Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – Should a GM trade Elias Pettersson in a keeper, and, if so, what caliber d-man should they expect to get (G, A, STP, FOW, Takeaways, HIT, BLK, PIM, and SOG are counted)?

Trading Pettersson now – to most – would trigger worries of selling too low, given his talent plus what we saw in his first two seasons, not to mention he's yet to even hit his 200-game breakout threshold. However, we're starting to get into territory such that at least back of the mind concern has to be creeping in, whereby those who own Pettersson are rightfully beginning to worry he just might not end up being the top tier player that was expected.

Let me also remind readers that even when Pettersson had his great first two seasons, I found his closest statistical comparable was Paul Stastny, whose early career success faded amidst inconsistency and injuries………kind of like what we're seeing from Pettersson. Also, Pettersson is failing despite getting heaps of PP time; and his poor results from 2020-21 came even while seeing a staggering 75% offensive zone starting percentage. As far as hope relating to the 200-game breakout threshold, that's generally for players who didn't make an initial impact, rather than those who poolies are hoping will bounce back.

Even still, Pettersson is still young enough and with name recognition that even now chances are a GM in most leagues will value him at a level where you could get a pretty decent return for him. The question is whether to pull the trigger in order to salvage some value before he possibly turns into the next Alex Galchenyuk, or instead wait and hope he figures things out. If he was to be moved, it likely would be to try and land someone who also is playing below expectations but could become special. Defensemen who might be targeted in trade could include the likes of Rasmus Dahlin, Jakub Chychrun, or Thomas Chabot. If forwards are a possibility, there's Alexis Lafreniere, Nico Hischier, Kevin Fiala, or Mathew Barzal.

If it were me, I'd risk it and move Pettersson while he still has residual value from his first two seasons. Yes, there's a chance he connects the dots; however, those other players either already are better options or seem as likely to be as successful as Pettersson.

Topic #2 – In points only, who's a better own for the rest of the season: Drake Batherson or Oliver Bjorkstrand?

When I covered Batherson in a Goldipucks column in May, I concluded his 2020-21 was too cold; but even I'm surprised by the huge step he's apparently taken. Bjorkstrand also was someone I thought would perform better this season, with him somehow finding a way to up his scoring rate from 2019-20 to 2020-21 despite Columbus' goals per game dipping from 2.57 to 2.39 and Bjorkstrand not taking the ice for even 50% of his team's PP minutes.

Thus far this season each is a top winger for his respective team, with very comparable ice times and share of PP minutes, plus firing roughly the same rate of pucks on net. I think Bjorkstrand has more pure talent of the two, which is vital since Columbus lacks a true #1 center, forcing Bjorkstrand to play with the likes of Boone Jenner, Cole Sillinger and Jack Roslovic, compared to Batherson, who has the upstart Josh Norris.

Batherson is doing what he's doing with a bloated Offensive Zone Starting Percentage though as compared to Bjorkstrand's. Even still, the question pertained to just this season, so we might not see Batherson's OZ% come back to earth given that Ottawa is looking to deploy him in the most offensively favorable manner, at least for now. In contrast, Bjorkstrand doesn't have numbers that stand out as unsustainable. His IPPs are high, but they've either been that way all along, or trending upward. Moreover, one indirect benefit of playing with less talented centers is when goals occur with Bjorkstrand on the ice he tends to almost always have a hand in the scoring.

What it boils down to is Bjorkstrand having superior – at least for now – individual talent, while Batherson is skilled in his own right and playing alongside better linemates. It's very close, such that I could see both having scoring rates within a few points of each other. I'm giving the slight edge to Bjorkstrand for 2021-22 – and, actually, in keeper leagues too – because of his track record and Batherson having to share more points with better linemates.

Topic #3 – In a points only keeper, with a bonus for PPG, SHG, and Hat Tricks, who's the better own: Johnny Gaudreau or Jake Guentzel?

Gaudreau has started 2021-22 at a much better pace than we saw from him over the past two seasons. But there were signs of this even in 2020-21, as Gaudreau, once put on a line with Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk, posted 17 points in his last 14 games. While poolies were busy blaming Gaudreau for his poor production over the prior two seasons, perhaps it was a case of playing mainly alongside the likes of Sean Monahan, who's now a shell of his former self, and, for last season in particular, Sam Bennett, who, prior to achieving success on the Panthers, was an unmitigated disaster with the Flames. Rather than it being due to Gaudreau playing poorly, it could have been his linemates dragging him down. Now that he has a home alongside Lindholm and Tkachuk however, all is seemingly well for him and the entire trio. As far as PPGs and Hat Tricks, he's essentially even with Guentzel in both over the past four seasons, so those league particulars are not consequential.

Guentzel is arguably the most offensively talented winger with whom Sidney Crosby has found chemistry since Crosby entered the league. The two are superb together, leading to great stats for both. The issue is Crosby, although supremely talented, is not getting any younger. Also, it's unlikely Guentzel has another gear, as he's already 27. If the best we've seen from Guentzel since he was linked with Crosby and became a PP1 staple is a 90-point pace, that would put him below what Gaudreau has done previously and is on pace for this season. Of course there's a chance that what we're seeing from Gaudreau could be him upping his effort level in order to cash in as a UFA this summer. But cutting against that is how well he did in Q4 of the 2020-21 season, when there was not a UFA pot at the end of the rainbow. Despite Gaudreau having played quite a few more career games, there's only a one age year difference between the two, so that's not a factor.

As tough as it is to not side with a player stapled to Sidney Crosby, I think we've seen enough to realize Gaudreau has been reborn alongside Lindholm and Tkachuk, with 90 points being his downside, especially given his IPP on the PP is just 27.3%, so that should see him get several more PPPts in the normal course. Given we've yet to see Guentzel score at a higher pace than that, coupled with Crosby's advancing age, and the extra stats in this league favoring neither player, I'm giving the edge to Gaudreau.

Topic #4 – A last place team in the midst of a rebuild in a points only league needs to decide whether to add Lucas Raymond or Jesse Puljujarvi and already has Dylan Larkin and Moritz Seider on their team. Which would be the better player to get?

For a rebuilding team, if I had to pick the top three NHL squads with the best players to own, Detroit would definitely be one of them. They have a solid young core which should get only better in the years to come. Raymond is already playing well enough to ensure that not only will he stick with the Red Wings but also be a centerpiece of their offense. All this being said, JP, who, as a bigger player, is just hitting his breakout threshold, indeed seems to have come into his own. While it is true that Connor McDavid has had a rotating cast of wingers over his career, so too did Sidney Crosby until Jake Guentzel arrived, and since then they've been inseparable. We may be witnessing the birth of a similar duo in Edmonton.

If this was a multi-cat, then JP's "banger" contributions could weigh in his favor. Points-only suits Raymond well, although it also isn't bad for JP, especially until he finds a way to secure a permanent spot on PP1. For now JP is getting mostly ESP, but in this league points are points.

Looking for comparables for Raymond, let's assume he finishes with 0.85 or higher point per game while averaging 2.4+ SOG per game. It turns out no other 19-year-old rookie met both thresholds dating back to 2000-01. The closest comparison was Patrik Laine, who did so as a rookie, but at age 18. In the case of Laine, he had help in that he was surrounded by top tier talent and on a high scoring team. Raymond is doing this for a Detroit squad, which, although better than in recent years, is not stocked with the likes of Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler circa five years ago. If anything, I'd say the lack of comparables underscores Raymond has the makings of a being a special player.

Of course what we don't know is what will happen once a healthy Jakub Vrana is added to the mix, as he too plays left wing, and that means one of him and Raymond will be off the top line, which would be a big step down. Thus, even if stacking would be seen as a good thing in this case, it might not be set in stone due to Vrana.

Both players have caveats in that they might not be able to keep their plum gigs on the top line for their teams. If Vrana was not in the mix, I'd say for sure it should be Raymond. Then again, Detroit may put Vrana on the second unit to balance the offense, especially if Raymond is still playing as well as he is now. That uncertainty is enough to tilt the scales ever so slightly to Puljujarvi for me. After all, if JP doesn't play with McDavid, the consolation prize is instead landing on a line with Leon Draisaitl, who just so happens to be on a par with McDavid as the best centers for fantasy purposes. The GM can take solace in having Larkin and Seider to benefit his or her team as Detroit continues to improve.

Topic #5 – In a nine team, one-year league with skater categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA, SHG, and SHA, who is the best forward to own: Anthony Duclair, Lucas Raymond, Troy Terry, Andrew Copp, Alex Killorn, or Chandler Stephenson?

The biggest key here is that all these players were available, as when this question was posted each was at or above a point per game. But that's not too shocking given it's a nine-team league where only six forwards start per team. It stresses the decision should be made knowing that if/when whomever is picked cools off, then another "flavor of the moment" player can be swapped in. I'd go so far as to say that for leagues like this if there are unlimited moves at least one forward position should be streamed based on schedule and match-ups, so it might be this add is done for the very short term, after which the team moves on to the next player.

In making the decision I'd rule out anyone playing well despite not being locked onto PP1, as they're all the less likely to keep up their pace. That eliminates Duclair and Copp. I also have some concern about Terry. I realize he's been among the best players in the entire NHL this season thus far, but his metrics scream unsustainable, not just in terms of his ice time and PP usage but his SH% and IPPs. Has he arrived? Yes, but much of his great play has already occurred and this is a one year league so what happens from now onward is all that matters.

Killorn is on PP1, and was even when Nikita Kucherov was healthy. He's also skating on the top line with Steven Stamkos. That's enticing, although Killorn does have a habit of running hot but not being able to keep up that pace over the course of a season. Still, even if he does this only until Kucherov returns, that's close to two months of top output. Stephenson is playing well, but his IPPs are running high.  As for Raymond, he too might have a "shelf life" on the top line if Jakub Vrana comes back and grabs that spot. The GM could then just find another guy to take his place. It's a tough call – the unproven youngster versus the veteran playing at a level he's never sustained. I think I like Raymond under the circumstances. If he hits a rookie wall or Vrana takes his spot, there should be no issue in finding a player to take his spot who's playing well at that moment. If this was a keeper, Raymond would be the slam dunk pick, followed by Terry.

Topic #6 – In one-year H2H league with 2 points for goals, 1 for assists, and 0.5 for blocks, who's the better own: Rasmus Andersson or Ryan Ellis?

Ellis has the better track record, even more so given the scoring categories. While of course past results don't necessarily apply to the present/future, Ellis has developed a pattern where he has a middling season followed by an elite season, and this would be the season for elite production. Before getting hurt, he was performing well. But getting hurt is an issue, as Ellis missed 20+ games in three of the past four campaigns; and at the rate things are going this season, he might miss that many before the calendar even turns to 2022.

Andersson is a tough one. Last season Calgary gave him the keys to the kingdom, with all the PP minutes he could handle; and he didn't seize the reins. This season they seem to be trying to again have him grab that role, and he's doing beter, with five PPPts. Despite Calgary playing as great as they are, Andersson's OZ% is under 50%, as he's also tasked with playing tough minutes. In other words, he's being used as "the guy," which means PP time but also……playing defense. It's not like Ellis has an edge in this area though, as he's not seen PP1 time and, despite the presence of Ivan Provorov and Rasmus Ristolainen, has an OZ% lower than that of Andersson.

Given how well Calgary is playing, plus Ellis' injury issues and the logjam on the Flyer blueline leading to Ellis not being given offensively-favorable deployment, I'm taking Andersson here. For those in keepers, I'd go with Andersson too, who's not only much younger but doesn't come with the injury risk and up and down production of Ellis.

Topic #7 – In a points-only one year league with a bonus points for GWGs, who'd be the better own for the rest of the season: Sam Reinhart or Bo Horvat?

When Reinhart was shifted off the first line in Florida in favor of Anthony Duclair, it was feared his production would crater. He fared well and his ice time actually crept upward, and now he'll be back in the top six given the injury to Alexander Barkov. This also likely secures Reinhart a spot back on PP1. Even if he was to lose his gig there, Florida has one of the better second units in the NHL, with three of Duclair, Owen Tippett, Frank Vatrano, and Carter Verhaeghe. In short, Florida is so deep that Reinhart still should see good production if, when Barkov returns, Reinhart is somehow not in the top six and/or on PP1.

The big question going into 2021-22 was whether Horvat might lose his PP1 spot in view of the addition of Conor Garland plus Horvat's struggles, whereby over the prior three seasons Horvat saw the seventh most PP time of all NHL forwards yet was only 48th in PP scoring. Thus far though, he's still on the first unit. Also, Horvat's OZ%, which was below 40% in each of the past three seasons, has crept upward to 41.4%. That's still quite low; however, it's a bit better. Still, Horvat has gone the previous four seasons without an overall IPP above 61.0%, and is well under that mark as of now. Not surprisingly given his PPPts lagging below his PP minutes, his PP IPP is even worse, as it's been below 50% over the past two seasons and below that threshold again. In contrast, Reinhart's IPP this season, though below 70%, is well above Horvat's.

I'm going with Reinhart here. Horvat could well lose his PP1 spot; and even though he's locked into the top six, whereas Reinhart isn't, Horvat is not focused on scoring, as reflected in his truly lousy IPPs. Horvat clearly would be the better own if this was real life; however, for fantasy I'm taking Reinhart even though he won't get the ice time of Horvat but because he puts more of a priority on scoring and has shown the ability to do so regardless of where he lines up.

For those in keepers, I think I'm still going with Reinhart. Florida is stacked, with the question mark being what happens with Jonathan Huberdeau after next season. Either he stays and the team remains strong, or he leaves and a permanent spot likely opens for Reinhart in the top six. Horvat also is a UFA after 2022-23; but it's difficult to imagine he leaves Vancouver, where his "real life" worth is so key. That same summer, however, J.T. Miller is a UFA, and the team might not be able to keep both. Even if Miller departs, I can't see Horvat taking on a number one center role, although never say never in view of what happened with Sean Couturier for the Flyers. Still, what would more likely occur is Miller would sign elsewhere and Elias Pettersson would be ready to be the #1 center for Vancouver, with Horvat still #2. Given the circumstances and their identical ages, I think I'd reach the same decision, i.e., Reinhart, in a keeper.

Topic #8 – In a one year 2G, H2H league counting W, GAA, SV% and SO, a team has as its goalies Juuse Saros, Mike Smith, Pavel Francouz and Cal Petersen, with four bench spots, one of which is occupied by Francouz. Available goalies include Jonathan Quick, Mikko Koskinen, Spencer Knight, Mackenzie Blackwood, and Alex Nedeljkovic. Should the team make any changes, or stand pat?

Saros is obviously not going anywhere. Beyond that, however, there are several choices. I think Francouz is a drop. Yes, it would be unfortunate to let him go after holding him this long and his return likely coming in the not too distant future, plus Darcy Kuemper hasn't played so well as to shut the door on Francouz, not to mention Kuemper is also an injury waiting to happen.

Given who's available, plus this being a two-goalie league, and with these categories, I like the idea of grabbing two goalies from one great team as opposed to banking on Francouz. Given how Edmonton has played and with Smith being on the shelf for perhaps an extended period, I'd definitely grab Koskinen, as that way even once Smith returns whomever mans the crease for the Oilers you'll have him. Yes, there is a chance Edmonton brings in another goalie; but for now Koskinen should get plenty of starts, so that's a risk I'd take over owning Francouz.

The question becomes what to do about Petersen, as now that the spotlight and pressure are off Quick is playing his best hockey in years. Could it last? He was a top goalie for a while, and we need look no further than Smith for evidence that a goalie can have a late-career resurgence. Plus, Petersen, although the goalie of the future for LA, is still on his ELC, so his salary would not be an impediment to Quick (re)taking the reins for the rest of this season at least.

Is it worth dropping Petersen for Quick? Or what about Blackwood? Blackwood started very strong; however, he did so last season before playing……well….terrible. In fact, when I did my recent Goldipucks on goalies the data suggested Blackwood was a very bad goalie who didn't have a bright future at all. I think although there is a temptation to grab him, best not to do so. Nedeljkovic, as promising as his – and Detroit's – future might be, it's too soon to bank on him being part of this team's goalie equation. As far as Smith, while it is not ideal to hold onto a goalie who's out indefinitely, the ability to have a possible stranglehold on the Oiler netminders is too important to risk letting Smith go, even though he could be out for quite a while.  As for Knight, with the way Bob's playing he's not worthy of consideration.

In all, Francouz is dropped for Koskinen, and Saros and Smith are held. The question thus becomes whether to run with Petersen or Quick. I'd roll the dice with Quick. Yes he was terrible over the last couple of seasons; however, he will likely hold the crease if he continues to play well, as the Kings won't want to hurt Petersen's future and he doesn't earn anywhere near the salary as to force him into the equation. Plus this isn't a keeper, so Petersen's future production is not relevant. Moreover, if Quick does start to revert to his prior poor play, chances are given who's available now there likely would be a netminder to grab in his place. I'd chance it and drop Petersen for Quick and hope Quick pans out for the rest of 2021-22.

Topic #9 – In a points-focused dynasty, who is the better own – Kirill Kaprizov or Kyle Connor?

I'll cut to the chase and say Connor. The issue with Kaprizov is between his salary and the cap penalty the Wild will incur due to the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts the team will be very constrained in the near term and thus not able to surround KK with the talent he needs to help him reach his true ceiling. It also doesn't help that the Wild are a notoriously stingy team when it comes to ice time, as no forward has averaged 20:00 of ice time per game in nearly a decade and the most PP time per game that any forward has received in the last decade was 3:31 per game. As talented as KK is, with ice time constraints, plus the team lacking a true #1 center or offensively talented d-man, his stats will suffer.

Connor, on the other hand, seems set for now and the future. After a blip in the radar last season he's back over 20:00 per game and shooting the puck more so than ever. He will be on the top line at ES and on the PP, with the likes of Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler for the here and now, and Pierre-Luc Dubois and Cole Perfetti in the future. Connor also is the same age as Kaprizov, so it's possible we haven't seen the best from either. That might mean more when it comes to Connor though, as he's already had a point per game season.

If this was a decision made on the basis of raw talent, Kaprizov would get the edge. He also has favorable player comparisons, as the last two wingers who were rookies at age 23 or older and averaged both 0.9+ points per game and 2.9+ SOG per game were Brett Hull and Joe Mullen, each of whom is now in the Hall of Fame.

I think the ultimate decision has to be made on the basis of where one's team stands. For those set to contend for their league title in the next three seasons, I think Connor is the pick due to his situation being much better. However, if the team is looking longer term, then the drawbacks that are associated with Kaprizov would have time to disappear or at least improve. He would be my pick for a team that's likely to be in a rebuild within the next five seasons. For cap leagues, however, Kaprizov costing nearly $3M more than Connor would make Connor the easy choice now and for the future.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of the mailbag needs questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.