Fantasy Hockey Poll: Sustainable Strong Starts

Rick Roos

2021-12-01

Every season we witness players who exceed expectations. Whether it's youngsters coming into their own sooner than anticipated, veterans getting their second – or even third – winds, or just those faring better than was predicted. Here's what else we know – the list of players who fall into these categories as of now will be a lot longer than the same list by the time we reach game 82 of the season. The question is who's for real versus who's just stormed out of the gates. The answer is…..you tell us!

What you're voting on is which players will finish 2021-22 with numbers as good or even better than their rates as of now. The extent to which a player is exceeding expectations is not the relevant factor, only whether he can remain at – or even improve upon – his current pace(s). I purposely said pace(s), as for purposes of this poll it doesn't matter if a player misses time due to injury. If a forward's current 82 game scoring pace is 88 points, you should vote for him if you believe he'll finish the season with 88+ points in 82 games or an 88+ point pace in fewer games. This also explains why some players are not listed as voting choices, since I wanted to pick those who not only were exceeding expectations but who I also thought had the most realistic chances of keeping up – or even improving upon – their current pace(s), versus those where it seems, due to their track record and/or metrics, all but assured that they'll come back to earth at least to some extent.

Note also I deliberately said current pace(s), not specifically scoring pace. The reason why is I wanted to do something I've rarely been able to do, which is have a poll where both goalies and skaters are included. For skaters the relevant guidepost is indeed their scoring pace, while for goalies it's their GAA as well as their SV%.

What follows is an alphabetical list of 20 players, with their relevant pace(s) through November 27th games. You should vote for any and all of those who you believe will maintain – or even exceed – these pace(s), meaning you should vote for zero if you think none will do so, all 20 if you think each and every player will do so, or some number in between based on those you believe will do so. The link to cast your vote(s) is at the end of the column.

Drake Batherson (Scoring pace = 88 points)

When I profiled him in a Goldipucks piece in the spring, I said there were great things in store. But even I didn't expect him to be this good this soon. His ice time, SOG Rate, and percentage of man advantage minutes all are in keeping with his strong start and his combined IPPs are a tick below what they were last season, so what we're witnessing should be sustainable and perhaps just the tip of the iceberg for a budding star.

Tyler Bertuzzi (Scoring pace = 78 points)

His output has been strong; however, how he's achieved it has been rather unusual, as 12 of his points came in just four games, meaning in the other contests he's been not even mediocre. Still, consistency is something that can come, whereas explosiveness has to be more innate. Chances are he should be able to maintain this pace, especially given his great deployment.

Oliver Bjorkstrand (Scoring pace = 82 points)

Arguably the lone shining light during a dreadful 2020-21 for the Blue Jackets, Bjorkstrand is continuing to make strides. What's more, he's doing this without a top tier center, thanks to increased man advantage minutes and SOG rate, plus still stellar IPPs.

Tony DeAngelo (Scoring pace = 82 points)

I was skeptical of DeAngelo after 2019-20 due to numbers which looked to be unsustainable, more so when even once DeAngelo's attitude problems surfaced, and even when all-knowing Dobber listed him as a rearguard who he felt could score 80+ points. I'm eating my words because DeAngelo is dazzling for the Hurricanes, making them say "Dougie who?"

Johnny Gaudreau (Scoring pace = 98 points)

Don't look now, but Johnny Hockey is back. For those thinking this is just a UFA push, keep in mind that in Q4 of last season, he was finally separated from Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett and put on a line with Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk, and he responded with 17 points in 14 games. What we're seeing now is seemingly just an extension of that. He's doing all this despite getting a point just one in three PPGs scored while he's on the ice, so he could easily be doing even better.

Mikael Granlund (Scoring pace = 82 points)

A two-time 70+ point pace player, Granlund had sunk so low as to become just a point per every other game player over the past two campaigns. However, he ended 2020-21 with nine points in his last nine contests, which many chalked up to a UFA push. Could it have instead been a sign of Granlund, who's still not even 30, righting his ship?

Boone Jenner (Scoring pace = 60 points)

After posting 49 points at age 22, Jenner proceeded to get pigeonholed as a middle six, faceoff specialist who failed to average even a point per every other game over any of the next five seasons. With a new coach in Columbus and a dearth of other talented pivots for the Blue Jackets, Jenner has been thrust back into a prominent role and is thriving. Still only 28 and seeing well over 20:00 per game, including PP1 time and with his highest even per game SOG, Jenner could keep up his scoring pace and launch a second stage of his career.

Kirill Kaprizov (Scoring pace = 94 points)

Can one supremely talented player put up superb numbers even without anyone else remotely near his skill level on the same team? If anyone can answer that question for 2021-22 it would seem to be Kaprizov, as the Wild lack anything remotely close to a #1 center nor a defenseman who can QB the first unit on the man advantage. With first year comparables that liken him most closely to Hall of Famers Brett Hull and Joe Mullen, it's tough to bet against Kaprizov.

Chris Kreider (Scoring pace = 74 points)

Like Jenner, Kreider has benefitted from a new coach, as the veteran who'd scored at a pace of 46-59 points every season of his career is on pace to well exceed that range. He's getting the most ice time he's ever received and remains a PP1 staple, plus no other Rangers forward provides his blend of scoring and grit, so he might just be able to continue to thrive.

Jordan Kyrou (Scoring pace = 86 points)

Here's a fun fact – when Kyrou stood at 17 points in 15 games, he had received a point on every single goal scored while he was on the ice. Yes, his IPPs overall and on the PP were both 100%! That shows he's probably not going to be able to retain his scoring pace, as do his ice times both in general but especially on the PP. He's a solid player, but banking on him playing at this level for an entire season seems like a stretch.

Andrew Mangiapane (Scoring pace = 66 points)

Those who focused on the World Championships in the spring saw Mangiapane apparently come into his own; however, this level of production is still more than even the staunchest of his believers likely expected. Like Kyrou, Mangiapane seemingly doesn't have ice time, overall or on the PP, to keep up this pace.

Elvis Merzlikins (GAA = 2.41; SV% = 0.929)

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It was quite the offseason for Merzlikins, who witnessed firsthand the accident that claimed the life of close friend and Blue Jacket prospect Matiss Kivlenieks, but then was later inked to a deal that shows the Blue Jackets see him as their #1 goalie going forward, not Joonas Korpisalo. The questions were whether those events would inspire him to greatness or weigh him down. Thus far it's the former; but can he keep up his strong pace all season?

Jonathan Quick (GAA = 2.25; SV% = 0.928)

Just when most everyone had written off Quick after three seasons of lousy play, he's stepped up his game and showing signs of late career resurgence. Cal Petersen of course remains LA's goalie of the future, however, with his lackluster play and only being on an ELC, the Kings have an incentive to play the expensive Quick as long as he's doing well. Can it last though? It did last season with Mike Smith, so never say never.

Lucas Raymond (Scoring pace = 78 points)

It's been more than 25 years since a 19-year-old rookie scored and shot at rates we're seeing from Raymond. Clearly he's arrived; but many forget he plays the same position as Jakub Vrana, and it's not clear what will happen when he's back in the mix before too long. One would think Raymond has cemented his spot on the top line; however, he could hit a rookie wall or the team could put him on the second line to try and spread around its scoring beyond just its top unit.

James Reimer (GAA = 2.31; SV% = 0.927)

Expectations couldn't have been lower for Reimer, with him having one season of more than half his team's games played and recent stats befitting what he was expected to be, namely a back-up. His early play plus that of his teammates, has instead seen him put up his best numbers since the last time he was with the Sharks for part of the 2015-16 season. Will it last? Probably not, though with no pressure and good health on his side, he just might end up surprising folks.

Igor Shesterkin (GAA = 2.22; SV% = 0.933)

When I did only my second ever Goldipucks piece on netminders right before the season, I said to expect stellar numbers from Shesterkin, and thus far he hasn't disappointed. We knew what he was capable of from the KHL and his brief time in the NHL, and now he seems to be fulfilling his promise. The one concern that remains, however, is the fact he's never played even 40 games in the same season thus far and is on pace for 60+, so will the rigors of a full NHL season take a toll over time?

Chandler Stephenson (Scoring pace = 78 points)

Another player who I had pegged to do better this season via a Goldipucks piece, Stephenson has shown he can produce even without playing alongside Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. The question remains whether he can stay productive once Jack Eichel is in the fold come a few months from now, as among other things that may be the end of Stephenson's PP1 time.

Robert Thomas (Scoring pace = 78 points)

With a lot more minutes, Thomas is thriving. Like Kyrou he's not on PP1, although in fairness to both of them St. Louis has a pretty darn good second unit. Of perhaps more concern with regard to Thomas, however, is his paltry SOG rate that isn't even 1.5 per game. What we're seeing suggests that Thomas is bound to be as good as many had expected. Producing this well this soon under these circumstances looks like a bit of a stretch.

Jakub Voracek (Scoring pace = 78 points)

Back with Columbus after a decade in Philly, Voracek is doing exactly what the Blue Jackets had hoped in acting as expert playmaker and PP catalyst. Can it continue though, on this team and at his age, plus not even firing two SOG per game or seeing 17:00 TOI per contest? I wouldn't bet against him.

Tom Wilson (Scoring pace = 78 points)

Fun fact – Wilson's scoring rate has increased each of the past four seasons. But for it to jump from 58 last season to the level we're seeing for 2021-22 would be a quite surprising. On the other hand, with fewer than one PIM per game so far, perhaps he's turning into Brad Marchand 2.0, where once he stops being an agitator he discovers he truly can score?

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Now that you've seen the 20 nominees, all that's left is for you to cast your votes. Remember, you should vote for only the player(s) who you believe will continue to meet, or even exceed, their current pace(s). With that guidance in mind, click here to vote.

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Questions for Mailbag Column

My monthly mailbag column runs next week and if you hurry and send a question there's a good chance I can answer it. To get question(s) to me, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
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Starting Goalies

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JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
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JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

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MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
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21.4 MASON MCTAVISH CUTTER GAUTHIER ROBBY FABBRI
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