Wild West: Early Trade Targets
Grant Campbell
2021-12-13
The NHL trade deadline is March 21st, 2022, but it is never too early to look at some trade targets in mid-December. I'm going to focus on the one or two players per team that might be available or sought after by other teams. These players might not be dealt before the deadline, but the window is currently open.
Anaheim Ducks – Currently Buyers ($10.6 million of cap space)
This is the last year that the Ducks will have the cap hit of $6.875 million for Ryan Kesler on their books, but they have one year remaining for Corey Perry at $2 million. They will have plenty of cap space for the 2022-23 season as they have just less than $41 million available currently.
Teams will come gunning for Rickard Rakell who will be unrestricted at the end of the season and only has a salary cap hit of $3.79 million. His cap hit will be closer to $5 or 6 million next year. The emergence of Troy Terry has given the Ducks more options and the team should look to get out from under the two years remaining for Jakob Silfverberg at $5.25 million after this season and re-sign Rakell. Silfverberg has a modified no-trade clause (M-NTC) that allows him to submit a list of 12 teams he cannot be traded to.
If the team is still in the playoff chase, I would think they might move Sam Steel for a more consistent player in return or a draft pick/prospect. If the Ducks fall out of contention, they should look to move Hampus Lindholm, Kevin Shattenkirk and Josh Manson as these three will get the most value in return and are somewhat expendable for the salaries they have or will get.
Arizona Coyotes – Sellers ($7.8 million of cap space)
It is not surprising to see this team has just over $29 million of contract committed for the 2022-23 season. With their recent property tax issues, it is fairly apparent that this team has cash flow issues. They do need to get to the cap floor of approximately $60.2 to 60.5 million next season.
The most intriguing name to be dealt on the Coyotes is Phil Kessel who is in the last year of his $8 million AAV eight-year contract. At 34-years of age, his play has declined this season a little, but the Coyotes are also struggling to score much as a team. The Coyotes won't want to bring back term in return for Kessel, but they might bring back an expensive expiring contract, along with a prospect and/or picks.
Shayne Gostisbehere is signed for another season in Phoenix at $4.5 million AAV and has performed much better than I would have thought with the Coyotes. The club might want to sell high on Gostisbehere and get something in return this year rather than next as there are no guarantees his success will continue in the desert.
The status of this team seems up in the air, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some of the longer-term contracts moved to clear future debt from the books. This might include one or more of Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz or Jacob Chychrun. Other teams will certainly look to underpay for Keller and Chychrun.
Calgary Flames – Buyers ($600k of cap space)
The Flames have about $30.2 million in cap space for next season, but that doesn't include very expensive contracts for Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau and to a lesser extent Andrew Mangiapane. If the team is playing well all three will be back next season.
The roster in Calgary is pretty strong at the moment and if healthy all they will look to do is get some depth on defence and improve the bottom-six for the forwards. They have an extra 2nd round 2022 draft pick to offer.
Chicago Blackhawks – Sellers (no cap space)
The Blackhawks will look to build upon the trade that brought Seth Jones to Chicago before this season. They have improved this season over last and will need to transition from Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews sooner than later.
Trading Dylan Strome at his lowest value doesn't make sense, but it's becoming increasingly obvious that things aren't working out in Chicago any longer for him. He becomes a restricted free agent at the end of this season and I doubt the Blackhawks are going to want to pay him more than his current $3 million AAV.
Marc-Andre Fleury has got his game back in recent weeks and even though he has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a list of 10 teams he can't be traded to, the Blackhawks will surely deal him at some point to get value. The tricky part will be moving his $7 million salary to a reduced market.
Colorado Avalanche – Buyers ($26k cap space)
With a disappointing exit from the playoffs last season, the Avalanche will look to get to the Finals this year. They have Erik Johnson back from injury and Bowen Byram has emerged while he has been healthy this season. In my opinion, this makes Samuel Girard and his $5 million salary expendable to help the team improve in another area (perhaps goaltending).
The same holds with the emergence of Alex Newhook and his ability to play up the lineup. The team will need to make a tough decision for next year with Nazem Kadri. The Avalanche will need to improve their depth to get to the promised land this season. More than likely the team stands pat and makes some minor deals unless Darcy Kuemper continues to struggle then they might have to consider bringing in someone like Marc-Andre Fleury.
Dallas Stars – Buyers no matter what (no cap space)
With contracts to Joe Pavelski, Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg and Braden Holtby all expiring after this season, much like last year, the Stars will need to push all in to get into the playoffs and make decisions on these players at the end of the year.
With Ben Bishop unable to continue his career, the team needs to get some value for Anton Khudobin or Holtby and get some help on defence or at forward and get down to two goalies. Holtby would generate the best return currently and hopefully give them a better option than Joel Kiviranta or Tanner Kero at forward or Andrej Sekera on defence.
Ideally, this team would look to blow things up and look at the short-term futures of Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn.
Edmonton Oilers – Buyers (no cap space)
The Oilers only have $4.4 million of projected space next season already and need to re-sign Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto as they are both RFAs at the end of the season. The fourth-line of the Oilers is currently among the weakest in the NHL and will need to be improved for this team to have any chance in the playoffs.
With Stuart Skinner playing well in goal, this might make Mike Smith or Mikko Koskinen expendable, but the Oilers might want to keep three goalies to cover the fragility of Smith. The Oilers might also look outside the organization here as well.
Improving the fourth line should be addition by subtraction, but perhaps the team makes prospects or picks available to bolster the whole bottom six.
Los Angeles Kings – Have moved into the seller's crowd ($680k of cap space)
The Kings had a very good start but are starting to level out a little and this should translate into being sellers. Impending unrestricted free agents are Dustin Brown, Andreas Athanasiou and Alexander Edler. Brown has an M-NTC that includes a seven-team no-trade list, but he's been a King for his whole career and is the team captain, so it's doubtful he would leave. That leaves Athanasiou and Edler as the two most likely to be dealt assuming both are healthy at the deadline.
The other long-time King that they might consider trading is Jonathan Quick who has another year remaining in Los Angeles. He has been excellent this season and it would be a shock to see him in any other uniform, but this would be the definition of selling high.
Minnesota Wild – Buyers ($2.26 million of cap space)
The Wild have just over $4.7 million this season and $12.6 million in dead cap space next season from buying out Ryan Suter and Zach Parise along just over $14.7 million in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Wow, that is a lot of salary tied up but hard to argue with the success the Wild have had this year so far, but it will inevitably bite them in the future if not later this year. I don't see the Wild doing much in terms of trading any roster players as they have very few holes in their current roster, so more than likely they would use their prospects or draft picks instead to add some depth.
Nashville Predators – Buyers for the moment ($10 million in cap space)
The Predator's once much-admired defence is a little weaker than in prior years, but any team that can wheel out Roman Josi 25 minutes per game will be ok. Nashville will need to make some big franchise decisions this year as Filip Forsberg is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. If things go south before the deadline, does the team look to sell Matt Duchene and/or Ryan Johansen at the best they have been for several years? It's doubtful, but how the team does in the next few months and how things move forward with Forsberg will have huge ramifications for this team.
San Jose Sharks – Sellers ($3.6 million in cap space)
The obvious trade target for the Sharks is to move Evander Kane and his $7 million AAV that expires in 2024-25. It's hard to think that they will get anything more than pennies on the dollar for Kane, and they will more than likely have to give up something to trade him. To do that, they might have to bring Kane back into the league now that his suspension is over to showcase him.
Kevin Labanc and Radim Simek are two Sharks that aren't playing to a level commensurate with their salary cap hits, $4.75 million for Labanc and $2.25 million for Simek. The roster is so top-heavy with Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture, Brent Burns, Marc-Eduoard Vlasic, Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl that it can't afford passengers.
Seattle Kraken – Sellers ($7.5 million of cap space)
The Kraken should be a landing spot for bad salaries that expire this season or next as they have a bit of space. The team will look to find a destination for Mark Giordano who has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a list of 19 teams he can go to. His value is certainly diminishing but a playoff team would love to add him to their backend.
I'm sure that the Kraken would entertain offers for most of their roster at this point, but will try to move Calle Jarnkrok, Marcus Johansson and Riley Sheahan who are all impending UFAs. Unfortunately, none of these players have had great seasons, so the prices will be lower than Seattle would have liked.
St. Louis Blues – Buyers at the moment ($5k of cap space which is the equivalence to a nickel in your pocket)
David Perron becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and after his last few years, he won't be signing at $4 million AAV but more than likely something around $5.5 to 6 million AAV. If the Blues aren't in the playoff hunt, they might trade him.
Last season there were rumours that Vladimir Tarasenko had played his last game as a Blue and that he had asked to be traded. This year he has played like his old self and is signed at $7.5 million until 2022-23 as is Ryan O'Reilly. Both Tarasenko and O'Reilly are 30 years old now and Perron is 33, so the window has to close at some point.
Vancouver Canucks – Sellers (no cap space)
As entertaining as the Canucks have been since Bruce Boudreau was hired, this team is very unlikely to get into the playoffs this year (unless they run at a 100-point pace for the balance of the season).
Roberto Luongo's $3 million cap recapture penalty comes off the books which will give the Canucks just over $10 million in cap space next year.
The new regime will need to make some tough decisions on some key players like Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller. Boeser will be an RFA at the end of the year but is guaranteed an annual salary of at least $7.5 million if the Canucks qualify him and re-sign. Those are some pretty big numbers for a fairly one-dimensional scoring winger. Both Horvat and Miller have contracts that expire at the end of 2022-23 that will make them UFAs. I can see Horvat coming back and re-signing but I think the Canucks will need to trade Miller before then.
The lone UFA this season that has some trade value is Tyler Motte and the Canucks will try to re-sign him. Jaroslav Halak has a no-movement clause and would need to waive.
Vegas Golden Knights – Sellers by necessity (no cap space)
The Golden Knights are about $10 million over the cap as soon as Jack Eichel comes of the LTIR. They need to make some more moves and some big deals at that.
I think they will look to move Reilly Smith to free up $5 million in cap space as he is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. He's not a center, but I can't see them finding a suitor for William Karlsson at $5.9 million AAV until 2026-27. Chandler Stephenson is the other center in the current top-six but he's a bargain until the end of 2023-24 at $2.75 million AAV and he can also play on the wing.
The other player I think they will find a new home for is Evgeni Dadonov to free up the other $5 million and get them to $10 million.
Both Smith and Dadonov have been good for the Golden Knights so if they can come up with another scenario that doesn't involve Shea Theodore or Robin Lehner I'm sure they will go that route.
Winnipeg Jets – Buyers/Sellers on the fence (no cap space)
Losing Blake Wheeler to a longer-term injury will not help the Jets get into the playoffs this season, but if any team can weather his injury the Jets deep top-six can.
Paul Stastny and Andrew Copp are unrestricted free agents at the end of this season and it is unlikely that the Jets will be able to afford Copp as he will probably get $4-5 million AAV moving forward, especially as a relatively young UFA. If the Jets are in the playoff race they are likely to stand pat.
Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.