Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Greg)

I'm in a 12 team H2H weekly dynasty league. We have 19 starters each night, plus 9 bench and 5 IR spots, as well as a 15 player farm team. Our draft has only three rounds per year, so draft picks hold significant value. We have no minimum starts; but maximum weekly starts each week are F = 16 games, D = 24 games, G = 4 games. Skaters have the classic point structure as well as SHG, SHA, FOW, FOL, SOG, HIT, BLK. Goalies have the classic point structure as well as OTL.

Over the last five seasons I'd been competing for first place every year, winning once. As I write this I've started 0–4 and have decided to start a rebuild, with a 1–2 year turn around. My "older" players are David Perron, Nicklas Backstrom, Mark Scheifele, Johnathan Marchessault, Cam Atkinson, Anders Lee, Phil Kessel, Mattias Ekholm, Jacob Markstrom, Cam Talbot, Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper. Players I own that are under age 30 are Mika Zibanejad, Andrew Mangiapane, Andrei Burakovsky, Mark Stone, Jonathan Drouin and Kevin Fiala. My farm team is at best okay, with the highlights including Connor McMicheal, Joe Veleno, Matthew Coronado and Nils Lundqvist. The waiver wire is pretty empty due to 180 players being locked up on farm teams. As such, I would have to make trades to move my veterans in order to acquire some youth. Two for one trades are difficult to achieve.

Do you have any advice on how to move these older veterans? Which ones would you move first? Are there any under-producing younger players I should target and hope they turn it around? Should I be targeting farm players and trying to acquire draft picks? Is the upcoming draft class strong? How achievable would a 1-2 year rebuild be, or would I need to think longer term?

Given this league is a true dynasty and there are only three draft rounds, one can likely embark upon different levels of rebuilds, from blowing up everything, to just some minor tinkering, to something in between. How should one decide which path to take? It depends one's roster, their ages, and how well one's farm system is stocked.

To be frank, I think it's unrealistic for you to rebuild with a goal of competing again within two seasons. Why so? Not only don't you have a lot of valuable assets to trade, but your ratio of older to younger players is two to one. If it was the reverse, where you had twice as many younger players, then I could see a soft rebuild being viable. Even your younger players aren't that young, with their average age being 26.5. Plus your older players are almost all on the downsides of their careers.

If, however, you do want to try and make that happens, here's how I'd go about it. Of your older players I'd look to retain only Scheifele, Markstrom and perhaps Kuemper. Perron is best to be traded in the offseason, to seize upon UFA hype. Backstrom should be moved once he comes back and goes on a streak. Kessel can be dealt when he's traded to a contender. The rest are guys who are unlikely to fetch you very good assets in return, so they should be traded when they get hot.

With luck, that might position your team to compete again within two seasons. But, if you go that route you'll almost assuredly have to do a full "blow up" rebuild soon after, due to the ages of your players and lack of farm talent. Again, I think you skip the step where you try to compete in 1-2 seasons and move directly to a larger scale rebuild, trading assets for guys who can improve your farm and/or for picks, as the draft classes in the next two years should be much better than what we saw in 2021. Underperforming youngsters to target include Rasmus Dahlin, Jakob Chychrun, Alex Debrincat, Nikolaj Ehlers, Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson, Alex Nedeljkovic, Cal Petersen and Jeremy Swayman. It could be a long haul due to this being a full dynasty and other teams having an advantage given their better farms; but you had a good run and now is the time to put in the work to slowly get back in position to compete, albeit likely not as soon as you'd hoped. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Levi)

Let's talk Taylor Hall. Sure, his ice time isn't great and he doesn't have a top tier center; but shouldn't he be doing at least somewhat better? Is he phoning it in at this point? I didn't draft him expecting to get a top 20 player; but I had hoped for 65+ points with good peripherals, yet he's shooting less and can't lock down a spot on PP1, plus was called out by coach Cassidy for his poor play. Is there any hope for him, or should I just stop thinking he can turn things around and drop him for someone with seemingly more realistic upside?

Here's what we know – four times by age 27 Hall averaged 3.3+ SOG and 1.05+ points per game; and dating back to 1990-91, only seven other wingers met those thresholds in the same season by that age at least that many times. Three of them (Alex Ovechkin, Jaromir Jagr, Teemu Selanne) were much more consistently productive and thus do not make for good bases of comparison. Neither does Pavel Bure, who was slowed by injury, nor Ilya Kovalchuk, who left the NHL at the top of his game at age 29.

That leaves Alexander Mogilny, who met the criteria five times, and Marian Gaborik, who did so in four seasons. Starting at age 28, Mogilny had a string of subpar seasons, before rebounding at age 31 and 33 to have two more productive seasons. Gaborik did post 76 points at age 29; however, that was the only instance after age 27 where he had solid season. So long story short, there is precedent for players of Hall's caliber doing, at best, sporadically well starting in their late 20s, and of course he just turned 30 last month.

Another player who Hall reminds me of more and more is Alex Semin, who had two superb seasons at age 24 and 25, then faltered a bit in his next two campaigns, went to Russia for part of a season, then came back and was never the same player again and gone from the NHL by age 31. Like Hall, Semin looked like he was unstoppable at times; however, in other instances came across as unmotivated.

The other problem with Hall is he has now passed a point where poolies expect greatness from him, making it so he's not a good asset to trade. As such, if you own him you either need to settle for less value in return if you deal him, or hold and hope. There is indeed potential for hope, as we saw from Mogilny. Plus, if you look at Hall's prior track record, he went three seasons between his very successful 2013-14 season and his 2017-18 rebound and then solid 2018-19. So if that was to occur again, he'd be due to have a big season again in 2022-23. He also didn't do well in New Jersey until his second full season there, which would be 2022-23 with the Bs. That having been said, the first line for Boston is seemingly set in stone, so it would be a stretch to expect greatness from Hall in Boston next season.

In keepers I'd look to snag Hall for nickels on the dollar or hold and hope he can draw from his own history, and that of comparable players, to rebound to some semblance of his elite self in 2022-23 or thereafter. If you own him in one-year leagues, however, he's likely going to disappoint to an extent it might make sense to look into trading him, even for what would be less value in return. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Frederic)

How sustainable is Jordan Kyrou‘s production? As I write this, his advanced stats show a high PDO, but otherwise his SH%, 5on5 SH% and Secondary Assists % are reasonable. I’m worried though, since he remains off PP1 and has a low overall ice time. It reminds me of Nikolaj Ehlers‘ situation in WIN in past years. Is it likely Kyrou ends the year at, near, or even above a point per game pace; or should I sell high for a more proven player? I’m in points-only cap league, 10 teams 20 players per team.

You've done a deep dive on Kyrou, but there's still more to unearth. First off, in his first 23 games last season he tallied 20 points, meaning he managed only 15 in his next 32 contests, and that was despite finishing with nine points in his final ten games. Was last season just him being plagued by inconsistent growing pains, or could he be one of those players who runs either really hot or really cold?

On the plus side, his ice time, SOG rate and SH% are substantially. Like Ehlers too, although he's saddled with PP2 time he's making the most of it, as his seven PPPts rank him tied for 24th among forwards even though his PP minutes only put him 163rd. As with Ehlers though, excelling on PP2 doesn't mean a player graduates to PP1, as the team may figure he helps give them a balanced man advantage attack.

What your deep dive most notably failed to dig up were his IPPs, which, through December 4th games, stood at 92% for ES and 100% on the PP!  What that essentially means is he received his 22 ES+PP points on a total of 23 ES+PP goals! Granted, his IPPs were both strong last season, at 74.5% at ES and 75.0% on the PP; but had he received a point on 75% of his ES and PP goals to date then his point total would be 16 rather than 23, for a scoring pace not of 79, where it was on December 4th, but instead of 54, or essentially where it was at the end of last season.

Even if Kyrou doesn't run as cold as he did after last season's hot start, I still think his production has nowhere to go but down in view of his unsustainable IPPs and deployment. He's an intriguing longer-term hold, as although the Vladimir Tarasenko trade winds have calmed, chances are still that he gets moved if not during this season than before 2022-23. Additionally, David Perron is a UFA after this season, with his asking price likely too high for the Blues to re-sign him, especially when they have the likes of Pavel Buchnevich and Kyrou ready for more prominent roles. For 2020-21, best to temper expectations; but starting as early as next season he should be put into a role for more consistent production. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Adam)

I’m in a 12 team H2H keep 5 (maximum one goalie) league, with starting line-ups of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, and 5 Bench (only one goalie can be on the bench). We also have 3IR spots; one spot has no restrictions, one is for COVID-related absences, and one is for a player who must either remain on IR for the rest of the season or be put back on the bench but cannot play another game. We are given a total of 40 waiver wire adds, of which I've used 16 as I write this. Trades can occur, but only during the season and can only be players for players, i.e., no trading of picks or pick-ups. Scoring categories and weighting are G(4), A(2), +/-(0.5), SHG(2), SHA(1), W(3), L(-2), SO(3), SV(0.125), GA(-.25).

Here is my current roster, with players who I added via waiver wire moves denoted with a "W" after their names:

F – Mika Zibanejad Anze Kopitar, Nico Hischier (W), Jordan Kyrou (W), Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich, Kaapo Kakko, Jakub Voracek, Andrei Svechnikov, Timo Meier (W), Alexander Radulov (W), Alex Iafallo (W), Jack Hughes

D – John Carlson, Quinn Hughes, Erik Karlsson, Nate Schmidt (W), Jakob Chychrun (W)

G – Juuse Saros, Semyon Varlamov, Ilya Sorokin

I’m not quite sure what to make of my team. As I write this I sit at 4-2 (5th place), but that’s been mostly from good luck, as I have won a few close weeks. My overall points scored is in the bottom half of the league, although admittedly it is early. I just had the entire pool’s second lowest scoring week of the season in week six. Here are things I'm pondering. Please give me your thoughts.

1) Is the Islanders duo worth holding, or should I drop Varlamov for someone like Jake Oettinger?

2) Are struggling players like Hischier and Chychrun worth holding onto?

3) Is Iafallo really a season-long hold?

4) Can Meier and Kyrou keep up this pace and be potential keepers by season’s end?

5) Can Zibs score like he has in the past? He doesn’t have Buchnevich alongside him this year, which seems to be affecting his numbers. 

6) Lastly, but most significantly, is this a team that can contend for a title? If not, what strategies would you employ?

First off, I think that although Oettinger is playing well it's not assured that he can force his way into the overall picture this season given the Stars have Braden Holtby, Anton Khudobin, and perhaps even Ben Bishop all factoring into the equation. Or to put it another way, if the Stars wanted Oettinger in the NHL this season they easily could've had that happen, as he showed he was ready based on his performance in 2020-21. But, I think that via Carter Hart, they saw what damage could be done rushing a young netminder. Granted, Hart is doing much better in 2021-22, but the Stars seemed content to play the long game with Oettinger so they might just continue doing so despite his stellar play.

Plus, which goalie would you drop? Yes, Sorokin has played more and looked far better than Varly, but Barry Trotz seems to be a creature of habit and that habit is goalie time shares. If it was me I might not have boxed yourself in by having both Islander netminders in a league where volume of starts and saves matter; however, you've kind of made your bed. The positive is Saros is a great goalie and plays a lot, so if you only get 50-60% of Islander starts that might be comparable to having two 50-55 game starters due to Saros' high games played number.

I think Hischier is not going to become the player many envisioned when he was selected first overall. Yes, he's just past his 200-game breakout threshold; but his SOG rate is still pretty low and he's yet to post an IPP, overall or on the PP, of 70%+, which is the minimum I like to see for a player to earmark him for fantasy success. With Jack Hughes now back I can't see the situation improving. If there is a clear upgrade on the waiver wire I would be okay with dropping Hischier. Chychrun is tough because of his dreadful +/-. He oozes talent, and his demonstrated ability to score goals is of value in this league. I think you grin and bear it with Chychrun, cycling him in and out of your line-up based upon match-ups for the given week or until he and/or his team improves.

In terms of Iafallo, I like his big SOG increase so far this season; but he's not playing alongside Kopitar, so you lose a stacking opportunity, plus he doesn't see time on even 50% of LA's man advantage minutes. Iafallo is not bad by any means, but he's also not great. I'd be open to dropping him for someone with more upside. If you're deciding whether to drop Hischier or Iafallo first, I'd probably opt for Iafallo before Hischier.

My thoughts on Kyrou are above. As for Meier, with Evander Kane out of the picture he's doing well again, and I don't think that's a coincidence, as Kane does what Meier does, so no Kane means Meier puts up Kane-like numbers. I like the idea of holding him, as Kane is essentially dunzo with San Jose, leaving Meier to keep on doing what he's been doing.

Zibanejad is ahead of his pace from last season, although in that case his poor start likely was due to after-effects of COVID. I think Buchnevich's absence is indeed something that not enough people are realizing is having a negative impact on Zibs and should continue to do so. Yes, linemate Chris Kreider is playing better; however, much of Kreider's damage is done on the PP, leaving Zibs without a lot of ES support, as the likes of Barclay Goodrow, Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere are not playing up to his level. I still think Zibs finds a way to rise back above the point per game mark, but counting on a surge like we saw last season is unlikely. You could put his name out there for trade, figuring a GM will think they'd be buying into how superb Zibs was over the last 30+ games of 2020-21, even though the realistic chances of that happening again are much smaller. Plus, you can always say no. One other thing about Zibs is he does tend to chip in nicely with SHPs, which do matter in your league.

As for what I'd do if I were you, it's a tough call, mostly due to it being only a keep-five league. With so few keepers you don't get a ton of benefit in tanking. Plus, you have three must keeps in Saros, Svechnikov, and Carlson, and several others who could fit the bill. If you're asking me whether I think this team has a chance to win it all, my answer would be no. Given that, maybe you do want to make trades to try and land on two upgrades for your other keeper spots? Who should you target? Maybe Aleksander Barkov or Jonathan Huberdeau, or perhaps Johnny Gaudreau or Kirill Kaprizov? For defensemen, maybe Roman Josi, Charlie McAvoy, Miro Heiskanen or Aaron Ekblad? Good luck!

Question #5 (from Rick)

I'm in a one-year, 10 team league with 25 man rosters and counting, as skater categories, G, A, PTS, PPP, SHP, SOG, HIT, and BLK. Without regard to position, and looking at this year only, how would you rank the following players: Mats Zuccarello, Pavel Buchnevich, Seth Jarvis, Jesper Bratt, Dawson Mercer, Max Domi, Victor Oloffson, Chandler Stephenson, Ryan Johansen, Carter Verhaeghe, Sonny Milano, Jared McCann, Joe Pavelski, Andre Burakovsky, Tyler Bertuzzi, J.T. Compher, Kasperi Kapanen, Cam Atkinson and Boone Jenner?

I'll give my ranking, followed by a blurb about each player. In several cases players are comparable in terms of point production, but ranked higher or lower due to the categories of this league.  Also, I rated them on what I see them doing from now until the end of the season, not what they've done so far.

1) Zuccarello – Yes he started strong last season and then slowed, plus is a now year older. But he's tethered to Kirill Kaprizov and on PP1, so he's my top pick.
2) Bertuzzi – He's been wildly inconsistent and, unsurprisingly, has found himself in COVID protocol. Plus, although he's now had COVID it's unclear whether that will allow him to play games in Canada. But he scores, shoots, and hits, and should be a fixture on the top line. Those are huge in your league.
3) Buchnevich – He started a bit slow; but now he's showing he wasn't just being bolstered by the play of Mika Zibanejad. He also chips in with some very good peripherals.
4) Burakovsky – He's either going to be centered by Nathan MacKinnon, or by Nazem Kadri, who looks to be energized by his impending unrestricted free agency. Either way, Burakovsky wins. He's likely not locked into the PP1 picture though, but Colorado's second unit is one of the better ones in the NHL.
5) Stephenson – He was able to score even without Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty in the line-up, so if Jack Eichel takes his top line spot Stephenson could be okay. That having been said, it could cut into his PP minutes, which is why he's ranked here rather than higher.
6) Bratt – His shooting and scoring are up, and that's been without Jack Hughes. He's likely going to keep getting better, although for this season he won't quite be good enough to slot higher.

7) Pavelski – So long as he stays with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson, he should be okay; however, that spot is not set in stone, which raises at least back of the mind concerns.
8) Jenner – Pigeonholed as a bottom-six player for several seasons, the new coaching regime for the Blue Jackets has given him a shot at top-six minutes and thus far he's making the most of it, shooting and scoring and still hitting. The risk is he gets relegated back to the bottom six, in which case his stats would likely plummet.

9) McCann – He's doing well, but not great. The good news is the Kraken are too thin for McCann to be pushed of a scoring line; but it's not clear whether he'll get the best deployment given the team's range of options.
10) Compher – For a while he was on PP1 and in the top six, but his injury came at an inopportune time, as Valeri Nichushkin might supplant him on the second line and the Avs likely will look to others for PP1.
11) Olofsson – I figured Olofsson would be doomed without Jack Eichel; however, he's shown himself to be a capable scorer. The worry of course is whether the Sabres can stay halfway decent or if, over the long haul of the season, they'll falter. Still, Olofsson is about the best they have, so he should do okay.
12) Verhaeghe – He had a top six spot locked up, that is until Anthony Duclair thrived. Plus, Verhaeghe is not part of PP1 even with the current Panther injuries and his peripherals are not great.
13) Milano – The former first rounder is getting his first extended look in the top six and faring well thus far. But he too has subpar peripherals and it's not clear whether he can keep his spot.
14) Kapanen – He's talented and the Pens want him to succeed; however, he needs Evgeni Malkin, who has yet to play and might even get hurt again. If things go perfectly for him he could jump well ahead of several of these players, but more likely this will be a lost season.
15) Domi – He's posted 72 points previously. But in recent seasons he's disappeared for long stretches of time. Still though, he might be well served too by the new coach, as we know John Tortorella was no fan. Until he shows he's back for an extended period of time though, I've got him rated this low.

16) Johansen – There have been several renaissance stories in Nashville this season. But his SH% is high, and he doesn't shoot much to begin with. Plus, with Matt Duchene and Mikael Granlund doing even better, Johansen seems less likely to continue faring well.
17) Jarvis – He definitely has not looked out of place in the NHL, yet he's also not taken this by storm like Lucas Raymond. Chances are this'll be a learning curve season for Jarvis, with modest totals, and that's if he stays in Carolina all season, which is no guarantee.
18) Atkinson – Whatever hopes there were for Atkinson to rediscover his game in Philly, thus far it looks like that's a longshot to happen. Sure he still shoots a lot, but the points aren't there and he's moving down the depth chart.
19) Mercer – A nice surprise story, but one which does not seem destined to result in him putting up great numbers all season. In fact, with Jack Hughes returning it's not clear how Mercer will produce, with the likely outcome him not even finishing the season in the NHL.

Looking back, I think the top six are in a tier above the rest. As for the others, there could be a lot of movement up or down depending on linemates and circumstances, yet this is what I see as their most likely rankings for this year given the categories. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Mike)

What is up with Tyler Seguin and Blake Wheeler? I know Seguin is returning from injury; but even accounting for that his production is downright lousy. Can we expect any improvement? Wheeler also has come out of the gates very slow. Is he fading or it is just a case of the team as a whole having struggled? I am inclined to give up on both, but I don't want to have it come back to bite me.

Whether it's due to age, a post-injury slowdown, or both, Seguin is not playing like the Seguin of old. Also, looking back at Seguin's career, it seems pretty simple to see his keys to success, and they were 3.7+ SOG, 19:21+ TOI overall, and 3:09+ on the PP per game. Every season where he met those three thresholds he had a scoring pace of 78+ points. As of now his SOG rate is one per game less than even his worst prior season as a Star, with his ice times overall and on the PP never having been lower either.

Are there rays of hope? Maybe, maybe not. His IPP overall usually is in the 60s and on the PP it ranges from 65-78%. This season he's at 45.5% and 33.3%. If those were his normal rates he'd have 16 points instead of ten. But are his low IPPs a result of him being unlucky, or further evidence he's slowing? Were he not coming back from a major injury and set to turn 30 next month, I'd think he was bound to see those numbers rise significantly. But it might be they're low because that's all he can muster right now. Still though, those IPPs are enough to convince me you should not drop him unless it's for a player with 65 point downside or you're in a keeper and can grab a player who offers more on a going forward basis.

Wheeler is 35, and the worry is his age is finally catching up to him. And unlike Seguin, Wheeler's IPPs are not far below his norm, and neither are his ice times. But notably although he's shooting the puck at nearly the same rate as he did last season, he's yet to tally a single goal. So right there he should have four more points, and his scoring rate would be a somewhat less disappointing 63.

It used to be that Wheeler was enough of an offensive force as to create scoring for himself and those playing alongside him. With age, however, he appears to be less able to do so, with the first result having been his transition from a 90+ point pace player to a 70+ point player. While I wouldn't go so far as to say he's only as good as the players around him, it's not helping his cause that his linemates had been struggling as well. The Jets seem content to continue to give Wheeler his customary ice times, so what he needs is a rising tide to lift all boats, including his.

What about comparable players? The last player to score 91+ points at age 31 and 32, like Wheeler did, was Mark Messier, who didn't really start to slow until age 37, and even then he was still productive. Of course Messier was far more of an elite scorer than Wheeler in his 20s, so it's not clear how comparable they are. Still, it's at least food for thought.

I'm inclined to say you should stick it out with Wheeler too, and I actually have a bit more optimism as to him turning things around this season versus Seguin. Of course if this is a keeper, then Seguin has more lure. But Wheeler is still getting top tier deployment and the Jets need him to do well, whereas the Stars have Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski who can be leaned on rather than Seguin and his linemates.

I'd keep both unless – as noted above with Seguin – there are 65-point downside players to be had on the waiver wire. If it came down to dropping one versus the other, I'd drop Seguin before Wheeler if in a one year league but Wheeler before Seguin in a keeper. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Mark)

I'm in a ten team H2H keeper with standard categories and I own Andrei Vasilevskiy, James Reimer, Jake Oettinger, and Alex Nedeljkovic, plus Thatcher Demko. My question/concern is about Demko. Even if the Canucks shake up their brass, can the team – and Demko – right its ship? I don't want to carry five goalies, so I need to drop one and I'm more and more tempted for that drop to be Demko. What are your short and long term outlooks for him?

Right off the bat I think the play for you is to trade Reimer while he's hot. With Reimer there's not only concern as to whether he can keep up this pace, but also if he'll stay healthy, which has been a problem for him nearly every season. Could he be having a late career breakout? Never say never; but it's called selling high for a reason, and I think Reimer is a sell.

As for Demko, when I looked at his career numbers, I was surprised at how subpar they are. He has never finished with a quality start percentage of less than 50% and last season his goals saved above average was eighth in the entire NHL among goalies who appeared in at least half their team's games, ahead of the likes of Igor Shesterkin, Elvis Merzlikins, Jordan Binnington, Oettinger, Jacob Markstrom, and Tristan Jarry to name just a few, and with no one ahead of him having either a lower GAA or higher SV%. That suggests he made the best of a bad situation. It also was nearly as high as Reimer's GSAA for 2021-22 thus far. GSAA is a useful tool, as it can find hidden value that goalies offer which is otherwise masked by being stuck with a subpar team in front of them.

What about comparables? Quality Starts have only been measured since 2007-08, so there is a limited pool of players with whom he can be compared. If we look for netminders who won 40+ games in fewer than 100 starts with a collective 50%+ Quality Start percentage and 0.910+ SV%, there is no one, so we have to assess Demko in a vacuum. Given that he's still at an age when most goalies have yet to come into their own but seemingly has the confidence of his team, I'd say he has a good outlook, or good enough to make him the guy you want to keep over Reimer, whom as noted I'd look to trade as soon as possible either alone or as part of a two for one to get a skater in return. That would give you what looks to be a very solid four netminders, with the best goalie in the NHL now and three who could offer very bright futures to your team. Good luck!

Question #8 (from Clayton)

I'm looking at free agents in my deep league and the options are Dawson Mercer, Andreas Johnsson, Ryan Hartman, or Jeff Skinner. Who do you think tallies the most points over the rest of the season?

Right off the bat I'm not taking either Devil. Mercer not only is at risk of hitting a rookie wall, but he's done what he's done in no small part due to the absence of Jack Hughes. With Hughes back, Mercer will see less PP time and could be earmarked for the bottom six. With him also being 20, he won't be given a long leash if he struggles, as that likely would earn him a ticket to the AHL. Yes, there's a chance he stays and somehow produces well, but I see it as a long shot given the factors I mentioned.

Johnsson, although 27, is nearing his 200-game breakout threshold, so he could be coming into his own right before our eyes. I'm not buying it, not with his SOG per game under two and his SH% sky high, plus him not getting PP1 time. Yes, there's a good chance he stays in the top six; however, his career IPPs are very low, suggesting he isn't a great bet for a breakout and that what we've seen from him thus far is a run of unsustainable production.

Hartman is very intriguing, mostly because he's centering Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, which is one of the best gigs in all of hockey. Of course, he's not entrenched on that line, as the Wild have used several centers there and none has "stuck" as yet. Still, Hartman also is firing SOG at a rate double his career average, suggesting that he should find a home in the top six even if not centering the top line, in which case he could be alongside Kevin Fiala, who as we've seen only tends to get better as the season unfolds. He's kind of a risk/reward player, although given the way he's playing and the team he plays for, the reward could be even greater and the risk somewhat lower – that is, it's not all or nothing.

As for Skinner, don't look now but he's having a pretty decent season. The thing about Skinner is he tends to be good or awful, with little in between. His ice time is back up, and he's a PP1 fixture thus far. Now that the pressure is off and he knows his spot is safe, he seems to be thriving. I see this less as a fast start and more so as a renaissance. Still, Buffalo is playing above the level many thought possible and who knows how long it can continue, although they did this without Casey Mittelstadt, who's their arguably best offensive player, so perhaps things only get better for them….and Skinner.

It clearly boils down to Hartman or Skinner. I think you have to go with the guy who's centering Kirill Kaprizov, who's well on his way to staking a claim to being a top five forward in just his second season in the NHL. So yes, the choice is Hartman. Let me again say that Skinner, despite the rightful criticism he's received over the past two seasons, is a guy worth looking at as well. Perhaps you grab them both? It's worthwhile for you to consider and depends on what the rest of you team looks like, what categories are counted – especially for Skinner, who's poor in banger leagues – how many players are owned in the league and how many start at each position, among other things. Good luck!

Question #8 (from Matthew)

What's your take on Vincent Trocheck? Can he bounce back to something at least close to what we saw from him last season, or was 2020-21 an aberration?

Right off the bat I'll pat myself on the back at least somewhat by saying that when I covered Trocheck in a Goldipucks column last season I pegged him as being too hot. The question is if indeed last season was an unsustainable mirage, what can we realistically expect from him for the rest of 2021-22 and beyond?

One reason for concern unrelated to stats is Trocheck is an impending UFA this summer, so seeing him fail to rise to the occasion thus far is not a good sign, as if anything players who are set to be UFAs try to pad their stats to maximize what they'll get on the open market. Here though instead, Trocheck is not playing up to expectations, let alone above them. Not a good sign.

Then again, is he even slumping? His scoring pace is roughly on a par with what it was in 2018-19 and 2019-20, which at first were dismissed as him working his way back from injury. Perhaps that was the real Trocheck all along?

Looking at his numbers, the biggest area of concern is his SOG per game rate, which has never been under 2.3 per game but is a good bit below two per contest. Yet his SH% isn't elevated, so it's not a case of him being a more selective/accurate shooter, just him shooting less.

For now he's still on the top PP unit, and his IPP on the PP is well below 50%, which would suggest he has points coming to him on the man advantage in the normal course. Sure enough his PP IPP has been at least 60% in five of the past six seasons, so it is reasonable to expect him to do better in that area, presuming, of course, he stays on the top unit. With zero PPPts in his last 12 games though, the Canes may opt to shift him to the second unit in favor of Martin Necas or Jordan Staal, the latter of whom saw regular time on PP1 last season. As for his ES IPP, it too is low for him, so there could be room for gains in the normal course.

Of concern as well though is Trocheck's Offensive Zone Starting percentage this season being 55.5%, which is sky high compared to the 42% it was for 2020-21. It's a positive to see Trocheck getting more favorable deployment; but at the same time a negative to see him not producing even at the level of last season despite the upped OZ%.

Overall, the good news, at least for the time being, is that Trocheck remains on PP1, has IPPs that are seemingly unsustainably low, and his OZ% is far higher than last season, with his poor OZ% being one of the major factors that led me to reach my conclusion in the Goldipucks column. The bad news is he's not responding to better deployment, notably by shooting less and not being as dialed into the scoring, plus his overall ice time is down despite seeing slightly more time on the PK.

If Trocheck was shooting more I think I'd there could be hope for a bounce back, but with his low SOG rate per game it seems like he's just not playing in a manner that helps him score, and it shows in his IPPs. Assuming he stays on PP1 and his OZ remains above 50%, I'd look for him to end up at roughly 55 points, with a shot at 60 if he ups his shooting rate. If his OZ% plummets though, or he's removed from PP1, then even 50 points could be a stretch. Good luck!

Question #9 (from Gordon)

I'm in a 12 team, keep 3, H2H league that counts G, A, +/-, PPG, PPPts, SHP, SOG, FOW and HIT for skaters, and W, GA, GAA, SV and SHO for goalies. Rosters are 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2UTIL, and 2G, with 5 Bench and 2 IR spots. My team currently consists of:

F – Logan Couture (C), J.T. Miller (C, LW), Oliver Bjorkstrand (LW, RW), Brady Tkachuk (LW), Jesse Puljujarvi (RW), Sam Bennett (C, LW), Jesper Bratt (LW, RW), Robert Thomas (C, RW), Alex DeBrincat (LW, RW), Nathan MacKinnon (C), Pierre-Luc Dubois (C), Sam Reinhart (C, RW)

D – Charlie McAvoy, Neal Pionk, Darnell Nurse

G – Jacob Markstrom, Elvis Merzlikens, Linus Ullmark

As I write this, I'm in third place and my biggest issue is deciding who to drop/trade to make space for the imminent returns of MacKinnon and Nurse. Reinhart seems to be the obvious first choice, but I've been trying to give him some time to gel with a new team, and he was a higher pick so I'm reluctant to get rid of him for nothing. The second choice seems even more difficult. Ullmark has not been great but I think I need to keep a third goalie. Bratt and Zegras are my most recent pickups, but both seem to be doing great, and between them and Robert Thomas I would not be performing as well as I am. 

What would you do in my shoes? Who would your drops be? Or do you think I should explore trading, in which case who'd be players you'd look to move? Note that I do have to make a drop for Nurse despite the fact that I have fewer than four active D, as my bench is full and I have no one else who qualifies for IR.

You mention that you're reluctant to drop Reinhart because he was a high pick. That is something I see too many fantasy GMs doing, namely finding it hard to part with a player because they invested an early draft pick on them. But you have to avoid that mentality. Once the puck drops on game one, draft pick slots are irrelevant unless it's a keeper where the round a player was picked determines where he gets kept. In those cases there should be more reluctance to drop a player who was picked later, rather than earlier, for fear of that player turning things around and making for a good retention.

As for whether it makes sense to drop Reinhart, he'd been put onto the third line prior to the injury to Aleksander Barkov. He's also not been locked into PP1, plus his ice time is well below what it was in his successful seasons. I think Bratt should fare better over the rest of 2021-22 due to better deployment, so Reinhart, despite the potential and positional flexibility he offers, should be one of the drops.

Who should the other drop be? I'd say Dubois. He started out strong, but as I noted in my most recent Goldipucks column it was bound not to last. He's a fine player; but I like the idea of Zegras, who is faring better by the day and has only Ryan Getzlaf to contend with, who before getting injured had looked great but was unlikely to maintain his pace at his age, more than Dubois, who was unsustainably hot and behind a true #1 center in Mark Scheifele, who started slow but has a vice grip on the #1 center spot. Yes, there's a risk of Zegras hitting a rookie wall; but his time in the NHL last season cuts against that. Plus, he gives you more positional flexibility than Dubois.

If you're concerned about dropping one or both of them, however, you can try to do a two for one trade to make room for one of your players coming off IR. If you were to do that, tops on the list of guys to move would be Couture. He's rounded back into form after a weak 2020-21; however, he's not getting younger and I think he, as well as the entire Sharks team, are overachieving. I'd also consider dangling Puljujarvi and/or Bennett's names out there. Both are seemingly rounding into form after early career struggles; and while it may be worrisome to trade guys who are in such great spots as those two, I'm not sure they can get much better than they are now and they could get worse. Look no further than Pool Party being relegated to the third line recently, albeit only briefly. Another GM might not see it that way and pay a premium for one or both, making it tempting to put them on the trade block.

My recommendation would be drop Reinhart and Dubois, or, if you want to keep one of them, then package Couture plus either Bennett or Pool Party via trade. In return I'd try to land a defenseman to shore up that area, as you seem to have plenty of depth at forward. I tend to agree that owning three goalies in a league with these parameters makes sense. Good luck!

Question #10 (from Amelia)

I'm in a 12 team league with categories of G(3), A(2), PPPts(1), SHP(2), HIT(0.2), BLK(0.3), SOG(0.2), GWG(1), W(3), L(-2), SV(0.22), GA(-1.75), SO(3), Start(1). I dropped Jared McCann for Blake Wheeler, Pavel Zacha for Josh Anderson, and, due to negative goalie points hurting me a lot, Thatcher Demko for Jake Oettinger. What are your thoughts on these moves? Would you have made them if you were in my shoes?

I spoke about both Oettinger and Demko above. Oettinger deserves to be in the NHL for the rest of this season, and probably to be the #1 netminder for the Stars. The same arguably could've been said after 2020-21, and yet the Stars nevertheless opted to ink Braden Holtby to a deal. Lurking in the picture too is Ben Bishop, whom we don't know if he's healthy or will be. It might actually be a good thing for Oettinger if Bishop was healthy, as his price tag would almost force the team to run with him and Oettinger, who's less expensive than Holtby and Anton Khudobin, one or both of whom would be traded or sent down. As it stands, however, it looks like Dallas is playing it slow and cautious with Oettinger. You need to hope Holtby and Anton Khudobin play poorly enough, or perhaps Bishop returns, as otherwise Oettinger could be on the outside looking in, at least with respect to the rest of this season. Demko stands to benefit from the Vancouver shake-up. Even now Demko likely is doing better than he seems, as was shown above. All things considered, I probably would've stood pat with Demko.

I also discussed Wheeler above, where I said I think he should improve. McCann has played well, but not to an extent that he's indispensible. His ice time is still not great overall or on the PP, so accordingly he has a points ceiling, which, over the rest of the season, probably is lower than that of Wheeler. This was a good move in my book.

For the Zacha for Anderson move, it's somewhat moot now that Anderson is week to week. Even before that had occurred, I think I still wouldn't have opted for him. Zacha is entrenched in the top six, while Anderson could slide between the second and third lines. Zacha also sees more PP time. Anderson has twice as many hits; but in the other peripherals they're pretty close, or Zacha holds an edge. To me the better PP1 deployment for Zacha, plus his still very good hits total, and a SOG rate comparable to Anderson, not to mention a downside of 50-60 points, likely would've had me inclined to keep Zacha over Anderson, who let's not forget has yet to even have a season of a 50 point pace and in fact only once has averaged a point per every other game plus entering this season, plus entering this season had a career total of PPPts that was only two less than Zacha had in just 50 games last season.

All this having been said, I don't think either of the two moves I wouldn't have made were "bad" moves per se, assuming, of course, that Anderson was healthy. Moreover, if you were able to make moves like this then other players should be or become available, allowing you to perhaps land on a better player than Anderson and to replace Oettinger if the Stars do play the waiting game with him. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.