Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. COVID continues to rear its ugly head over both sports and the world in general. Postponing games can’t be an easy decision. There are the business reasons, which are obvious (no gate revenue). Perhaps a pause is needed until after Christmas in order to stop the COVID spread, but will the COVID situation be any better after the holidays? It’s possible that we could be looking at an even longer layoff, if the graphs showing the rapid spread of the omicron variant in other parts of the world play out in North America. Either way, just be prepared for an early holiday break from everything NHL. It sucks, but that’s the situation that we are in. (dec18)

2. Friday had no shortage of news, as Paul Maurice suddenly announced his resignation as the Jets’ coach. Earlier in the day I wrote the Fantasy Take. We didn’t have to wait very long for the Dave Lowry era to begin, as the Jets faced Washington on Friday. 

The even-strength lines appeared to be put into a blender when compared to the last three game lines, but the power-play lines didn’t appear to change at all. That’s bad news for those hoping that Nikolaj Ehlers would receive an instant power-play upgrade, as Ehlers remained on the second-unit power play. The good news is that Ehlers recorded assists on both Jets’ goals and took seven shots in 19 minutes of icetime. He might get his promotion another day. (dec18)

3. Evan Rodrigues was a throw-in in the trade that sent Conor Sheary back to Pittsburgh for Dominik Kahun at the 2020 deadline, but he has been much more than that for the Penguins. Facing the Buffalo team that traded him away, Rodrigues continued his breakout season with another goal and nine shots – six of which he took in the first period alone. Rodrigues has 23 points in 29 games (a 65-point pace), which includes seven points and a plus-6 in his last five games. Rodrigues also leads the injury-depleted Penguins with 98 shots. (dec18)

4. Between the offseason trade request and declining production, Vladimir Tarasenko wasn’t high on my draft list entering the season. It turns out that my leaguemates weren’t trying very hard to draft him either, so I was able to select him after pick 100 in two of my leagues when finding a right wing that could score became difficult.

After being concerned that I still picked him too high, Tarasenko has turned out to be one of my better picks, as he is producing at a near point-per-game pace (28 points in 30 games) so far this season. Tarasenko scored two goals on Friday, giving him five points in his last two games and nine points in his last six games. After multiple surgeries, his shoulder appears to be fine again, as he is back to shooting the puck with regularity (3.4 SOG/GP). Pavel Buchnevich assisted on both of Tarasenko’s goals. He has also been hot recently, scoring 17 points in his last 12 games. (dec18)

5. Ivan Barbashev was the third man on that line and scored a goal and an assist, giving him 13 points in his last 11 games. Barbashev has had an increase in value on that scoring line and also first-unit power-play time recently, so he’s worth an add at the moment if he still happens to be available. That’s especially the case in bangers leagues, as he averages nearly two hits per game. Just beware of possible regression, as some of Barbashev’s advanced stats (23.4 SH%, 2.7 PTS/60, 41.7 Sec Asst%) are showing as higher than normal. (dec18)

6. Clayton Keller now has 16 points over his last 13 games. The Coyotes’ leading scorer might be an afterthought fantasy-wise (just 22 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues) because he plays in the desert, but he’s at least trying to make things happen with the lack of high-end talent Coyotes management has provided him. Put him on a better team and you’ll appreciate his skills. (dec18)

7. In Boston, the player most hurt from the COVID absences might be David Pastrnak, and it’s not coming at the right time. Pastrnak is now without a goal in his last seven games. The absences of Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron meant that Pasta was on a line with Taylor Hall and Charlie Coyle this past week, two players who aren’t exactly lighting it up either. Hall has no goals in his last 10 games, while Coyle has no points in his last four games.

At least Pastrnak fired seven shots, so there was no lack of trying on his part. With many much-lower-than-expected advanced stats, most notably a 7.0 SH% and 15.4 Sec Asst%, Pastrnak might be worth a buy-low offer. Just keep in mind that the slump may not end until Marchand and Bergeron are back. (dec17)

8. Valeri Nichushkin has very quietly scored 10 goals and 16 points in just 18 games, including goals in back-to-back games. This goal and point pace is easily the best of his career, but many of his advanced stats (21.3 SH%, 13.7 5-on-5 SH%, 2.9 PTS/60) scream regression. (dec17)

9. An Islander who broke a long slump was Anthony Beauvillier. After being a healthy scratch Saturday of last week, Beauvillier recorded his first point in 15 games and first goal in 16 games – a power-play marker. Beauvillier also fired four shots, which was his second consecutive game of reaching that shot total. His advanced stats are very low at the moment, in particular a 5.2 5-on-5 SH% and 25 Sec Asst%. At this point you could probably find Beauvillier on your waiver wire. Remember that he was a much better second-half player last season and has nowhere to go but up. (dec17)

10. In 22 games under Travis Green this season, Brock Boeser scored a grand total of four goals. In six games under Bruce Boudreau, Boeser has already scored five goals, including a pair last Thursday.

When he first took over, Boudreau reportedly had a chat with Boeser telling him he needed to shoot the puck more, and Boeser listened. Boeser has taken at least four shots in four of his last six games. Like many Canucks, Boeser is feeling it right now. Hopefully you didn’t bail on Boeser when he was slumping.

Whether the coach is Green or Boudreau, J.T. Miller has been scoring all season (32 points in 31 games). He has at least a point in all six Boudreau-coached games, including a goal and two assists on Thursday. (dec17)

11. Corey Sznajder is one of the most popular game trackers around. He tracks zone entries and exits both at the team and player level, shots, shot assists, dump-ins and retrievals, and a whole lot more. By my knowledge, he is the only person who does this for every team, so if his work were to ever disappear, we’d lose a lot of knowledge. People can support his Patrion here.

He released his 2021-22 data to date and I thought I would go through some of the important notes. They could be teams or players, but I will keep it fantasy-relevant. Just be warned we are talking about a quarter of a season, so the samples are small.

For today, I want to talk 5-on-5 shot contributions. For this, we mean shots on goal and shot assists, or passes leading to shots. Players that can do both are among the most talented in the league and generally are very valuable for fantasy. Guys like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Roope Hintz, Nikolaj Ehlers, Timo Meier, David Pastrnak, and Nathan MacKinnon are all relative outliers by both metrics (McDavid’s shot rate is the debatable one). 

So, which guys are relative outliers by both metrics so far this year that we may not think of as elite talents right now? Let's mention Bjorkstrand, Robertson and Arvidsson below, follow the Ramblings link for more… (dec16)

12. Oliver Bjorkstrand: Truth be told, on a per-minute basis, by shots and shot assists, Bjorkstrand’s closest comparable is William Nylander. Another player down this list, Jason Robertson, also, more or less, fits the bill.

It isn’t anything new for Bjorkstrand, really. Evolving Hockey had him as a good play driver for years, and his shooting talent likely led to a lot more goals scored than should have been. However, he was often stuck on the second line, having never skated 18 minutes a game for a season, and John Tortorella’s Blue Jackets were defence-first. That is not the case anymore, and Bjorkstrand is off to a great start with 23 points in 27 games.

While more skilled players would be nice, Bjorkstrand is making good on promise he’s shown for years. At 26 years old, he could easily have his best season ever. (dec16)

13. Jason Robertson: Just wanted to briefly mention Robertson because this is two years in a row of very good comparables: William Nylander and Brady Tkachuk this year, and Gabriel Landeskog and Alex Tuch last year. The only real concern is the quality of the team and staying healthy, not his performance. But, he's skating with Hintz, who is very good at both skills himself.

Viktor Arvidsson: Finally, we need to mention Arvidsson. After a couple of tough, injured seasons, he’s on pace for nearly 60 points this year, and that’s while shooting under 8%. If (when) that starts to correct, he’s going to be scoring a lot more.

As for his playmaking, the shot-assist rate is in line with guys like Bjorkstrad, Reinhart, and Keller. He’s also shooting at the same rate as guys like Bergeron and Svechnikov. Put it all together, and he hasn’t been far off from the Bergeron/Bjorkstrand-types this year. His problem is his shooting, and once that turns around, it’s all-systems-go for Arvidsson the rest of the way. This type of profile is nothing new for him, so it’ll be exciting to see what he can do the rest of the way. (dec16)

14. The date of the Midseason Guide is set for January 15. This Guide comes with your Ultimate Fantasy Pack or Gold/Platinum subscriptions. It does not come with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack nor the Silver subs. You can pre-order it here.

15. Logan O’Connor is seeing a bit of a breakout this year. Injuries in Colorado have seen O’Connor bounce around the lineup a little, but they have also given him the chance to show that he can play with the top skilled guys. This is his second season in a row with 20+ games, and an even strength IPP of over 60% (last year was 100!). His overall IPP this year though is being held down by his power play IPP of zero, though it’s tough to fault him for that as the top units in Colorado are just overflowing with talent.

Overall, we’re seeing O’Connor’s ice time, offensive zone start percentage, and his production rise as time goes along. All of the indicators are there, and the team likely won’t be able to retain Andre Burakovsky next year, meaning there will be room in the top-six for him. (dec15)

16. Tampa Bay Lightning, am I right? How do they do it? Truly? How? It seems every other prospect eventually turns into a useful NHLer. I suppose it’s still too early to say for Taylor Raddysh, but he’s been a full-time player all year for them, has jumped to the top line in times of injury, with eight points in his last nine games. He is up to 30 shots in his last 16 games, skating under 13:30 a night. His shot rate isn’t elite, but it’s at least passable for his role. He’s worth keeping an eye on (it may not be for longer, though, as Brayden Point is getting close).

What he looks like long-term, we’ll see. He was over a point-per-game in the AHL last year, so maybe there’s something here. He is shooting more and clearly the coaching staff likes him, so, yeah, keep an eye on Raddysh. The Lightning could have another gem two-way winger in the lineup now in the Palat-vein. (dec14)

17. Count me among the people that think Adam Boqvist is well on his way to being a top-pair defenceman. He has already shown some excellent puck-moving skills and there have been improvements defensively (though there needs to be more in both areas). He has 18 shots in his last 13 games, playing about 16 minutes a night. That shot rate isn’t bad considering his ice time, as even 20 minutes should bring him well above two shots per game. He is injured now, which is a bad break for him and the team, but there were a lot of good signs before that. He could very well be a big piece of this blue line as soon as next year. (dec14)

18. Hotshot prospect Philip Tomasino has four points in his last nine games. That’s not a big deal, but what’s notable is that his ice time was up to a career-high 15:16 in his last game and that he played with Mikael Granlund and Filip Forsberg. So, no more of this Nick Cousins/Thomas Novak crap. The line I’d actually like to see more of is when he plays with Eeli Tolvanen and Ryan Johansen. They’ve played 19:36 together this season and have a CF% of 65.7%, which is his most successful result in terms of generating more chances for than against. 

Tomasino is a fantastic prospect and is going to spend the next two or three years trying to show that he’ll either be a first-line player or a second-line player. Odds were pointing to a second-line upside, but as a pro he has done nothing but overachieve and I think those first-line odds are starting to improve with each game. Quality linemates is a nice step forward. (dec13)

19. Ben Bishop won’t be able to play any longer. The veteran goalie was attempting to come back from knee surgery and hadn’t played since August 2020. Bishop recently completed an AHL conditioning assignment, but he gave up eight goals, likely figuring that the knee wouldn’t allow him to compete at the highest level any longer. It’s an unfortunate end to the career of a one-time standout goalie.

In its current state, the Stars goalie situation isn’t affected a whole lot because Bishop hasn’t played this season. Braden Holtby should continue to receive the bulk of the starts, while Jake Oettinger remains with the big club. Anton Khudobin hasn’t played in nearly a month and was even placed on waivers last week. Given the tight cap situations of many teams, I don’t imagine Khudobin’s $3.33 million salary (signed through 2022-23) will be easy to move. (dec12)

20. Evander Kane was held without a point in his AHL debut last week, although he took five shots. I don’t know where it goes from here with Kane, who could well be ready now and confidently affirmed that in an interview after the game. Based on his multicategory league ability, he will be a must-add in fantasy leagues if he returns to the NHL this season either with the Sharks or another team. Kane had a ton of off-ice issues this past offseason, so we can’t believe with any certainty that he will be back this season. He is 27 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues, so a few fantasy teams have already attempted to be proactive. (dec12)

21. Petr Mrazek made his first start since late October last week – just his third start of the season. Mrazek stopped 31 of 35 shots he faced in earning a 5-4 win over Chicago. After a strong start, Jack Campbell has struggled somewhat over the past couple weeks, allowing at least three goals in four of his last five starts. A healthy Mrazek will help the Leafs manage Campbell’s workload better. The problem is that Mrazek has been so injury-prone that he has played only a combined 15 games over the past two seasons. (dec12)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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