Capped: Christmas Wish List for Buyers and Sellers, Part 2
Logan Doyle
2021-12-23
Welcome back for part two. You can read part one of my Christmas wish-list for buyers and sellers article here.
And, Yikes! What a week it has been. I wish I were referring to a couple wild and crazy trades or huge signings but I'm not. More games have been cancelled then played the past few days. Now we head into an extended pause over the holidays. I'm glad I don't have to explain potential implications of this on scheduling.
I see no reason to lead with a lot of preamble so, let’s jump right in.
Arizona Coyotes – 29 Games Played, 14 Points
Last
Wishlist: Sell everything – picks, prospects and young players desired.
You know that saying, 'if it's not nailed down…' – Expect that to be the philosophy of Bill Armstrong the first few months of 2022.
The only player they should not trade is Jacob Chychrun. He seems to be the only sure fire building block this team has identified. Yet, he's not nailed down either. Like Chychrun, Clayton Keller is not far removed from this untouchable list. It will take premium packages to move either. Beyond these two, anything goes.
With fourteen unrestricted free agents it's a no-brainer they will be busy. Let's start with their biggest fish. We can hate on him all you want but he was a catalyst in Pittsburgh winning back to back Stanley Cups. He was even given serious Conn Smythe consideration in both Cup runs, Phil Kessel.
His cap hit with Arizona this year is $6.8M but only $1M real salary. This is the one player they would be willing to retain 50 percent of salary. At $3.4M he becomes a well priced top six winger, or an incredibly dangerous third line winger that will create matchup havoc for opponents. The line for his services is going to be long. Arizona should receive a first rounder and more if they play their cards right. If they don't get a first, I expect multiple pieces in a larger package.
For our needs, he still carries a $8M cap hit until the end of the year and will be significantly cheaper to acquire. Kessel performs when it counts the most. His offensive production should jump when he is traded. I also expect Kessel to sign next year for close to 50 percent less for 2022-23 with a contender. There could be some hidden value moving forward with a plummeting salary.
Expect Arizona to ship out Dmitri Jaskin, Ryan Dzingel as well. They’ll also shop Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussell, Travis Boyd, Ilya Lyubushkin hard. Beagle and Rousell will be very hard sells.
Shayne Gostisbehere has done enough to draw interest from several teams. I mentioned last week a team like Minnesota could have interest. They lack a real power-play quarterback and are deep enough defensively they can provide him with sheltered minutes.
I think they'll be shopping Nick Schmaltz as well. With five years at $5.85M remaining on his contract this is probably more of an off-season trade. The simple fact they traded Connor Garland makes me believe Schmaltz is also on the block.
As for 2022-23, rinse, wash, repeat. They'll sign a bunch more unrestricted free agents and attempt to flip as many as possible at the next trade deadline.
Montreal Canadiens – 31 Games Played, 17 Points
Division – Last, Conference – Last
Wishlist: A large retool
I'm not sure what the bigger surprise was, their Stanley Cup run last year or how bad they have been this year. Marc Bergevin built a really deep team that could roll four fast grinding lines at opponents. Like a lot of previous Montreal teams it still lacked a true game breaker. I don't think Montreal has had a real game breaking forward since Guy Lafleur.
A new General Manager usually means a new direction. All you have to do is look at the players Jeff Gorton drafted and acquired with the New York Rangers. He went heavy on high end skill. They won't be drafting a Jesperi Kotkaniemi type player in the top five of the 2022 draft.
You know Ben Chiarot will be near the top of trade bait boards. In most trade scenario's Chiarot will see his ice time dip. Unless a team like Toronto makes a splash, who are in need of a minute munching top four defenseman. .
Beyond Chiarot there is not much in the way of unrestricted free agent value to consider. The big question to monitor is how deep Gorton believes the cuts into this roster need to go. There are a lot of character players with two and three years remaining on their contracts that may be on the move.
Even players like Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Petry and Brendan Gallagher may be on the move.
The Canadiens are easily the most intriguing team this trade deadline. All the speculation could be for not if Gorton decides the coach that led the team to the Stanley Cup Finals has to go.
Seattle Kraken – 30 Games Played , 23 Points
Division – Last, Conference – 15th
Wishlist: Draft picks and prospects. They're building for the tomorrow.
This is more like an expansion team. Clearly, the Vegas Golden Knights were an anomaly versus the norm.
With Seattle already looking toward the future you can expect Mark Giordano to be on the move. He's an aging number one defenseman. He is going to be a potent addition to whoever acquires him at the trade deadline. That $6.75M cap hit does sting.
Giordano can still contribute, especially on the power play. This is one player I expect to see an offensive improvement if/when moved to a new team. I can't see how Ron Francis decides to re-sign his premier trade chip. Mind you, we thought there would be a slew of expansion draft side-deals and there were none.
Beyond Giordano, Calle Jarnkrok is the only other trade chip we want to pay attention to. Only in deeper pools will he become a rosterable options. They should move a couple other players in smaller deals mid-round picks, but nothing to write home about.
New York Rangers – Games Played 30, Points – 42
Division: 3rd, Conference: 5th
Wishlist: Top 4 defenceman, bottom six forward, Kappo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere to bust out.
It's scary how good the Rangers could be if Kakko and Lafreniere both break out. As it stands I don't have them in the legitimate Stanley Cup contender category for this year. They've taken a big step but they're just not there yet.
They're a strong defensive team with a lot of untapped offensive potential in that line up. I think they'll be careful buyers looking for both expiring contracts and players with term left.
I've seen rumblings the Rangers may try to work things out with Vitali Kravtsov. If the right deal comes along I doubt the Rangers hesitate in trading him. There's a lot of upside with Kravtsov, but with Kakko and Lafreniere falling into their laps, he has become more of an expendable asset.
With a little over $7M in cap space and only one point back of both the Hurricanes and Capitals, the Rangers could make a big splash.
That brings me to the end of this one. I hope you all have a fantastic holiday.
(Stats from frozentools.com and all cap info from capfriendly.com)
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