in this area, cutting against him being a sustainably top scorer. The take away from this is Dubois is not a points magnet, getting points instead more so due those around him, as demonstrated this season so far by being paired quite a bit with Connor. Although Dubois is still seemingly young enough to improve, IPP is an area where, in my research, a player either "has it" from the outset, like his fellow teammate Nikolaj Ehlers, or doesn't by the time he hits his breakout threshold. Dubois doesn't, and it suggests his scoring should drop considerably.

Although still only 23, Dubois has shown – mainly via his IPPs – that he does not seem to be the type of player who'll rise to become fantasy elite. Rather, he's a solid contributor who can play in the top six and fare well if surrounded by talented linemates. For these reasons, his 2021-22 output thus far has been TOO HOT, and my guess is once all is said and done for this season he'll be in 55-65 point territory depending on linemates and deployment, so he gets a rating of 9.0.

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Questions for Mailbag

My monthly mailbag is in a couple of weeks and has plenty of room for questions .To get yours to me, you can (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, or (2) email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.