Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. I always seem to have a big miss. This year it’s Dawson Mercer. Ugh. Terrible. Probably my biggest miss in a decade. I didn’t have him making the team, I didn’t have a projection and I didn’t even have him as an option in the Guide's prospects box to make the team. The 2020 18^th overall pick I had still a couple of years away. And even when he had a fantastic training camp, I still didn’t make room for him on the roster. At the end of camp it was clear that he was going to make the opening roster – even then I thought he’d be sent down after three or four games.

I can be too stubborn at times and this time I am eating a lot of crow. I should have put him on your radar, at the very least, but I failed to and I failed you. I am sorry. This one I am kicking myself over. I pride myself when I find you steals, but I do take the misses hard.

So, Mercer has 13 points in 17 games and he’s on the team to stay as a key part of the top six. His current pace is between 60-65 points and I think he gets 50-55. The great thing about his numbers this year is that just one point is on the power play. When that part gets going, it should balance out a lot of that 5on5 S% market correction. Right now, Mercer is flying on a line with Andreas Johnsson and Jesper Bratt. The chemistry there has the other two linemates going as well. (nov15)

2. Nazem Kadri is a popular Frozen Tools search at the moment because he is riding an eight-game point streak. More recently, he has eight points in just his last three games, including two assists on Friday. With Nathan MacKinnon on the shelf, Kadri is cashing in with first-unit power-play time, recording six power-play points in just his last four games. Start him with confidence while MacKinnon is out and perhaps even longer on this stacked Avalanche team that is finally rounding into form with four consecutive wins. (nov20)

3. The season of Troy Terry continues on. With another goal on Thursday, his out-of-nowhere point streak now stands at 16 games. I had added him to one of my teams when his point streak was a mere eight games, and I had no idea that this streak would last at least another eight.

Every season there is at least one player that breaks out from nowhere, and so far Terry has been that guy. His 12 goals tie him for third with a bunch of players, while his 22 points places him fifth in overall scoring. A 27.9 SH% suggests that his current pace isn’t sustainable, but it looks like he is better than we thought.

If you were like me and plucked him up off the waiver wire, you could attempt to sell high on Terry and acquire a more established scorer in return. Recent trade activity on Yahoo shows Terry has fetched the likes of Patrick Kane, Mark Stone, and Johnny Gaudreau (among others) in one-for-one trades. The Ducks didn’t look like they would provide a whole lot of offense before the season started, so I’m not sure that Terry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Adam Henrique will be able to keep up their early-season success (their eight-game win streak ended on Thursday at the hands of the Hurricanes). Those three have been the Ducks’ top three scorers this season and have more recently formed their top line. (nov19)

4. Nicolas Hague is slowly making his way into fantasy relevance. Hague now has seven points in his last 11 games. He’s also starting to see more important minutes, as he is being paired with Alex Pietrangelo on the first even-strength unit while also playing second-unit minutes. Overall, he has averaged half a point per game this season (nine points in 18 games). (nov19)

5. Before you drop Jakob Chychrun, you may want to take a peek at his Thursday statline: 1 G, 1 A, +2, 7 SOG. Of course, the most miraculous of those stats should be the plus-2, which was the first time in 17 games that he had been a plus player in a game! I won’t in any way suggest that his league-worst minus-22 number will improve, so you’ll simply have to find other ways to offset it. Yet after just a single point in his first 14 games, Chychrun has two goals and two assists over his last four games. Keep in mind that he also receives the ice time to accrue the counting stats. For example, Chychrun was on the ice for a season-high 30:53 in a Thursday game that went to a shootout. (nov19)

6. Scott Perunovich recorded his first NHL point (an assist) in his second NHL game last week, with a plus-2 and three shots. He was also used on St. Louis’ second power-play unit. The 2020 Hobey Baker Award winner, Perunovich was already proving to be too much for the AHL in his first season there, scoring 20 points in just 12 games as a defenseman. He probably won’t see first-unit power-play time with Torey Krug there, but he may still have a decent rookie campaign anyway. For more on Perunovich, see his Dobber Prospects profile. (nov19)

7. With the Aleksander Barkov injury, Anton Lundell is one player worth taking a flier on, as he's been spotted on a scoring line with Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe. Don’t expect Lundell to replicate Barkov’s point-per-game-plus production, but the opportunity for offense is there for the rookie, even though he has just one point over his last six games. (nov19)

8. Cole Caufield will get another chance to make a run at the Calder Trophy, as was recalled from the AHL on Thursday. Caufield made the most of his time there, scoring two goals and adding three assists in six AHL games. If he was dropped in your single-season league, he is definitely worth a speculative pickup, particularly in deeper leagues. The Habs look like a complete disaster at the moment, so their current woes may cut into Caufield’s production (just one assist in 12 games) if you’re using last season’s playoff run as a baseline. (nov19)

9. We love a rebound story, right? How about John Gibson? He posted a .921 save percentage across six seasons before posting a .904 and .903 his last two years. I still had a lot of belief in Gibson but one fact about fantasy hockey is the goaltending position is tied to the quality of the team, and I thought the Ducks would be bad. Well, at time of writing heading into Wednesday night’s games, they were leading the Pacific and he had a .925 save percentage.

I was looking around the HockeyViz site and noticed the team defense actually wasn’t bad for Anaheim. They’re giving up a fair amount of shots right in tight, but they’re keeping the slot clean. As long as Gibson can cut the angles and the defensemen clear out second chances, maybe he can survive like this.

One of the big improvements appears to be on the penalty kill. They give up shots from the wings, but they’re keeping the slot completely clean. With no shots coming from the middle, Gibson can focus more on his lateral movement. Fewer decisions always make playing hockey easier.

Call me optimistic here. The West isn’t strong, as expected, and after a brief two-game trip coming up, there’s a 12-game stretch including Ottawa, Los Angeles, a hobbled Vegas team, Buffalo, Columbus, and Arizona. I think there’s a good chance that Gibson keeps up something close to this pace, at least by save percentage, for another six weeks. After that, the team starts Christmas against San Jose and Vancouver, which are easier games. But then Vegas (who’ll have at least William Karlsson back by then), Colorado twice, Boston, Toronto, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia from late-December to late-January. That is my recommendation here: try to get another month or so out of Gibson, then look for trade offers as people buy the turnaround more and more.

Of course, he could just have a great year, as he’s done a handful of times before, and then we’re trading away a potential top-5 goalie on the season. Such are the risks with the position. (nov18)

10. After a tumultuous 2020-21 season, Pierre-Luc Dubois is bouncing back nicely. With 10 goals in 17 games, he has already surpassed his total from all of last season (nine goals in 46 games). In his first full season with the Jets, he has emerged as more of a key component, especially with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler missing multiple games earlier this season. Dubois also has five points over his last five games. (nov20)

11. Bo Horvat has now been held without a point in six games. Someone asked me this week if he is droppable, and I told them to remain patient. The Canucks captain is usually a consistent, reliable player whose pace has checked in at around a 60-point pace over the past few seasons. The Canucks might not be a playoff team, but they won’t play this badly forever. Overall, the Canucks punch above their weight fantasy-wise relative to their place in the standings. (nov20)

12. Roto league stud Darnell Nurse has been placed on IR, as he is expected to miss the next 2-3 weeks with a broken finger. Nurse’s 26:05 TOI is the fifth-highest total in the league, and his 53 SOG is the second-highest total among defensemen. He also has the second-highest hits total among blueliners (66 Hits), along with 11 points (all assists) in 16 games. It will be easy to replace his production in hits and blocked shots from your waiver wire; however, you’ll have a tougher time replicating his scoring and shot totals.

In a related move, the Oilers have recalled Philip Broberg from the AHL, where he has 10 assists in 13 games this season. For more on Broberg, see his Dobber Prospects profile. (nov20)

13. Marcus Foligno is turning into one of the best multi-category owns out there, and no one seems to be talking about him. Over the last 50 games, he has scored at a 55-point full season pace, racked up one PIM per game and nearly three hits per game. His downfall is that he doesn’t shoot quite as much as most fantasy owners would like, putting just one shot on net per game. Foligno though is finally seeing more offensive ice time, in terms of zone starts and power play time. If this deployment holds, then his shot rate may inch upwards with some familiarity to the role. There’s some untapped upside here for the second half in bangers leagues. (nov17)

14. Anthony Duclair being among the league's plus-minus leaders is noteworthy. He has played in the top-six all season, and really has just lucked into playing on lines when they’re not getting scored against. Although, at some point it stops being considered luck. He was plus-27 last season, good for second on the team behind Mackenzie Weegar, and 15 ahead of both Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau.

Duclair is also playing more defensive minutes than Barkov (as a percentage of their total ice time anyways) and is seeing much tougher competition than Huberdeau. His quality for and against is the best on the team, and I think he’s an extremely underrated defensive forward, that is also racking up plusses by playing with some all-world players. (nov17)

15. Why the sudden surge from Chris Kreider? Well there appears to be a bit of a conscious effort by the team to stick him in front of, or beside the net, and throw pucks towards him. I’ve never seen so many goals within three feet of the net, and most of them on redirected passes. He’s getting more shots off this year too, which means that along with getting to the high-percentage areas, he may end up not regressing too hard from his current 23.1% shooting percentage. He likely won’t score 50+ goals, but a first-ever 40-goal season doesn't seem unreasonable. (nov17)

16. If you’re looking for a very short-term play on a young goalie that should help your ratios, you would want to look at Jake Oettinger. One of the many goalies that the Dallas Stars have going right now, Oettinger could only see another game or two if Braden Holtby and Anton Khudobin are ready to go soon. He has some exceptional upside, and is the future of the crease in Texas. (nov17)

17. So it’s pretty clear that Robert Thomas has arrived. Right on schedule, too. Ahead of schedule, actually. He was, according to our Breakout Threshold strategy, supposed to show signs of his breakout in the second half. But he has 14 assists already. His chemistry with Vladimir Tarasenko is helping both players. 

Pavel Buchnevich and Ivan Barbashev have been members of that line lately. Barbashev, let's mention, has been holding his own. He already has 10 points in 17 games. His ice time is up almost three minutes per game over last season and his SOG per game has jumped accordingly. Definitely a worthy waiver add. (nov15)

18. Heyyyyy… Kaapo Kakko‘s alarm finally went off! Yep, the 2019 second overall draft pick finally rolled out of bed and started the 2021-22 NHL season early last week, picking up his first assist of the campaign in the middle of the second period…and then adding his first goal of the season early in the third. Arguably the player most emailed and tweeted questions to me over the last month. He played 20 minutes in the game (that went to overtime) which was easily a season high.

It’s not often that you see a coach so patient with a player who is failing to produce on the top line, so kudos to Gerard Gallant. Kakko had zero points in 10 games playing with Ryan Strome and Artemi Panarin – and he was back playing with them last Sunday. Over the years I’ve had dozens of hunches and dark horse players who didn’t pay off – and perhaps they would have if the coach just stuck with it for 15 games. But if they manage just two points in six or seven games (sometimes even less) and the coach will pull the plug. If all coaches did that with all players, I’d have a much better success rate! (nov15)

19. Nicolas Aube-Kubel was plucked off waivers by the Colorado Avalanche. In seven games with the Flyers this season, NAK put up only one assists and a minus-three rating, however he did manage to squeeze 17 hits in despite seeing less than 10 minutes of ice time per game. He should be able to carve out a bit of a role on the fourth line for the Avalanche, so he should see an uptick in hits if you’re desperate for that specific category. (nov14)

20. Everyone (rightly) talks about how much of a multi-category beast Brady Tkachuk is, but I hope you haven’t been sleeping on Drake Batherson as he has the higher offensive upside of the two. He’s currently sitting just over a point-per-game, but none of his metrics look unsustainable, so he may be able to finish around 80 points. (nov14)

21. I know everyone is penciling Jack Eichel in with Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone when everyone is healthy, but I am starting to wonder if that makes the most sense. Eichel can be a 100-point player with whatever wingers he is given. Meanwhile, Pacioretty and Stone have formed one of the best lines in the league when flanking Chandler Stephenson, so if you put all three together, how much better are they really going to be? My thinking is that there is more to gain with them apart than together, and ideally you run a lineup that looks something like this:

Patrick – Eichel – Dadonov
Pacioretty – Stephenson – Stone
Marchessault – Karlsson – Smith
Janmark – Roy – Kolesar

I am however aware that Vegas doesn’t have the cap space to have everyone healthy at the same time, so it’s possible that one or both of Smith or Dadonov is moved out. It’s a work in progress for Vegas, but I do think that giving Eichel his own line will prove to be a more efficient lineup than stacking the top line. (nov14)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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