Ramblings: Huberdeau, Robertson, Hartman Scoring; Swayman Shutout (Dec 3)

Ian Gooding

2021-12-03

The Sabres-Panthers game ended with the outcome that you likely expected. It just took an unlikely turn at the beginning. Buffalo scored three first-period goals, two of which were from Vinnie Hinostroza. One of Dobber's personal favorites, Hinostroza entered the game with just one point in his last five games. After the Sabres made it 4-1, the Panthers scored two goals before the end of the second period to make it close. Then they exploded for four goals in the third period en route to a 7-4 win.

If you thought this matchup would be a piece of cake for Sergei Bobrovsky, that clearly wasn't the case. Bob was pulled midway through the second period after allowing four goals on just 12 shots. Bobrovsky is a strong bet to earn a win every time he starts because of the team playing in front of him. However, some of his struggles from his earlier days in Florida might be creeping in, as he has just one quality start over his last five games.

In a game where a team scores seven goals, you want your studs to be your studs. Jonathan Huberdeau didn't disappoint, tying a career high with five points (1 G, 4 A). Huby has been piling up the points recently with eight points over his last two games and 15 points over his last nine games. Playing on Huberdeau's line, Sam Reinhart wasn't too shabby either with a goal and three assists.  

Aaron Ekblad also filled the stat categories with two goals (one on the power play), an assist, a +3, six shots, and two blocks. He also has back-to-back three-point games and has taken at least five shots in each of his last three games. Those three-point efforts have also vaulted Ekblad to a point-per-game pace (23 points in 23 games). I don't think there's much more that you could ask for from a fantasy d-man. Cale Makar, Adam Fox, and Victor Hedman are the only other blueliners who are scoring at a point per game (minimum 15 GP).

Anton Lundell hasn't exactly fit in seamlessly as the Aleksander Barkov replacement, but he's also a 20-year-old rookie. Lundell broke an eight-game point drought by scoring a pair of goals. Barkov is back participating at practice (Injury Ward), so you shouldn't have to wait too much longer for him.

Because Craig Anderson is injured and Aaron Dell has been ineffective (0 quality starts in 4 starts), the Sabres acquired Malcolm Subban earlier in the day. Subban should push Dustin Tokarski for starts in the near term, although chances are you're not interested in the Sabres goalie situation anyway. If you're waiting on Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to get called up, do you really want the Sabres team as currently constructed playing in front of him? The Sabres have won just once in their last eight games, but that's kind of what we expected from them anyway.

If there's a silver lining in Buffalo this season, it might be the revival of Kyle Okposo and Jeff Skinner, who were both considered irrelevant in fantasy leagues before the season. With an assist on Thursday, Okposo now has a five-game point streak. Although Skinner was held without a point on Thursday, he entered the game with three goals in his previous two games and five points over his previous three games. Both are scoring at a 50+ point pace, which is a considerable improvement over last season. Although the league would have to be deep, I'd be kind of okay with adding either player.

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We're still a few months away from fantasy playoffs, but Mike's Ramblings from yesterday are worth keeping in your back pocket if you want to anticipate what to expect scheduling-wise. I've given a lot of thought over the last several years as to whether I should target players with favorable fantasy playoffs schedules. On one hand, it makes sense because those are the games that will matter the most. On the other hand, you also have to get to your fantasy playoffs first, not to mention try to secure a favorable matchup if possible (if you have a first-round bye, that's equivalent to an automatic series win).

Before I proceed any further about the schedule, I will mention that this is still very much a season in flux. By that, I don't think the season will be cancelled, but COVID sure isn't going away and we still don't really know what this new omicron variant is capable of. That may affect the league in terms of games that may need to be cancelled and rescheduled, not to mention whether NHL players go to the Olympics. So there's a bit of living day by day here as well. As Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Expect plenty more twists and turns in the day-to-day operation of your fantasy team.

But before I get too far ahead of myself, I'll revert to what is happening in the present.

The following players have been placed into COVID protocol:

Montreal: Brendan Gallagher and Sami Niku

St. Louis: Jordan Binnington

Neither Joonas Korpisalo nor Elvis Merzlikins were feeling well, so Daniil Tarasov was recalled to make his first-even NHL start. His AHL number this season have been pedestrian (2.96 GAA, .897 SV%), so he will likely be back in the AHL once both regular goalies are feeling better. However, Tarasov is projected to challenge for the No. 1 goalie spot one day. For more on Tarasov, see his Dobber Prospects profile.

Tarasov performed reasonably well in his debut (34 saves on 37 shots), but he ultimately fell 3-2 to a red-hot Stars team that has now won six games in a row.

Speaking of the Stars, there has been no hotter line this past week than the Joe PavelskiRoope HintzJason Robertson unit. They led the league with eight goals this past week (Frozen Tools – keep in mind that the numbers might change by the time you click the link). Robertson scored two of Dallas' three goals on Thursday, giving him two points in each of his last three games and a five-game point streak. Although Hintz was held off the scoresheet on Thursday, he entered the game with seven goals in his previous five games, as well as 14 points over his last 10 games. Meanwhile, Pavelski has multiple points in each of his last four games, proving doubters like me wrong. The only downside for any of these players at the moment is that the Stars don't play any more games this week.

Fresh off a 6-2 home loss to the Canucks on Wednesday, the Senators looked like easy pickings for the Hurricanes on Thursday. But as Chris Berman used to say, that's why they play the games. In an effort that benefitted very few fantasy teams, Anton Forsberg (2 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues) made 47 saves in earning a 3-2 win for Ottawa. This was the journeyman Forsberg's first quality start in six games, so it's not as if you could see this coming. Although Filip Gustavsson might be the preferred goaltending option for the Senators at the moment, neither has posted numbers that you want anywhere near your single-season team.  

Alex Formenton led the Senators with two goals, the first two of the game. Formenton snapped an eight-game point drought with the goals.

Vincent Trocheck is appearing near the top of the Frozen Tools top searches, but likely for the wrong reasons. Trocheck has now been held without a point for eight games. His peripherals are too enticing for him to be dropped in a multicat league, but you might want to consider moving him to your bench. Trocheck has taken just 10 shots over those eight games, although he has taken five of those shots over his last two games.

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Jeremy Swayman earned his shutout on Thursday, stopping all 42 Nashville shots that he faced. If there are rumblings that the Bruins will bring Tuukka Rask back into the fold, that hasn't been based on the play of Swayman (2.20 GAA, 0.921 SV%, 72.7 QS%). Although Rask has a long history with the Bruins, it's kind of a curious move with Linus Ullmark signed for four years.

Do the Bruins try to trade Linus Ullmark? (Unlikely this season, because they were thinking long-term with the contract.) Does Swayman get demoted, since he's waiver exempt? (If he starts to struggle or needs playing time, yes, he's the odd man out.) I think the most likely scenario right away if Rask is signed is the three-headed monster, which of course will reduce the value of everyone involved. The glass half-full theory suggests that it will keep everyone fresh, but anyone rostering one of these three goalies won't think of it that way.

With a goal on Thursday, Valeri Nichushkin continues to score at a point-per-game pace this season (11 points, including six goals, in 11 games). Nichushkin has spent much of the season on a line with the white-hot Nazem Kadri, yet another example of why line combinations are key. Kadri himself is now up to 26 points in 14 games, which I had no idea would be possible for him.

More bad news for the Habs, besides the loss to Colorado: Josh Anderson left this game with an upper-body injury and could miss 2-4 weeks.

Milan Lucic scored again on Thursday, his third goal in four games and seventh of the season. Because the season is young and because Patti doesn't mind me using her tweets in the Ramblings, here's a Lucic fun fact:

When Kirill Kaprizov scores three points, it's hardly newsworthy. After all, this is the fourth time he's reached at least three points in a game this season. But when Ryan Hartman scores three points and continues to be hot, it's worth discussing. Hartman absolutely piled on the roto categories on Thursday: 1 G, 2 A, +4, 2 PIM, and 10 (!) SOG.

Since Hartman has been scoring at nearly a point per game over the season, you've probably missed the opportunity to add him if you're just considering it now. But there's some incredible stats here. For starters, 12 of his 13 goals have been even strength, which is a positive indicator even if his shooting percentage (15.5%) is higher than what it normally is. As well, Hartman's shot pace has nearly doubled from 1.5-1.7 SOG/GP over his last few seasons to 3.7 SOG/GP this season. If your league counts plus/minus, you'll also be interested to know that Hartman leads the league with a plus-22.

This also comes back to Kaprizov, as Hartman is currently playing on his line. If Hartman is moved off that line, or some of the other advanced stats (13.9 5-on-5 SH%, 3.2 PTS/60, 1078 PDO) start to catch up to him, then it's possible that the bubble will burst. You probably obtained Hartman for nothing, so he might be worth attempting to sell high for a more proven commodity. In the short term, don't be surprised if he continues to rake in the numbers on the Kaprizov line.

I finally remembered to look up Draisaitl Hat Tricks that occurred today, and there was one. It belonged to Seth Jones, who had a nice statline even with the minus number: 1 G, 1 A, -1, 3 SOG, 3 HITS, 6 BLKS, 29:38 TOI. Of the 32 DHTs recorded this season, eight have been from defensemen. Given the low number of goals defensemen score relative to forwards, I thought that proportion would be lower than that for d-men. That information might not help you much in fantasy leagues, but it's fun to discuss anyway.

DHT = at least 1 G, at least 1 A, minus-1 or lower

If I missed anything critical, I'll be back tomorrow. In the meantime, for more fantasy hockey discussion, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LUKE HUGHES N.J
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
BRYAN RUST PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN TOKARSKI CAR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
JET GREAVES CBJ

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NSH Players
22.4 STEVEN STAMKOS JONATHAN MARCHESSAULT FILIP FORSBERG
21.1 RYAN O'REILLY GUSTAV NYQUIST ZACHARY L'HEUREUX
10.9 TOMMY NOVAK MARK JANKOWSKI LUKE EVANGELISTA

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