This week we'll check in on eight players and their cost-per-point production. I will review four players on each side of the coin – four players offering really good returns and four players that could be tanking the first half of your season.

I will cover both their actual cost-per-point value and their point-per-million in salary pro-rated over the full 82-game schedule. I will also include the point pace required to reach fair value by season end. This is obviously more important for the four slumping players than the four playing well. 

Let's start with the bad news:

Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks – 7.35M

Games: 23 Goals: 4  Assists: 7  Points: 11

Cost-Per-Point: $668 181

Pace: 39 points; Points-per-million: 5.3

Life with that new contract is not treating Pettersson well. Only JT Miller seems unfazed by the catastrophe that has been Vancouver's season to date.

He has points in B2B games only once and only two multi-point games. He'll have a shift here and there where you think, 'there's the Pettersson I've been looking for.' Only for him to disappear the rest of the period or game. Everything appears off by half a step. Either he's half a step too quick or too slow. Things aren't jiving for him or the team.

To give you proper value Pettersson needs to deliver at a 1.06 point-per-game pace the rest of the way. The longer this cold streak and turmoil in Vancouver lingers the harder it'll become for him to reach 74-points. A far cry from the 90-plus owners desired.

Rest of season needs: 63 points in 59 games.

Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets – $8.25M

Games: 17 Goals: 0 Assists: 7 Points: 7

Cost-Per-Point: $1 178 571

Pace: 32 points;  Points-per-million: 3.87

This is not what we expect from Wheeler. He's had six straight years with .9 point-per-game or better. Few players offer more consistent production than he does.

Unlike Vancouver, Winnipeg has been playing reasonably well. To say nothing has gone Wheeler's way this year is being kind. He missed five games in October due to a positive COVID-19 test and was symptomatic. It would be pure speculation on my part to even suggest there are lingering side effects so I won't speculate. It's just one more thing to factor into his cold start.

To reach that 10-point-per-million marker he will need to play out of his mind the rest of the way. A 1.27 point-per-game pace would get him to 83 points. It is highly unlikely this will happen but with the way some players are racking up points I just can't rule it out with absolute certainty. For Wheeler to make it seven straight years of .9 points-per-game he still needs over a point-per-game the rest of the year.

Now that we've passed the quarter way mark, this is a solid high-priced buy-low opportunity. Teams will want to clear his salary and there should be a significant second half of the NHL season coming his way.

Rest of season needs: 75 points in 60 games.

Jeff Petry, Montreal Canadiens – $6.25M

Games: 24 Goals: 0  Assists: 2  Points: 2

Cost-Per-Point: $3 125 000

Pace: 7 points; Points-per-million: 1.12

It's purely by co-incidence my selections have gotten worse and worse. Petry's season sums up the Canadiens season in a nutshell, unmitigated disaster. I expected some regression in Petry's game, yet there is no way anyone could have predicted this.

Less than a year ago, Petry was on pace for 63 points. Now he finds himself on pace to have less points than Mark Borowiecki and Ian Cole.

Defenceman of Petry's stature we don't expect the full 10-points per million return we do for forwards. That said, a lot of people thought he had puncher's chance at 60 this year.

Sadly, for Montreal fans, the team is never 'bad' enough to land that coveted franchise-saving, franchise saving draft pick. The Canadiens will bounce back, to some extent and Petry will be a main benefactor.

If he hits 40 points this year I would consider that a win for his owners. It translates to 33 points in 58 games. It's not earth shattering, but it is very respectable.

Rest of season needs: 56 points in 58 games

Dominik Kubalik, Chicago Black Hawks – $3.7M

Games: 21 Goals: 3 Assists: 4 Points: 7

Cost-Per-Point: $528 571

Pace: 27 points; Points-per-million: 7.29

The only saving grace to the first quarter of the year for Kubalik is that he's on a value contract to begin with. He only needs to incrementally improve to reach a 37-point pace. The reason I chose him, well two reasons, one, I thought selecting Jonathan Toews after missing a full year would be cruel (and lets be honest, Toews could never provide proper value on his contract).

Second, Kubalik provided his owners with an outside shot at a 37-goal season.

There is real potential for Kubalik to double his current pace for the year.  That would result in 47 points over the remaining 61 games. While it is a bit of a stretch, not unrealistic.

Rest of season needs: 30 points in 61 games

Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals – $9.5M

Games: 23  Goals: 19  Assists: 18  Points: 37

Cost-Per-Point: $256 756

Pace: 132 points; Points-per-million: 13.89

At age 36, Ovechkin is on pace for the most points in in a single season of his long and storied career. He hasn't broken the 90-point barrier since 2009-10. Not only is he on pace for 132 points, he is on pace for 67 goals. I should mention he has only scored over 60 goals once in his career and that was 2007-08. All this without Nicklas Backstrom.

I have no expectation Ovechkin will maintain this pace, but its also Ovechkin, he won't fall off a cliff and disappear either. He'll easily hit 50-plus goals again this year and he only needs to be slightly above a point-per-game pace the rest of the way to break that century mark for the first time in over a decade. Look out Great One, Ovechkin is coming.

Rest of season needs: 58 points in 59 games 

Nazem Kadri – Colorado Avalanche $4.5M

Games: 19 Goals: 9 Assists: 20 Points: 29

Cost-Per-Point: $155 172

Pace: 125 points; Points-per-million: 27.78

Talk about a dichotomy coming Kadri's way. With a career high of 61 points he screams regression. Yet, his current pace also screams a career high in points.

With ten, yes ten, multiple point games so far this year we're talking about a player playing at a high level of consistency. Kadri has directly benefited from the absence of Nathan MacKinnon. Kadri owners should watch Kadri's linemates now that MacKinnon is back in the line up. His value could be seriously affected.

He's also an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, talk about picking the perfect time to have a career year. If he can continue anywhere near this pace its going to make his next contract really interesting. A raise was inevitable. The question now is going to be: how much?

Rest of season needs: 16 points in 63 games

Drake Batherson – Ottawa Senators $4.975M

Games: 15 Goals: 7  Assists: 9  Points: 16

Cost-Per-Point: $310 938

Pace: 87 points; Points-per-million: 17.58

It's year one of Batherson's new contract and it's already a steal for Ottawa. He is going to so incredibly outperform this contract that he could very well become the best value forward in cap leagues for the next five years.

In multi-cap leagues he hits and shoots a lot as well which pushes his value up even more. He will become a point-per-game forward during this contract but I doubt it is this year. There are still a lot of holes on Ottawa which will become apparent as the year wears on. Those holes will limit his production.

Regardless, Batherson is for real and his potential only leads up. If you own him, take a deep breath because you'll be drowning in value.

Rest of season needs: 34 points in 63 games

Troy Terry, Anaheim Ducks – $1.45M

Games: 23 Goals: 15 Assists: 10  Points: 25

Cost-Per-Point: $58 000

Pace: 89 points; Points-per-million: 61.38

The points-per-million calculation, which is based on his current pace for the season is not a typo. Coaches and players often talking about a switch flipping in a player's head and the game seems to slow down around them. Terry is the light-switch poster boy. It goes without saying, but he has been able to slow the game down.

With a sparkling 28-percent shooting percentage he has slowed it down unsustainably so. Like Ned Stark would have said if he wrote fantasy articles, 'Regression is coming.'

Here's a bit of good news, Terry is not known to be a big goal scorer at any previous level. As his shot percentage plummets to a sustainable level we should see his point totals stabilized with assists. His secondary assists are also inflated currently at 70-percent. Also completely unsustainable. That said, the sample is rather small, seven of his ten assists, so we should see those balance a bit.

All in all, Terry is enjoying a massive breakout year. He won't reach 89-points. I think 70-points might be a slight stretch for him this year but at $1.45M I also don't really care. He oozes value, even in the face of regression.

Oh, and he's under contract at $1.45M for 2022-23 as well. Enjoy the ride while it lasts

Rest of season needs: Nothing, he's already outperformed is salary for the year. Enjoy the icing.

That's all for this week. Thanks for reading.

(all stats from frozentools.com & all cap info from capfriendly.com)

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