Ramblings: Flames Outbreak; Shot Improvements for Marchand, Kaliyev, Raddysh; Malkin Returning Soon – December 14
Michael Clifford
2021-12-14
The only NHL game was postponed due to COVID issues, so there is a lot of time for updates, news bits, and some research. We have all three in today's Ramblings.
First, Calgary does have a COVID outbreak on the team. There are numerous players in protocols, as well as coaches, so the league has gone beyond just postponing the Monday night game, they're postponing Calgary's games for the week:
Get your boosters, please.
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At this point, we have basically two months played from this season, and that makes a nice split for us. We can look at the first half of the season (so far), the second half, and where the changes have come. For today, we are going to look at shot-rate changes. We will be using the data from Natural Stat Trick, as well. Finally, players will have to have played at least 50 minutes in each half to try and filter out some of the players that may have a tiny sample skewing everything. I mean, we're only one-third of the way into the season and we're splitting that season in half, so all these samples are small. You get what I mean.
Either way, let's look at some guys that have seen a big shot attempt rate (iCF/60) jump over the last month-ish of play, compared to the first month, at all strengths.
The biggest change in shot rate for any left winger in the NHL came from Brad Marchand. For the first month, it was about 10.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes, but is over 19 shot attempts per 60 over the last month. While that shot rate is very unlikely to maintain itself, it is nice to see his shots rebound. With older players, there's always this nagging "is this it?" voice in the back of the heads of fantasy owners. Well, it's not, as he's not up to 2.9 shot per game, higher than either of his last two seasons. Some people are worried about Boston, but I see a team that just went 3-0-2, has moved into a playoff spot, and have played fewer games than anyone else in their division. Marchand has turned around his shot rate, and the Bruins will be just fine.
Bruce Boudreau may have changed the fortunes of the Canucks, but it's still very early in his tenure and they have a ways to go. All that aside, Garland's turnaround started before Boudreau arrived in Vancouver, so if the team continues to improve, that just means more good things for Garland.
He was one of the biggest improvers in shot rate for right wingers, finishing behind Julien Gauthier of the Rangers. (Which, we should mention him here: 19 shots over his last 10 games, skating under 11 minutes a night. If even 10% of those shots start going on, that third line could be great, but I digress.)
Over the 13 games in this recent sample, he has 51 shots on goal, or nearly four shots on goal per game. That is just an astounding rate, especially when we consider how much the Canucks have struggled for most of that time. The concern is ice time, as he's down under 16 minutes in six December games, the lowest of any month this season. Four shots per game at 15:45 a night is nearly impossible. In that sense, he needs more ice time or there is a shot decline coming. He can still manage three shots a night, though, so this is far from a non-valuable fantasy asset.
More than the shot rate might be McCann's new role. He has jumped to the top line with Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle, Seattle's two best scoring wingers. But to go with his new-found talented flanks is that improved shot rate, sitting at 19.9 shot attempts per 60 minutes over the last month. That is probably too high to sustain itself, but he has seen his shot rate climb for five straight years now, sitting at a career-best 16.02/60 minutes. While 19-and-change may be a bridge too far, sitting over 16 per 60 minutes would put him inside the 90th percentile of NHLers in shot rate. That is, uh, just fine for fantasy purposes.
Like Garland, ice time is the issue. McCann has played over 18 minutes just twice this year, and hasn't cracked 19 since the first game of the season. It will be hard for him to rack up huge volumes of shots and points skating 16-17 minutes. However, like Garland, he will still have a lot of fantasy relevance and the additional shots are a nice new wrinkle to his profile.
Arthur Kaliyev
Anyone that reads my writing knows I'm a huge Kaliyev fan and I even did a dive on his season to date a couple weeks ago. All we are waiting for now is for him to get moved to the top, or second, line, as probably should have happened a month ago. It really is frustrating to see him play well and not even get a shot higher in the lineup but again, I digress.
He has seen a big jump in his shot rate, and considering that's his best asset, this is great news for fantasy owners. He is averaging 2.5 shots per game over his last 11 games despite just 13:15 a night in TOI. I think he can at least maintain two shots per game at this TOI level, but again, I really want to see him higher in the lineup; Anze Kopitar doesn't have a goal in over a month and one point in five games. Maybe he needs some help.
Taylor Raddysh
The Tampa Bay Lightning, am I right? How do they do it? Truly? How? It seems every other prospect eventually turns into a useful NHLer. I suppose it's still too early to say for Raddysh, but he's been a full-time player all year for them, has jumped to the top line in times of injury, with six points in his last seven games. He is up to 26 shots in his last 14 games, skating under 13:30 a night. His shot rate isn't elite – over 12 attempts per 60 minutes – but it's at least passable for his role. Now that he's on the top line, he's worth keeping an eye on. (It may not be for longer, as Brayden Point was in a non-contact jersey at practice.)
What he looks like long-term, we'll see. He was over a point-per-game in the AHL last year, so maybe there's something here. He is shooting more and clearly the coaching staff likes him, so, yeah, keep an eye on Taylor Raddysh. The Lightning could have another gem two-way winger in the lineup now in the Palat-vein.
Count me among the people that thinks Boqvist is well on his way to being a top-pair defenceman. He has already shown some excellent puck-moving skills and there have been improvements defensively (though there needs to be more in both areas). He has 18 shots in his last 13 games, playing about 16 minutes a night. That shot rate isn't bad considering his ice time, as even 20 minutes should bring him well above two shots per game. He is injured now, which is a bad break for him and the team, but there were a lot of good signs before that. He could very well be a big piece of this blue line as soon as next year.
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Nicklas Backstrom was skating in lines at practice on Monday for Washington:
I was looking over the NHL standings on Sunday, and it struck me that Washington is tied for the league lead in points, but have zero games from Backstrom, nine from Anthony Mantha (plus one where he was injured), and 12 from T.J. Oshie. That is a grand total of 22 games from what could effectively be their entire second line, and yet they're at the top of the league. How scary is this Washington team? They are 12th by expected goal share over the last month without those players. This is a legit Cup contender in every sense of those words.
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Tyler Bertuzzi was back at practice for the Red Wings:
As with all players returning from COVID, there may be a bit of time needed for his legs to come back but this is a big boost for the team. He was back on the top line and the top PP unit, giving the roster an injection of both talent and toughness that they need.
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Winnipeg has new lines without Blake Wheeler:
This could be important for both lines. Wheeler has one goal this year and has struggled defensively. Andrew Copp to the top line surely gives them a much better defensive winger, if not an offensive one. It also gives that second line another playmaker, which I'm always in favour of. It'll be interesting to see how these work.
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Evgeni Malkin was on one of the power-play units for the Penguins:
Generally speaking, the power play is one of the final steps before returning to action. The Penguins are at home Tuesday and Friday to Montreal and Buffalo, respectively. Those are good games for him to find his hands and game wind, having missed the entire season to date. Just keep an eye for updates, because they'll probably come soon.
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A lot of St. Louis updates:
A lot of that seem like paper moves, for cap and roster movement purposes. Perron had been skating in actual line combinations in practice of late, and if I’m not mistaken, can return next week from the LTIR (someone correct me if I’m wrong there). Schenn is a big hit as that now leaves them down two centres, but that means guaranteed minutes for Ivan Barbashev. He may be worth a roster spot in fantasy for the time being, depending who needs to be dropped.