Eastern Edge: Nedeljkovic, Bobrovsky, and Merzlikins

Brennan Des

2021-12-07

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss goaltending situations in Columbus, Detroit and Florida. Anyone wanting to go back for previous editions of Eastern Edge, just click here. We have discussed Tage Thompson, Dawson Mercer, Thomas Chabot, Chris Kreider, and a whole lot more in recent weeks.

Be sure to check back each morning for our daily Ramblings as well, a round-up of the night's action as well as news and analysis.   

Columbus Blue Jackets

GoalieGPRecordSV%GAASO
Elvis Merzlikins1410-4-0.9202.721
Joonas Korpisalo83-4-0.8853.950

In previous years, Columbus' goaltending situation featured a split between Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo. However, Merzlikins strengthened his claim on the starting role this past offseason when he signed a five-year contract extension. He's solidified his role as the starter this year, thoroughly outplaying Korpisalo.

Heading into the season, I think most saw Merzlikins as a good goalie on a bad team. Such a belief comes with an expectation for a strong save percentage and goals against average, but also an understanding that wins will be hard to come by. Evidently, Merzlikins didn't get that memo as only 10 goalies across the league have registered more wins than the Latvian this season. His success hasn't necessarily been a product of the team's defense, with Columbus allowing the fifth-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (NaturalStatTrick). Fortunately, he's been up to the task, owning the best 5-on-5 high danger save percentage among goalies who have played at least 10 games. The team's defense may not be fueling his success, but Columbus' offense certainly deserves some credit. Over the past couple of seasons, the Blue Jackets have struggled to score. But this year, their offense sits 11th in the league, averaging 3.22 goals per game. Merzlikins is finally getting the run support to facilitate a few more wins.

Now, I've kind of alluded to this already, but I think it's important to say explicitly. While Merzlikins possesses the individual talent to be a strong option in fantasy leagues, he doesn't have the luxury of playing behind a strong team defense. If a goaltender like Jacob Markstrom goes through a stretch where he's playing poorly, he may still put up decent numbers thanks to Calgary's defensive structure. Merzlikins doesn't have that same security and insulation. With that being said, I believe in his individual skill. I think the combination of his own talent plus Columbus' underrated offense, will allow Merzlikins to continue being a strong fantasy netminder this year.

Detroit Red Wings

GoalieGPRecordSV%GAASO
Alex Nedeljkovic168-3-3.9202.600
Thomas Greiss115-6-0.8993.340

Like the Blue Jackets, the Red Wings have been a lot better than most expected this year. They own a winning record and sit in a wild-card spot at the quarter-way mark. The team's success has been fueled by strong rookie performances from Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond. In net, they've been supported by sophomore Alex Nedeljkovic. The 25-year-old netminder is proving that last year's success in Carolina wasn't solely a product of the Hurricanes' strong defense. His individual talent is becoming more evident this year, as he's backstops a team with less experience. While Nedeljkovic had been sharing the net with Thomas Greiss earlier in the season, he's worked his way into a starting role recently. In the past three weeks, Nedeljkovic has started six games to Greiss' two. More importantly, he's thoroughly outplayed Greiss in that stretch, sporting a .924 save percentage and 2.35 GAA, compared to Greiss' .848 save percentage and 4.01 GAA. I think Nedeljkovic should maintain this starting role as the season progresses. The fact that Detroit is a better team than they have been in recent years leads me to believe that Nedeljkovic will continue being a solid fantasy option this season.

Florida Panthers

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GoalieGPRecordSV%GAASO
Sergei Bobrovsky1611-1-2.9202.410
Spencer Knight116-3-1.9082.880

Heading into the season, it seemed like a real possibility that Spencer Knight could play his way into a starting role with the Panthers. He was a highly touted prospect who looked good in the few games he played last year. More importantly, his only competition was Sergei Bobrovsky – a 33-year-old netminder who'd been pretty bad over the past two seasons. Unfortunately for Knight, playing time isn't solely based on performance. Bobrovsky's massive contract essentially guaranteed him a significant number of starts this year. While that contract may have earned Bobrovsky starts early on, the veteran netminder maintained his starting role based on strong play. He was outstanding in the first month of the season, posting a .946 save percentage and 1.73 GAA through eight starts. His recent numbers haven't been as impressive, but that may be explained by a key absence in the lineup.

Florida's Captain Aleksander Barkov has been sidelined with an injury these past few weeks and Bobrovsky hasn't been great without him. Bob sports a 3.53 GAA and .880 save percentage in six games since Barkov got injured. Fortunately, Barkov has been a full participant in practice recently and his return came on Tuesday night. Having one of the league's best two-way players back in the lineup should help Bobrovsky get back on track.

From the table above, you'll see there isn't a huge difference in games played between Knight and Bobrovsky, but those numbers are slightly misleading. I believe there were three instances of Knight replacing Bobrovsky mid-game this season, twice due to injury and once due to poor play. As such, Bobrovsky has started 16 games to Knight's eight. It's also worth mentioning that Bobrovsky was sidelined with an injury for a few games in early November, so the difference in playing time may have been even greater had Bob been healthy all year.

Based on what we've seen so far, the goaltending situation in Florida seems like more of a typical starter/backup situation than a 1A/1B share. Since the Panthers are such a good team and since Knight is more talented than your average backup, Bobrovsky may see slightly more rest than your average starter. Regardless, I think he'll continue seeing a high volume of starts as the season progresses.

Bob shouldn't have any trouble racking up wins behind an elite team in Florida. However, the fact that the team in front of him is so good may be a double-edged sword. The Panthers tend to outshoot their opponents, a fact which has been especially evident in recent games. With Bob facing fewer shots, allowing a goal or two has a more negative impact on his save percentage than if he faced many shots. Of course, I'd much rather have a good goalie on a good team that a good goalie on a bad team, but it is something to consider if the value of saves and save percentage outweighs the value of wins in your fantasy league.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 16 - 19:04 BOS vs OTT
Apr 16 - 19:04 CBJ vs CAR
Apr 16 - 19:04 MTL vs DET
Apr 16 - 19:04 PHI vs WSH
Apr 16 - 19:04 FLA vs TOR
Apr 16 - 20:04 WPG vs SEA
Apr 16 - 22:04 VAN vs CGY
Apr 16 - 22:04 VGK vs CHI

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LUCAS RAYMOND DET
LANE HUTSON MTL
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM
FRANK NAZAR CHI
NATHAN MACKINNON COL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
GEORGI ROMANOV S.J
JOEY DACCORD SEA
SEMYON VARLAMOV NYI
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV COL
DEVIN COOLEY S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency FLA Players
23.5 MATTHEW TKACHUK NICK COUSINS SAM BENNETT
20.8 VLADIMIR TARASENKO SAM REINHART ALEKSANDER BARKOV
18.1 EVAN RODRIGUES EETU LUOSTARINEN ANTON LUNDELL

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