Capped: Navigating Defence Contracts, Part 4
Logan Doyle
2021-11-18
With the final part of our series on defenceman contracts we'll take a look at the ones that make us pump our fists and help us sleep at night. Those defenceman whicih have surprised almost everyone, including their agents. Those value players that bring us back year after year and help you win championships.
If you are reading for the first time you can find Part I – here, where I covered the summer spending spree, Part II – here, where I covered off the mid-tier defencemen that had their values altered due to Part I, and Part III – here, where we look at the increase in cost of hit and block specialists and looked some of the new cheap peripheral specialists on the rise.
Let's dive right in.
We'll start with a points-only specialist. After Cale Makar and Dougie Hamilton signed for huge money, most expected the league leader in points by a defencemen would sign for a lot more than initially expected. And then Tyson Barrie threw everyone for a loop and re-signed in Edmonton for a dizzying $4.5M per year, for three years.
I say points only specialist because Barrie is like a desert oasis. Unless he puts up points, he will leave the rest of your categories dry, baren, and void of signs of life. He has only surpassed 200 shots on goal once in his career, averages a hit every two games and barely a block a game. If you count penalties, forget it, he needs a map to find the penalty box.
All that said, he can stumble his way to 50 points in Edmonton. Give him a hot streak and he will easily push 60 points with potential for more if stars align. With all the eight- and nine-million-dollar contracts handed out to defencemen the past five months, having a defenceman that can offer similar, if not better offensive production at half the cap-hit is huge.
I like balance, so let's find some peripheral balance for Barrie with one of my favorite multi-cat finds, Mackenzie Weegar. Landing a defenceman that can provide 50-point pace without any power-play exposure is incredibly rare. Even more rare is the ability to repeat that type of pace. Don't hedge bets, expect some regression closer to that 40-point range.
Regardless, at $3.2M that's a steal. That doubles when we consider the fact that most Weegar owners claimed him as a free agent last season. This makes him a good to great own in points only pools. In multi-cat his value climbs further. Few defencemen provide cat coverage like he does, 160-plus hits, 120-plus blocks, 160-plus shots and 40-plus penalty minutes. Oh, did I mention 40-plus point potential?
He's like a Jake Muzzin prototype with better offensive upside and $2.5M cheaper. This is a player I've had on my radar and toyed with, adding and dropping him over the past three years in various leagues. For five straight years Weegar's ice time has increased. He's now logging 23:56 per game, and three hits per game in 2021-22 and he is now running on the top pair with Aaron Ekblad.
And then there is Jacob Chychrun. This is a good opportunity to remind folks not to pigeonhole yourself and focus on a player's cold streak. Chychrun has not forgotten how to play hockey or how to score.
Sadly though, he finds himself almost overnight, on one of the historically worst teams in history. I've seen comments that restrict them to the salary cap era, but let's be real here, it will be difficult for this team to hit 40 points on the season.
At $4.6M until 2024-25, there's lots of time to cash in on this deal. He offers similar peripheral value as Weegar, with more shots and more power play exposure. That power play opportunity provides a higher ceiling. With 41 points in 56 games last year, he found himself cashing in on the long-awaited hype and a 60-point pace.
Having a defenceman with 60-point potential locked in for four seasons is incredible value.
This year is going to be a rough ride. He won't repeat last year. There isn't enough surrounding him to help get him there. Arizona has 14 unrestricted free agents on their roster. It will be a garage sale come trade deadline time. Anything not nailed down will be shipped out. That likely includes Shayne Gostisbehere and especially Phil Kessel. They are the two most lucrative assets they have to move out. There goes 40 percent of that first power play unit.
As I mentioned previously, there is more then one way to calculate value. There's the obvious salary versus production. Then there is the more universal cost to acquire, value. If Chychrun's cold streak (currently two points in 16 games) continues much longer, owners will begin to get cold feet and they will become short sighted in the hopes of winning a championship. For those looking for longer term value, Chychrun will likely be available for less and less while he remains cold.
My moral side is gutted to include the next name. Seeing how quickly he was claimed as a free agent across leagues this summer I would also be remiss to not mention him.
Anthony DeAngelo is running at a cool point per game pace and an even cooler $1M cap hit. This value will be short lived. It is a one-year deal and he is lining himself up for a significant raise.
If he maintains anything close to this pace he will hands-down be the best value defencemen to own in fantasy leagues this year – that is not on an entry-level contract. He doesn't help you with hits or blocks really at all. I'm not a fan of owning defencemen that don't block. This is really the only place you can acquire reliable blocks so if your defencemen don't block you're basically forfeiting that category. If you own a DeAngelo or a Barrie that doesn't block, then you should be tracking down someone from Part III to balance your defence out.
Then there is Shea Theodore, the most expensive player listed so far at $5.25M. Coming off a 42-point season (56 games) and on a stacked Vegas roster, there is every reason to suspect he will more often than not find himself pushing that 60-point marker. With a healthy Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, not to mention the addition of Jack Eichel, he should be able to replicate last year's pace and become a really consistent offensive defencemen.
This is one player that is not easy or cheap to acquire. If you own him, you agree.
Value deals are not limited to young up and coming players. You can find veterans that find that lost spark. Take Kevin Shattenkirk in Anaheim for example. At $3.9M and 32 years of age, he could regress to a 33-point pace over the final 65 games and still reach 40-points. Few could have predicted this early resurgence after the years he had in New York, Tampa Bay and last year in Anaheim. He was floated in trades for late round draft picks or long shot prospects. The price to acquire was really cheap.
Not anymore.
I definitely do not expect him to maintain this pace. I don't expect Shattenkirk to fold up and stop producing either. Anaheim is not the offensively challenged team they were in years past and he is benefiting from the team's resurgence.
If he avoids injury, he should cruise to 45 points with upside to crack 50 for the first time in years.
In the last year of his contract, a long-standing value defenceman, John Klingberg is once again frustrating owners with a slow start. It bodes well on the acquisition front. The cost to acquire is much lower than if he were on a Shattenkirk pace after fifteen games.
It also could help keep his next contract under control. At $4.2M, this is the type of defenceman I like to acquire at this point in the year – struggling and cost efficient. Frustrations will start to boil over and prices will drop. There is still time for him to push 50 points but he needs to get his poop in a group quick.
One thing to remember when acquiring a struggling player, their poor start is what made him available. Unless points carry over in trades you don't care how poorly he played prior to your trade. Seeing eleven points in 30 games can look disappointing, until you break down the before and after and discover he produced eight in twelve or fifteen games since your deal (hypothetical example). You know the ship is righting itself.
That brings my defensive maze to a close. Hope you've enjoyed this little sojourn. We'll dive into something new next week.
Thanks for reading.
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